United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

December 2024
Fresh Apples, Grapes, and Pears:
World Markets and Trade
U.S. Fresh Pear Exports Fall on Historically Low Harvest

U.S. fresh pear exports are forecast to fall to the lowest level since the 1980s in marketing
year 2024/25 (July 2024 – June 2025) as production is expected to fall more than 20
percent. U.S. pear production is forecast at 470,000 metric tons (tons) the lowest volume
since 1967/68, as all three producing states experienced year-over-year declines. The
United States is expected to fall to the world’s sixth-largest pear producer in 2024/25 after
being ranked fourth the previous year and third for most of the preceding decade.
Constrained by this historically low harvest, U.S. fresh pear exports are forecast at 85,000
tons, less than half the volume exported a decade ago, and at nearly the same level as
fresh pear imports.

Output in Washington, normally the top pear-producing state, is projected to drop more
than 30 percent and be a smaller harvest than Oregon. A freeze in January damaged pear
trees and continued cold weather during the spring blossom further limited volumes. This
adverse weather compounds a decade-long trend of falling acreage in Washington. Oregon
production is forecast down 15 percent and California down 17 percent, also due to
damaging weather.

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

For email subscription, click here to register:
https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new
 Due to the lack of exportable supplies, U.S. fresh pear exports are forecast down 25,000
tons to 85,000, the lowest level since 1988/89. In the first 3 months of the marketing year,
exports fell by more than 40 percent compared to the same period in 2023/24. Typically, 90
percent of U.S. pear exports are destined for Canada and Mexico as pears are delicate and
difficult to transport long distances. The United States is the top exporter to these markets
with approximately 90 percent market share in Mexico and 50 percent in Canada. While
the United States may lose some market share in 2024/25, it is unclear if other suppliers
will be able to fill the gap.

U.S. imports are projected to rise only slightly to 80,000 tons despite domestic supplies
dropping sharply as other countries are not forecast to significantly increase exports.
While high U.S. prices could attract Southern Hemisphere supplies that are normally
directed to other markets (including the European Union and Russia), U.S. import volumes
have shown considerable stability in the past decade despite similar supply shocks. While
China is forecast to have increased exportable supplies, shipments to the United States
are unlikely to significantly increase because supplies are dominated by Asian varieties of
pears that are not readily substituted for U.S. pear varieties that saw the biggest drop in
production such as Bosc and Green Anjou. Last year, nearly 30 percent of domestic
supplies were allocated to processing. Due to high fresh market prices and significant
canned pear inventory, more pears will be sold on the fresh market this year and imports
will not be increased to supply processing. With limited growth in imports, domestic pear
consumption is forecast at the lowest level in at least 4 decades, accelerating the long-
term trend of falling pear consumption including processing volumes.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 December 2024

Global Market Analysis
 FRESH APPLES

World apple production for 2024/25 is forecast to fall nearly 350,000 tons to 84.0 million
as losses in the European Union, United States, Turkey, and Russia more than offset an
increase in China production. Exports are projected down less than 100,000 tons to 6.1
million on lower shipments from the United States and Iran more than offsetting increased
exports from China.

China production is forecast up 1.5 million tons to 48.0 million on normal growing
conditions. Higher-yielding varieties continue to replace older varieties, offsetting the
decline in area planted. Exports are projected up nearly 100,000 tons to 1.0 million on
higher shipments to Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand driven by ample exportable
supply and low domestic prices. Imports are projected up nearly 20,000 tons to 105,000 on
recovering New Zealand production.

EU production is projected down 1.1 million tons to 11.0 million on poor pollination and
damaging spring frosts in top-producer Poland. Exports are forecast unchanged at 950,000
tons despite lower production as shipments to Egypt rebound from last year’s 6-year low.
Imports are expected to rise nearly 40 percent to 350,000 tons to compensate for lower
production.

