2009 Portuguese legislative election

2009 Portuguese legislative election

27 September 2009
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly 116 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	9,519,921 6.4%
Turnout	5,681,258 (59.7%) 4.6 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader José Sócrates Manuela Ferreira Leite Paulo Portas Party PS PSD CDS–PP Leader since 26 September 2004 31 May 2008 21 April 2007 Leader's seat Castelo Branco Lisbon Aveiro Last election 121 seats, 45.0% 75 seats, 28.8% 12 seats, 7.2% Seats won 97 81 21 Seat change 24 6 9 Popular vote 2,077,238 1,653,665 592,778 Percentage 36.6% 29.1% 10.4% Swing 8.4 pp 0.3 pp 3.2 pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Francisco Louçã Jerónimo de Sousa Party BE PCP Alliance CDU Leader since 24 March 1999 27 November 2004 Leader's seat Lisbon Lisbon Last election 8 seats, 6.4% 14 seats, 7.5% Seats won 16 15 Seat change 8 1 Popular vote 557,306 446,279 Percentage 9.8% 7.9% Swing 3.4 pp 0.3 pp
Prime Minister before election José Sócrates PS Prime Minister after election José Sócrates PS

The 2009 Portuguese legislative election was held on 27 September, to renew all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic. In these elections there were approximately 9.5 million Portuguese at home and abroad called to determine the 230 seats in the Assembleia da República and 18th constitutional government in Portugal after 1976.

The election took place during the regular end of the previous four-year legislative period. From 2005 to 2009, the Socialist Party (PS), led by José Sócrates, governed with an absolute majority. The opinion polls at the beginning of the official election campaign on 12 September 2009, showed a too close to call race between the Socialists and the conservative Social Democrats, but just days before the election the Socialists increased their lead over the Social Democrats. A total of 13 parties and two coalitions competed in this election. Focus of the campaign was the impact of global economic, the financial crisis and the construction of new infrastructure projects, including the high-speed rail link Lisbon-Madrid and Lisbon-Porto-Vigo, and the new Lisbon airport.

The Socialist Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister José Sócrates, won the largest number of seats, but didn't repeat the overall majority they gained in 2005. The Socialists came in first, despite losing 9 percent of the vote and 24 seats, with a clear lead over the conservative Social Democrats, with big gains for the People's Party and for the Left Bloc.

Neither of the two major parties won an absolute majority in the Assembly of the Republic, so, the future prime minister had to form a coalition, or at least rely on other parties to govern. In that case, José Sócrates was in a better position than Manuela Ferreira Leite, since the Portuguese left won by 54.23 percent of the vote and 128 seats, against 39.54 percent and 102 deputies to the right.

On 12 October, José Sócrates was invited by President Aníbal Cavaco Silva to form government. The new cabinet was announced on 22 October and sworn in on 26 October. Voter turnout was one of the lowest in Portuguese election history, as 59.7 percent of the electorate cast a ballot.

Background

In the February 2005 early elections, the Socialists, under the leadership of José Sócrates, won 45 percent of the votes and 121 MPs, the 1st time the Socialists won a majority and the 1st time a single party won a majority since Cavaco Silva's PSD victory in 1991. The PSD suffered a heavy defeat, achieving their worst results since 1983, and faced with this failure, the then PSD leader and outgoing Prime Minister, Pedro Santana Lopes, resigned from the leadership and called an election for party chair.

During the first months in his government, Sócrates raised taxes to cut the deficit and initiated a policy of strict budgetary rigor. At the same time, he faced a very harsh summer with Wildfires across the country. That same October, the Socialists suffered a heavy defeat in the 2005 local elections, winning just 108 cities, a drop of 4, against the PSD's 158 mayoral holds. The PS was also unable to retake control of Lisbon and Porto. In January 2006, a new president was elected. Aníbal Cavaco Silva, PM between 1985 and 1995, became the first center-right candidate to win a presidential election, although only just. The PS candidate, former PM and President Mário Soares polled a disappointing third place with just 14 v of the votes. In 2007, a referendum for the legalization of abortion was held. After the failure of the 1998 referendum, the Yes side prevailed winning 59 percent of the votes against the No's 41 percent, making abortion legal in Portugal.

While the deficit reduction had been successful, and with the economy growing above 2 percent of GDP, the government faced heavy opposition for its policies, particularly from teachers unions. In March 2008, more than 100,000 teachers protested in Lisbon against Sócrates and his Education minister, Maria de Lurdes Rodrigues.

