MMSS-04 Rev.
1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 1
Tropical Depression NIKA
Issued at 11:00 AM, 09 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LUZON HAS DEVELOPED INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION “NIKA”
Location of Center (10:00 AM)
The center of Tropical Depression NIKA was estimated based
on all available data at 1,145 km East of Southeastern
Luzon (14.5°N, 132.3°E)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center,
gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central pressure of 1004 hPa
Present Movement
Westward at 30 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong winds extend outwards up to 250 km from the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW dir. and
Location Cat. speed (km/h)
(°N) (°E) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 14.5 130.5 950 km East of Southeastern Luzon 55 TD W 25
09 November 2024
24-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 14.7 127.7 650 km East of Infanta, Quezon 75 TS W 25
10 November 2024
36-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 15.2 125.3 395 km East of Infanta, Quezon 85 TS WNW 20
10 November 2024
48-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 15.7 123.4 190 km East of Baler, Aurora 100 STS WNW 20
11 November 2024
60-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 16.8 120.9 In the vicinity of Hungduan, Ifugao 95 STS WNW 25
11 November 2024
72-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 17.0 118.8 170 km West of Bacnotan, La Union 100 STS W 20
12 November 2024
96-Hour Forecast
545 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur
8:00 AM 17.8 115.3 100 STS WNW 15
(OUTSIDE PAR)
13 November 2024
120-Hour Forecast
685 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur
8:00 AM 18.5 114.0 110 STS WNW Slowly
(OUTSIDE PAR)
14 November 2024
Page 1 of 3
Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: RPG
“tracking the sky…helping the country.”
Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 1
Tropical Depression NIKA
Issued at 11:00 AM, 09 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao
1 Catanduanes - -
Wind threat:
Strong Warning lead time: 36 hours
winds Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 1 issued at 11:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone
“NIKA”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be
slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered
from the prevailing wind direction.
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of NIKA is Wind Signal No. 3.
Furthermore, the northeasterly wind flow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in
coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
Tomorrow (10 November): Batanes, northern Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Ilocos Norte
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 3.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the seaboard of Kalayaan Islands
Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under
these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of Isabela, northern Aurora and Camarines Norte; the northern and eastern seaboards of
Polillo Islands and Northern Samar; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; the eastern seaboards of Albay and
Sorsogon.
Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Cagayan Valley, the seaboard of Ilocos Region; the western seaboards of
Zambales, Bataan, Lubang Islands, Occidental Mindoro, Calamian Islands, and mainland Palawan; the eastern
seaboards of Camarines Sur, Eastern Samar, and Dinagat Islands.
Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while
venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
Page 2 of 3
Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: RPG
“tracking the sky…helping the country.”
Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 1
Tropical Depression NIKA
Issued at 11:00 AM, 09 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
NIKA is forecast to move generally west northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the track forecast, it may make
landfall over Isabela or Aurora on Monday (11 November). Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be
emphasized that hazards may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone.
This tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually intensify and may reach severe tropical storm category by Monday (11
November) morning prior to landfall. Weakening is expected during its passage due to interaction with the terrain of
mainland Luzon, but NIKA will remain as a severe tropical storm.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all
necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these
hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings,
thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Page 3 of 3
Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: RPG
“tracking the sky…helping the country.”
Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