U.S. production is projected down nearly 150,000 tons to 4.9 million after last year’s
bumper crop but remains above the 10-year average. USDA’s National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS) surveyed industry and published a U.S. forecast for apple
production in the August 2024 Crop Production report. Exports are forecast down nearly 10
percent to 820,000 tons on lower production. Imports are forecast up slightly to 90,000
tons, the second lowest level in 40 years, as the volume of apples in cold storage remains
elevated compared to normal levels.

Turkey production is forecast down 600,000 tons to 4.2 million due to insufficient winter
chill hours, dry weather, and a shortage of irrigation water. This is the second year of
declining production after Turkey reached a record level in 2022/23. Exports are forecast
up slightly to 330,000 tons as export-oriented growers were less impacted by the adverse
weather conditions.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 December 2024

Global Market Analysis
 India production is projected up
more than 100,000 tons to 2.6 million
as a short winter and limited rainfall
during the delicate flowering and
fruit-setting stages led to a strong
harvest. Imports are forecast up 10
percent to 600,000 tons as
shipments continue to grow from last
year’s record, including a strong start
from the United States. Driven by
production growth and significant
imports, domestic consumption is
forecast at 3.0 million tons, a record
level for the third year in a row.

South Africa production is forecast mostly unchanged at 1.3 million tons as growers
continue to invest in alternative energy sources to supplement the unreliable electric grid
and hail nets instead of expanding acreage. Exports are anticipated to rise 30,000 tons to
710,000 on increased shipments to India in addition to its traditional African and European
markets.

Chile production is forecast mostly unchanged at 920,000 tons as high yields from
sufficient winter rainfall and chill hours offset decreased acreage. In line with production,
exports are forecast up only slightly to 535,000 tons. Last year, Brazil surpassed Colombia
as the top market for Chile apple exports for the first time.

New Zealand production is forecast to rise 35,000 tons to 563,000, the highest level in 5
years, as orchards fully recover from Cyclone Gabrielle damage in February 2023 and
greater seasonal labor availability is anticipated to assist with the harvest. Exports are
projected up 12 percent to 380,000 tons.

FRESH TABLE GRAPES

World table grape production for 2024/25 is forecast up nearly 1.0 million tons to 28.9
million as higher volumes in China, India, and the United States more than offset losses in
the European Union. Exports are projected up nearly 400,000 tons to 3.9 million on greater
shipments from Peru and China.

China production is forecast up 700,000 tons to 14.2 million as new varieties and favorable
weather conditions lead to higher yields. Exports are forecast up 100,000 tons to 600,000
as increased exportable supplies combine with improved quality and lower prices. Imports
are forecast up slightly to 125,000 tons on greater Southern Hemisphere supplies.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 December 2024

Global Market Analysis
 India production is forecast to rise more than 100,000 tons to 3.1 million on adequate soil
moisture from the monsoon and improved farming techniques. Exports are expected to
rise more than 20,000 tons to 335,000 as depreciation of the Indian rupee facilitates the
movement of the higher production volumes to neighboring countries and the European
Union.

Turkey production is projected up nearly 100,000 tons to 2.0 million but remains below the
5-year average as downy mildew disease continues to negatively impact production.
Exports are forecast up slightly to 150,000 tons on the partial recovery in production.

EU production is forecast down more than 200,000 tons to 1.1 million, the lowest level in at
least 2 decades. In Italy, the crop was damaged by temperature swings and heavy rain
while Greece experienced drought during the summer harvest. Domestic consumption is
forecast 10 percent lower at 1.6 million tons despite an expected increase in imports to
630,000 tons. Exports are forecast down slightly to 115,000 tons, the lowest level since
2015/16, on lower exportable supplies.