José Sócrates four-year term was also marred by a series of corruption and sleaze accusations towards the Prime Minister himself, with the two main cases being the Independent affair and the Freeport affair. In the first, Sócrates was accused of obtaining his degree in engineering by irregular means from the Independente University, and this case, plus further irregularities, led to the closure of the university. Several years later, the Public Prosecution office ruled that Sócrates indeed obtained his degree illegally. In the second case, the Freeport affair, Sócrates was accused, as environment minister (1999–2002), of allegedly ignoring environmental restrictions, due to interventions from members of his own family, in order to allow the construction of a shopping mall in Alcochete by the British company Freeport. Regarding this case, the end of a primetime evening news show on TVI network, anchored by Manuela Moura Guedes, also led to accusations of pressure from Sócrates and the PS to end the evening news show as it had several reports on the Freeport affair and an unfavourable coverage towards the Prime Minister. The Freeport affair was ultimately closed due to lack of evidence.

Entering 2009, Portugal was strongly hit by the effects of the financial crisis that was shaking the global economy, and, therefore, the country entered in a recession. As a result, the government adopted stimulus measures that worsened the public finances and increased the deficit and the debt. In the European elections of June 7, 2009, the PSD stunned pundits by winning a European election for the first time since 1989, with 31.7 percent of the votes. The Socialists suffered a huge defeat, winning just 26 percent of the votes, a drop of 18 points.

Leadership changes and challenges

PSD 2005 leadership election

In the party's congress in April 2005, Luís Marques Mendes became party leader winning 56 percent of the delegates, against the 44 percent of his rival, Luís Filipe Menezes. The results were the following:

Ballot: 9 April 2005

Candidate		Votes	%
	Luís Marques Mendes	497	56.6
	Luís Filipe Menezes	381	43.4
Turnout		878
Source:

CDS–PP 2005 leadership election

CDS–PP leader Paulo Portas, resigned from the leadership following the disappointing result of the party in the 2005 elections saying that "in no civilized country in the world, the difference between Trotskyists and Christian Democrats is one percent", referring to the result of the BE. A snap leadership congress was called to elect a new leader. Two candidates were in the ballot: Telmo Correia, the preferred candidate of Paulo Portas, and José Ribeiro e Castro, more critical of Portas. Ribeiro e Castro was easily elected and the results were the following:

Ballot: 24 April 2005

Candidate		Votes	%
	José Ribeiro e Castro	492	56.0
	Telmo Correia	387	44.0
Turnout		879
Source:

CDS–PP 2007 leadership election

Main article: 2007 CDS – People's Party leadership election

In April 2007, former CDS–PP leader Paulo Portas challenged the then party leader, José Ribeiro e Castro, for the leadership and was elected for his former job by a landslide. The results were the following:

Ballot: 21 April 2007

Candidate		Votes	%
	Paulo Portas	5,642	74.6
	José Ribeiro e Castro	1,883	24.9
Blank/Invalid ballots		38	0.5
Turnout		7,563
Source:

PSD 2007 leadership election

Main article: 2007 Portuguese Social Democratic Party leadership election

In the Social Democratic Party, incumbent leader Luís Marques Mendes was being very criticized for his opposition strategy and was left weakened after the PSD disappointing result in the 2007 Lisbon mayoral by-election, where the PSD polled 3rd with less than 16 percent of the votes. Marques Mendes called a snap leadership election and was challenged by his rival in the 2005 PSD congress, Luís Filipe Menezes. Menezes easily defeated Marques Mendes. The results were the following:

Ballot: 28 September 2007

Candidate		Votes	%
	Luís Filipe Menezes	21,101	53.6
	Luís Marques Mendes	16,973	43.1
Blank/Invalid ballots		1,279	3.3
Turnout		39,353	62.42
Source:

PSD 2008 leadership election

Main article: 2008 Portuguese Social Democratic Party leadership election

The then PSD leader, Luís Filipe Menezes, elected in September 2007, resigned after just 6 months in the job. In the following leadership elections, held in May 2008, Manuela Ferreira Leite became the first woman to lead a major party in Portugal, winning 38 percent of the votes, against the 31 percent of Pedro Passos Coelho and the 30 percent of Pedro Santana Lopes. The results were the following:

Ballot: 31 May 2008

Candidate		Votes	%
	Manuela Ferreira Leite	17,278	37.9
	Pedro Passos Coelho	14,160	31.1
	Pedro Santana Lopes	13,495	29.6
	Patinha Antão	308	0.7
Blank/Invalid ballots		351	0.8
Turnout		45,592	59.13
Source:

Electoral system

Official logo of the election.

Ballot for the district of Setúbal.

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude. The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.

