ET Evoke
‘With US-China competition, geoeconomics is rising — it’s deployed strategically by both hegemons and smaller nations now’
Geoeconomics, the strategic use of economic leverage for geopolitical goals, is a long-standing practice now resurging. Yale's Christopher Clayton explains how nations like the US and China leverage specialized goods and financial systems. He notes that while great powers dominate, smaller nations like Taiwan can also wield influence through critical industries.
Globalisation is enhancing criminogenic asymmetries — and crimes across classes: Nikos Passas
Art crimes are increasingly sophisticated, with criminals exploiting loopholes in global financial systems and international cooperation. Professor Nikos Passas explains how 'criminogenic asymmetries' created by globalization allow for 'lawful but awful practices,' leading to an 'ebbing punishment' for art theft and laundering.
The Louvre heist was waiting to happen — as its price rises, thefts of gold are increasing: Christopher A. Marinello
A lawyer discusses the audacious Louvre jewel heist, suggesting it was inevitable due to lax security and emboldened criminals. He explains how unique jewels are easily dismantled for quick cash, unlike intact artworks. The expert also highlights new trends in gold theft and social factors contributing to increased art crime.
‘The Israel-Gaza ceasefire deal is not about Palestinians’ rights — it shows US attempts to pull the Middle East away from China’
Professor Adam Hanieh explains that the recent Israel-Palestine ceasefire is a misnomer, failing to address fundamental Palestinian rights and aiming to consolidate US dominance in the oil-rich Middle East. He highlights the shift of oil exports to China, creating an 'East-East energy axis' and influencing global rivalries.
The Israel-Palestine conflict is the last living piece of colonial history — the Middle East will alter with the energy transition: James Gelvin
Professor James Gelvin discusses the Israel-Palestine conflict's economic asymmetry and the region's limited globalization. He highlights how neoliberal policies and the IMF's influence have fueled unrest, while oil-producing nations diversify economies. Gelvin also notes shifting US public opinion on the conflict, influenced by Israeli actions and a growing focus on human rights.
‘Demanding sanctions on India for Russian oil reflects the US not doing what it should for Ukraine’
Bruce Jentleson highlights the limited success of economic sanctions, as target nations employ counter-strategies and extreme objectives often fail. He describes a new "Copernican world" where countries pursue their own national interests, moving beyond a US-centric view. Global cooperation through international institutions is essential to prevent wars in this multipolar era of rising nationalisms.
‘If America does sharply raise H1-B visa fees, that will go directly against the US successfully countering China Shock 2.0’
Gordon Hanson discusses the impact of China's economic rise on the US. 'China Shock 1.0' affected manufacturing and marriage rates. 'China Shock 2.0' involves government-subsidized tech advancements. Hanson critiques policies hindering US innovation. He highlights the slowing college attainment for men. Energy transition's future depends on technological advancements and political factors. The US faces challenges in maintaining its competitive edge.
‘Economies are now shifting from tangible manufacturing to intangible investment — India is at the top of that growth’
Jonathan Haskel highlights the shift from tangible to intangible economies, driven by outsourcing and demand for diverse goods. Intangible assets enable rapid scaling, complementing traditional manufacturing. AI boosts intangible asset production efficiency, impacting equality with both amplifying and countervailing forces. India leads in intangible investment growth, reflecting its thriving tech sector.
‘The US and China face a ‘Thucydides Trap’ which could lead to war — India is growing dramatically faster than Beijing now’
Harvard professor Graham Allison warns of potential conflict between the US and China, referencing the 'Thucydides Trap.' While acknowledging Trump's concerns about China's growing influence and its impact on global alliances, Allison highlights China's positive contributions to renewable energy.
‘India and China are creating alternative payment systems now — that could be a powerful geoeconomic challenge to the US’
Matteo Maggiori explains geoeconomics as powerful nations leveraging trade and finance for influence, citing tools like export controls and sanctions. He highlights the financial sector and semiconductor supply chains as key arenas, noting China and India's efforts to create alternative systems to challenge US dominance. Overuse of geoeconomic power risks fragmentation and the rise of multipolar world.
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India is now the fastest-growing economy on Earth — Donald Trump will need India’s support as much as the other way around: Sir Paul Collier, Oxford Professor
Sir Paul Collier highlights the dual nature of capitalism, praising its problem-solving abilities while cautioning against its potential for inequality and surveillance. He emphasizes India's economic progress and its crucial role in global cooperation, particularly on climate change. Collier also critiques moral imperialism from wealthy nations, advocating for localized solutions to environmental issues.
‘To call India’s fast-growing economy ‘dead’ is so Trumpian —the US President is undermining faith in American statistics’
Alan Blinder, former Federal Reserve Vice Chair, critiques Trump's economic policies, highlighting the contractionary effects of tariffs and the undermining of statistical agencies. He expresses concern over the future of global trade due to the US's shift away from globalization.
Donald Trump has succeeded in imposing US tariffs globally now — but this won’t last as nations will learn how to retaliate: Kenneth Rogoff
Kenneth Rogoff discusses the dollar's dominance and potential threats. Sanctions and unsustainable US debt are key factors. Rogoff believes no single currency will replace the dollar. He also analyzes Donald Trump's tariffs, predicting slower US growth. Rogoff highlights India's chess success, surpassing China and the US, as a marker of India's rise in science and technology.
America’s changing stages of capitalism impacted the world — Donald Trump now wants to disrupt the old economic order: Jonathan Levy
Professor Jonathan Levy discusses the evolution of American capitalism. He identifies distinct ages, from commerce to chaos. Donald Trump is seen as a disruptive force, potentially dismantling the existing economic order. The US questions its global economic relationships. Wealth inequality is a key concern. Public debt is an issue, especially with investments not geared towards a better fiscal future.
The ‘stealthy wealthy’ have been rising in America — they make things and get rich slowly in contrast to Silicon Valley’s elite: Owen Zidar
Princeton's Professor Owen Zidar highlights the rise of 'stealthy wealthy' private business owners in America, contributing to growing inequality. Trump's tax cuts disproportionately benefit these owners, while assistance for the poor is reduced. Zidar suggests investing in the young for future prosperity, questioning the effectiveness and advisability of tariffs as a revenue source.
‘Donald Trump’s tariffs are helping to defray the US fiscal deficit now — but ultimately, they’ll weaken the economy’
Alan Auerbach highlights America's economic strengths in innovation and flexibility, but expresses concern over policies disrupting the economy. He points out the unbalanced distributional consequences of recent fiscal policy, leading to unsustainable national debt. Auerbach suggests addressing entitlement programs and tax system adjustments, emphasizing the need for political cooperation to tackle the challenge.