U.S. production is projected up nearly 200,000 tons to 845,000 as California makes a full
recovery from last year’s damage from Hurricane Hilary. NASS surveyed industry and
published a U.S. forecast for table grapes production in the August 2024 Crop Production
report. Higher supplies are expected to push exports up 35 percent to 245,000 tons.
Imports are forecast down more than 30,000 tons to 760,000 on greater domestic
production, but the United States is expected to remain the top table grape importer. In
July 2024, USDA approved three regions in Chile to export table grapes to the United States
via a systems approach instead of methyl bromide fumigation which should allow higher
quality grapes to reach the U.S. market.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 December 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Peru production is forecast up 15,000 tons to 790,000 on recovered production in northern
Peru after El Niño conditions limited the industry’s growth last year. Higher supplies are
expected to drive exports up nearly 20 percent to 620,000 tons, nearly matching the record
level seen in 2022/23.

Chile production is forecast up 45,000 tons to 728,000 as higher yields from favorable
weather more than offset declining area planted. Exports are expected to rise by the same
volume to reach 570,000 tons.

South Africa production is projected mostly unchanged at 365,000 tons as declining area
planted is offset by more efficient varieties coming into production. In line with production,
exports are expected to remain steady at 335,000 tons as producers continue to face
logistical issues at the Port of Cape Town.

Australia production is forecast up 35,000 tons to 230,000, the second largest harvest on
record due to excellent bud burst and favorable weather conditions. Exports are
anticipated to rise 26 percent to 135,000 tons on higher exportable supplies, but lower
demand from China keeps the level well below the peak achieved in 2019/20.

FRESH PEARS

World pear production for 2024/25 is forecast up nearly 400,000 tons to 25.9 million as
gains in China more than offset weather-related losses in the United States. Exports are
anticipated to rise more than 60,000 tons to 1.9 million on improved shipments from China
and Turkey.

China production is forecast up 350,000 tons to 20.2 million as a bumper crop in top-
producer Hebei more than offsets damage from high temperatures in other provinces. This
is the sixth consecutive year of production growth despite declining acreage due to
negative returns, aging farmers, and government policies aimed at converting orchards to
grain production. Exports are projected up nearly 10 percent to 660,000 tons due to the
record high domestic production. Imports are forecast up slightly to 15,000 tons.

EU production is expected to rise approximately 60,000 tons to 1.9 million tons as a

recovery in Italy more than offsets weather and disease related declines in Belgium, the
Netherlands, and Spain. However, production remains below the 5-year average. Exports
are forecast down slightly to 290,000 tons on low volumes of Dutch and Belgian
Conference pears that are an important segment of the export market. Imports are
projected down 12 percent to 160,000 tons as recovering domestic production, especially
in Italy, reduces demand for imported pears.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 December 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Argentina production is forecast mostly unchanged at 655,000 tons as farmers are unable
to expand acreage and the industry continues to consolidate due to rising production
costs. Exports are forecast down slightly to 330,000 tons but remain above the 5-year
average.

Turkey production is
forecast up 65,000 tons to
620,000 as good weather
conditions lead to record
production. Exports are
projected up 20,000 tons to
80,000 on recovering
domestic production.
However, the industry
remains focused on the
domestic market with only
13 percent of production
expected to be exported.

South Africa production is forecast up slightly to 540,000 tons as a cold winter and
sufficient water for irrigation are likely to improve yields. Exports are projected up 10,000
tons to 280,000 on increased exportable supplies.

U.S. production is forecast down more than 100,000 tons to 470,000 as poor growing
conditions in all three producing states lead to the smallest harvest in nearly 60 years.
NASS surveyed industry and published a U.S. forecast for pear production in the August
2024 Crop Production report. As a result of the historically low production volumes,
domestic consumption and exports are anticipated to fall to 465,000 and 85,000 tons,
respectively. Imports are projected up slightly to 80,000 tons.

Chile production is projected to rise slightly to 207,000 tons as favorable weather

conditions improve yields, more than offsetting lower area planted and stalling the
decade-long trend of falling production. Exports are forecast up 5 percent to 110,000 tons
on the moderate increase in exportable supplies.