For these elections, and compared with the 2005 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:

District	Number of MPs	Map
Lisbon(–1)	47	19 6 39 5 3 16 9 4 10 4 10 10 47 2 3 17 3 8 6 5 2 2
Porto(+1)	39
Braga(+1)	19
Setúbal	17
Aveiro(+1)	16
Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra	10
Viseu	9
Faro	8
Madeira and Viana do Castelo	6
Azores and Vila Real	5
Castelo Branco(–1) and Guarda	4
Beja, Bragança(–1) and Évora	3
Portalegre, Europe and Outside Europe	2

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 10th legislature (2005–2009) and that also partook in the election:

Name			Ideology	Political position	Leader	2005 result		Seats at dissolution
						%	Seats
	PS	Socialist Party Partido Socialista	Social democracy Third Way	Centre-left to Centre	José Sócrates	45.0%	121 / 230	121 / 230
	PPD/PSD	Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata	Conservatism Classical liberalism	Centre-right	Manuela Ferreira Leite	28.8%	75 / 230	75 / 230
	PCP	Portuguese Communist Party Partido Comunista Português	Communism Marxism–Leninism	Far-left	Jerónimo de Sousa	7.5%	12 / 230	11 / 230
	PEV	Ecologist Party "The Greens" Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"	Eco-socialism Green politics	Left-wing	Heloísa Apolónia		2 / 230	2 / 230
	CDS-PP	CDS – People's Party Centro Democrático e Social - Partido Popular	Christian democracy Conservatism	Centre-right to right-wing	Paulo Portas	7.2%	12 / 230	11 / 230
	BE	Left Bloc Bloco de Esquerda	Democratic socialism Anti-capitalism	Left-wing	Francisco Louçã	6.4%	8 / 230	8 / 230
	Ind.	Independent Independente	Luísa Mesquita (expelled from the Portuguese Communist Party caucus); João Luís Mota (left the CDS – People's Party caucus)					2 / 230

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or alliance		Original slogan	English translation	Refs
	PS	« Avançar Portugal »	"Go forward Portugal"
	PSD	« Compromisso de verdade »	"Real commitment"
	CDU	« Soluções para uma vida melhor »	"Solutions for a better life"
	CDS–PP	« Não basta pensar. É preciso votar. »	"Thinking is not enough. You need to vote."
	BE	« Estamos prontos »	"We are ready"

Candidates' debates

2009 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee
			PS Sócrates	PSD Leite	CDU Jerónimo	CDS–PP Portas	BE Louçã	Refs
2 Sep	TVI	Constança Cunha e Sá	P	N	N	P	N
3 Sep	SIC	Clara de Sousa	N	N	P	N	P
5 Sep	RTP1	Júdite de Sousa	P	N	P	N	N
6 Sep	TVI	Constança Cunha e Sá	N	P	N	N	P
7 Sep	SIC	Clara de Sousa	N	N	P	P	N
8 Sep	RTP1	Júdite de Sousa	P	N	N	N	P
9 Sep	TVI	Constança Cunha e Sá	N	P	P	N	N
10 May	RTP1	Júdite de Sousa	N	P	N	P	N
11 Sep	RTP1	Júdite de Sousa	N	N	N	P	P
12 Sep	SIC	Clara de Sousa	P	P	N	N	N
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate
Date	Organisers	Polling firm/Link
			PS	PSD	CDU	CDS–PP	BE	Notes
12 Sep	SIC	Aximage	45.6	30.2	—	—	—	24.2% Neither/Tie

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2009 Portuguese legislative election

Voter turnout

The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day including voters from Overseas.

Turnout	Time
	12:00			16:00			19:00
	2005	2009	±	2005	2009	±	2005	2009	±
Total	21.93%	21.29%	0.64 pp	50.94%	43.30%	7.64 pp	64.26%	59.68%	4.58 pp
Sources

Results

National summary

For detailed results by constituency, see Results breakdown of the 2009 Portuguese legislative election.

Summary of the 27 September 2009 Assembly of the Republic elections results

Parties		Votes	%	±pp swing	MPs					MPs %/ votes %
					2005	2009	±	%	±
	Socialist	2,077,238	36.56	8.4	121	97	24	42.17	10.4	1.15
	Social Democratic	1,653,665	29.11	0.3	71	81	10	35.22	4.3	1.21
	People's	592,778	10.43	3.1	12	21	9	9.13	3.9	0.88
	Left Bloc	557,306	9.81	3.4	8	16	8	6.96	3.5	0.71
	Unitary Democratic Coalition	446,279	7.86	0.3	14	15	1	6.52	0.4	0.83
	Portuguese Workers' Communist	52,761	0.93	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Hope for Portugal Movement	25,949	0.46	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	New Democracy	21,876	0.38	0.3	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Merit and Society Movement	16,924	0.30	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	People's Monarchist	15,262	0.27	—	2	0	2	0.00	0.9	0.0
	Ecology and Humanism Front (MPT/PH)	12,405	0.22	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	National Renovator	11,503	0.20	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Portugal Pro-Life	8,461	0.15	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	Labour	4,974	0.09	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	Workers Party of Socialist Unity	4,632	0.08	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Earth	3,265	0.06	—	2	0	2	0.00	0.9	0.0
Total valid		5,505,278	96.91	0.2	230	230	0	100.00	0.0	—
Blank ballots		99,086	1.74	0.1
Invalid ballots		76,894	1.35	0.2
Total		5,681,258	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		9,519,921	59.68	4.6
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Vote share PS   36.56% PSD   29.11% CDS-PP   10.43% BE   9.81% CDU   7.86% PCTP/MRPP   0.93% Others   2.21% Blank/Invalid   3.09%

