PAIR
Surebets between Duel and Polymarket
Over the period September 11 – October 11, 2026, the Dozor scanner found 79,322 surebets between Duel and Polymarket: median life 4.2 s, 14% lasted over a minute, median peak ROI 2.0%. Polymarket is an exchange: its price moves with traders’ orders rather than a bookmaker’s algorithm, so it lags behind Duel after in-game events and the gaps last longer. The pair diverges most often on the “Winner” market (70% of its surebets), mostly in CS2; 73% were found live.
| Surebets in window | 79,322 |
|---|---|
| Live | 73% |
| Median lifetime | 4.2 s |
| Over a minute | 11,319 (14%) |
| Median peak ROI | 2.0% |
| Duel | bookmaker, USD, 818,353 surebets in the window overall — page |
| Polymarket | exchange, USD, 645,309 surebets in the window overall — page |
Markets where they diverge
| Market | Surebets | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | 55,872 | 70% |
| Handicap | 11,178 | 14% |
| Total | 10,995 | 14% |
| Total kills | 1,267 | 1.6% |
| ultrakill | 10 | 0.0% |
By game
| Game | Surebets |
|---|---|
| CS2 | 48,105 |
| Dota 2 | 12,559 |
| League of Legends | 12,510 |
| Valorant | 6,090 |
| Rainbow Six | 41 |
What to check before betting on this pair
- Both books’ settlement rules for the market: overtime, walkovers, how kills are counted. The same market name does not mean the same rules.
- Both accounts use the same currency (USD), no conversion needed.
- The age of both prices in the scanner card: with a median life of 4.2 s, a surebet with a stale leg has most likely closed already.
More pairs with frequent arbs
- Olimp and Polymarket
- Duel and Olimp
- Duel and 1xBet
- 1xBet and Polymarket
- Betcity and Duel
- BetBoom and Duel
Data: Dozor surebet history for September 11 – October 11, 2026, 4,877,065 records; the method is in the article “How Long Does a Surebet Last?”. The service is analytical: it does not accept bets and does not guarantee profit. 18+.