MMSS-04 Rev.
1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 7
Severe Tropical Storm NIKA (TORAJI)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 10 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 PM today.
“NIKA” CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AS IT NEARS TYPHOON STRENGTH.
Location of Center (4:00 PM)
The center of Severe Tropical Storm NIKA was estimated
based on all available data including Daet Weather Radar at
380 km East of Infanta, Quezon (15.2°N, 125.2°E)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center,
gustiness of up to 135 km/h, and central pressure of 980 hPa
Present Movement
Westward at 20 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 340 km
from the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW dir. and
Location Cat. speed (km/h)
(°N) (°E) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
2:00 AM 15.8 123.2 170 km East of Baler, Aurora 120 TY WNW 20
11 November 2024
24-Hour Forecast
2:00 PM 17.0 121.1 In the vicinity of Banaue, Ifugao 120 TY WNW 20
11 November 2024
36-Hour Forecast
2:00 AM 18.1 118.9 165 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur 110 STS WNW 20
12 November 2024
48-Hour Forecast
325 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
2:00 PM 18.7 117.5 100 STS WNW 15
(OUTSIDE PAR)
12 November 2024
60-Hour Forecast
565 km West of Calayan, Cagayan
2:00 AM 19.1 116.1 100 STS WNW 15
(OUTSIDE PAR)
13 November 2024
72-Hour Forecast
710 km West of Calayan, Cagayan
2:00 PM 19.5 114.7 100 STS WNW 15
(OUTSIDE PAR)
13 November 2024
96-Hour Forecast
935 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon
2:00 PM 20.0 112.6 95 STS WNW 10
(OUTSIDE PAR)
14 November 2024
120-Hour Forecast
1,055 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon
2:00 PM 19.6 111.4 95 STS WSW Slowly
(OUTSIDE PAR)
15 November 2024
Page 1 of 4
Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: MAGGE
“tracking the sky…helping the country.”
Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 7
Severe Tropical Storm NIKA (TORAJI)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 10 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 PM today.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao
The northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan,
Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler), Isabela, Quirino, the southern portion
of mainland Cagayan (Solana, Iguig, Peñablanca, Tuguegarao City, Enrile,
Baggao, Alcala, Amulung, Santo Niño, Rizal, Piat, Tuao, Gattaran, Lasam),
Nueva Vizcaya, the southern portion of Apayao (Kabugao, Conner,
Flora, Pudtol), Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the
2 northern portion of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan, Lupao, San
Jose City), the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Narvacan, Nagbukel,
- -
Wind threat: Cervantes, Quirino, San Emilio, Santa Maria, Burgos, San Esteban, Santiago,
Gale-force Lidlidda, Banayoyo, City of Candon, Galimuyod, Salcedo, Gregorio del Pilar,
winds Sigay, Santa Lucia, Santa Cruz, Suyo, Alilem, Tagudin, Sugpon) , La Union,
and the northeastern portion of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, Natividad,
San Quintin, Sison, San Manuel, Umingan, Tayug)
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
The rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the rest of
Apayao, Ilocos Norte, the rest of Ilocos Sur, the rest of Pangasinan,
the rest of Aurora, Tarlac, the northern and central portions of
Zambales (Santa Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc, Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan,
San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso), the rest of Nueva Ecija,
Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, the eastern portion of
Laguna (Santa Maria, Mabitac, Pakil, Pangil, Famy, Siniloan, Paete, Kalayaan,
Cavinti, Lumban, Luisiana, Santa Cruz, Magdalena, Pagsanjan, Majayjay, Liliw,
1 Nagcarlan, Pila, Victoria), the eastern portion of Quezon (Calauag,
Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Pitogo, San Andres, Buenavista, San Francisco,
- -
Wind threat:
Strong Pagbilao, Infanta, Lopez, Catanauan, Mulanay, Unisan, General Luna, Plaridel,
winds Quezon, Alabat, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Macalelon, Mauban, Perez,
Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, San Narciso, General Nakar, Lucban, City
of Tayabas, Lucena City) including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte,
Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and the northeastern portion of
Albay (Malinao, Tiwi, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Rapu-Rapu)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Page 2 of 4
Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: MAGGE
“tracking the sky…helping the country.”
Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 7
Severe Tropical Storm NIKA (TORAJI)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 10 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 PM today.
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 7 issued at 5:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone “NIKA”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be
slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered
from the prevailing wind direction.
Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of NIKA is Wind Signal No. 4.
Furthermore, the northeasterly wind flow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in
coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
Today (10 November): Batanes
Tomorrow (11 November): Batanes, Batangas, Marinduque, Romblon, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes
Tuesday (12 November): Batanes and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
Coastal Inundation
There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge may occur in the next 48 hours in the low-lying or exposed coastal localities
of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon
including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. For more information, refer to Storm Surge
Warning No. 4 issued at 2:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the eastern seaboard of Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 2 issued at
5:00 PM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 7.0 m: The seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora
Up to 5.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora, the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the seaboard of
Camarines Norte
Up to 4.5 m: The eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; the northern seaboards of Camarines Sur and Catanduanes;
the western seaboard of Ilocos Norte; the seaboard of Ilocos Sur
Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek
shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Page 3 of 4
Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: MAGGE
“tracking the sky…helping the country.”
Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 7
Severe Tropical Storm NIKA (TORAJI)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 10 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 PM today.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 4.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Catanduanes, mainland Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte; the seaboard of Babuyan
Islands
Up to 3.5 m: The seaboard of Batanes; the remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region
Up to 3.0 m: The eastern seaboards of mainland Quezon, Catanduanes, Albay, and Sorsogon; the northern seaboard of
Northern Samar; the remaining seaboard of Polillo Islands.
Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these
conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 2.5 m: The eastern seaboards of Northern Samar.
Up to 2.0 m: The eastern seaboards of Eastern Samar and Dinagat Islands; the seaboard of Kalayaan Islands.
Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while
venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
NIKA is forecast to move generally west northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the track forecast, it may make
landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora tomorrow (11 November) morning or early afternoon. Regardless of the position
of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in
areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone. The tropical cyclone will then traverse the landmass of
mainland Northern Luzon and emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow evening. Afterwards, NIKA will continue moving
west northwestward over the West Philippine Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday (12 November)
afternoon.
NIKA is forecast to reach typhoon category today and may reach its peak intensity of around 130 km/h prior to landfall. A
short period of weakening is expected as NIKA traverses the landmass of Luzon due to land interaction. Re-intensification
may occur over the West Philippine Sea.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all
necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these
hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings,
thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Page 4 of 4
Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: MAGGE
“tracking the sky…helping the country.”
Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