Parliamentary seats PS   42.17% PSD   35.22% CDS-PP   9.13% BE   6.96% CDU   6.52%

Distribution by constituency

Results of the 2009 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency

Constituency	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	Total S
	PS		PSD		CDS–PP		BE		CDU
Azores	39.7	3	35.7	2	10.3	-	7.3	-	2.2	-	5
Aveiro	33.8	6	34.6	7	13.0	2	9.0	1	3.8	-	16
Beja	34.9	2	14.6	-	5.7	-	10.0	-	29.1	1	3
Braga	41.7	9	30.8	6	9.7	2	7.8	1	4.6	1	19
Bragança	33.0	1	40.6	2	12.6	-	6.2	-	2.4	-	3
Castelo Branco	41.0	2	29.8	2	8.4	-	9.1	-	5.1	-	4
Coimbra	38.0	4	30.6	4	8.8	1	10.8	1	5.7	-	10
Évora	35.0	1	19.0	1	6.4	-	11.1	-	22.3	1	3
Faro	31.9	3	26.2	3	10.7	1	15.3	1	7.8	-	8
Guarda	36.0	2	35.6	2	11.2	-	7.6	-	3.3	-	4
Leiria	30.1	4	34.9	4	12.6	1	9.5	1	5.1	-	10
Lisbon	36.4	19	25.1	13	11.0	5	10.8	5	9.9	5	47
Madeira	19.4	1	48.1	4	11.1	1	6.2	-	4.2	-	6
Portalegre	38.3	1	23.8	1	8.0	-	10.8	-	12.9	-	2
Porto	41.8	18	29.2	12	9.3	4	9.2	3	5.7	2	39
Santarém	33.7	4	27.0	3	11.2	1	11.8	1	9.2	1	10
Setúbal	34.0	7	16.4	3	9.1	1	14.0	2	20.1	4	17
Viana do Castelo	36.3	3	31.3	2	13.6	1	8.6	-	4.2	-	6
Vila Real	36.1	2	41.1	3	10.1	-	5.5	-	2.9	-	5
Viseu	34.7	4	37.5	4	13.4	1	6.5	-	2.9	-	9
Europe	43.3	1	23.8	1	4.7	-	4.7	-	4.4	-	2
Outside Europe	22.0	-	54.5	2	3.2	-	2.0	-	1.0	-	2
Total	36.6	97	29.1	81	10.4	21	9.8	16	7.9	15	230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

• 
  Strongest party by district.
• 
  Most voted political force by municipality.
• 
  First, second and third most voted political force by district.
• 
  Most voted political force by district or autonomous region.

Aftermath

Fall of the government

See also: 2010–2014 Portuguese financial crisis

By 2010, Portugal was facing a big economic crisis and the Government was forced to implement austerity measures. Plus, Sócrates name was also involved in a new corruption investigation, Face Oculta, although no accusation was made. Despite the government's announcement of more fiscal restraint policies in order to control public spending, the economy entered in a recession and protests against the government policies began. On 12 March 2011, protests against the Government's austerity measures drew up to 280,000 people just in the streets of Lisbon and Porto alone. By the same month of March, the PS Government had presented three Stability and Growth Programs (PECs) and all failed in controlling spending and convincing markets. A forth one, PEC IV, was put for a vote in Parliament on 23 March 2011 but it was rejected by all Opposition parties and only supported by the Socialists.

2011 PEC IV José Sócrates (PS)
Ballot →		23 March 2011
Required majority →		Simple N
	Yes • PS (97)	97 / 230
	No • PSD (80) • CDS–PP (21) • BE (16) • PCP (13) • PEV (2)	132 / 230
	Abstentions	0 / 230
	Absentees • PSD (1)	1 / 230
Sources

Before the vote, Prime Minister José Sócrates threatened to resign if the PEC failed to pass. After the result of the vote was announced, Sócrates tendered his resignation to President Aníbal Cavaco Silva. A snap legislative election was then called for 5 June 2011.

External links

• Preliminary results of the 2009 election
• Portuguese Electoral Commission

See also

• Politics of Portugal
• List of political parties in Portugal
• Elections in Portugal