Future Releases and Contact Information

For additional information, please contact Stephanie Galbraith at (771) 221-5954 or
stephanie.galbraith@usda.gov

The next release of this circular is scheduled for December 17, 2025. Note: Starting in
2025, USDA/FAS will no longer publish a semi-annual version of this circular. Publication
of the annual circular will continue, and estimates will remain available in PSD Online. To
receive the circular via email, go to

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 December 2024

Global Market Analysis
 https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new. Please visit
https://fas.usda.gov/data/search?recent_report_type=10259&reports%5B0%5D=report_c
ommodities%3A13288&reports%5B1%5D=report_type%3A10259 to view archived reports.

The Fresh Apples, Grapes, and Pears: World Markets and Trade circular is based on
reports from FAS Overseas Posts and on available secondary information. The individual
country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at:
https://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx.

PSD Online
The entire USDA PSD database is available online at: https://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline

Additional Resources
For additional data and analysis, please refer to the USDA-FAS website:
https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/commodities/fresh-fruit

NOTES TO USERS:
European Union definition: includes 27 countries in the customs union (Austria,
Belgium/Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia,
Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg,
Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden).

HS Codes:
The following harmonized codes are used for compiling trade data:
• 080610 – table grapes
• 080810 – apples
• 080830 – pears

Marketing Years:
• Apples - The United States and Mexico are on an August-July marketing year. All
other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year. Southern
Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the
split year.

• Table Grapes - The United States and Mexico are on a May-April marketing year. All
other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a June-May marketing year. Southern
Hemisphere producer countries of Argentina, Australia, Chile, Peru, and South
Africa are on an October-September marketing year; Brazil remains on a calendar
year basis indicated as the second year of the split year.

• Pears - Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year. Southern

Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the
split year.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 December 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Apples, Fresh: Production, Supply and Distribution in Selected Countries
(1,000 Metric Tons)

Dec
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

Production none
China 42,425 44,066 45,973 44,500 46,500 48,000
European Union 11,480 11,935 12,266 12,728 12,090 11,009
United States 4,852 4,511 4,438 4,394 5,030 4,888
Turkey 3,620 4,300 4,493 4,968 4,750 4,150
India 2,370 2,300 2,300 2,400 2,410 2,550
Iran 2,241 2,768 1,990 1,990 1,990 1,990
Russia 1,779 1,540 1,641 1,742 1,844 1,600
South Africa 991 1,164 1,250 1,200 1,300 1,320
Ukraine 1,115 1,279 1,129 1,129 1,129 1,129
Brazil 983 1,297 1,047 1,047 1,047 1,047
Other 6,811 6,540 6,107 6,210 6,231 6,294
Total 78,666 81,700 82,634 82,307 84,321 83,976
Domestic Consumption none
China 41,487 43,033 45,051 43,821 45,677 47,105
European Union 10,659 11,175 11,448 11,931 11,396 10,409
United States 4,098 3,844 3,822 3,883 4,210 4,158
Turkey 3,412 4,013 4,096 4,572 4,432 3,821
India 2,250 2,400 2,577 2,550 2,796 2,979
Russia 2,455 2,259 2,216 2,094 2,150 1,910
Iran 1,423 1,812 1,083 1,444 1,081 1,305
Brazil 1,028 1,250 1,142 1,165 1,277 1,187
Mexico 1,017 973 899 1,042 1,161 1,117
Ukraine 1,114 1,273 1,081 1,098 1,085 1,086
Other 9,189 9,097 8,994 8,497 8,609 8,495
Total 78,133 81,131 82,410 82,096 83,874 83,570
Imports none
India 194 377 448 360 544 600
Iraq 405 406 455 341 452 370
European Union 378 325 331 238 256 350
Russia 763 796 587 362 316 320
United Kingdom 320 330 328 278 328 310
Vietnam 233 278 299 302 315 305
Mexico 257 260 266 232 345 300
Saudi Arabia 195 174 179 199 214 220
United Arab Emirates 171 175 211 190 219 205
Thailand 172 194 190 176 164 180
Other 3,338 3,061 3,206 2,718 2,759 2,713
Total 6,425 6,375 6,502 5,397 5,913 5,873
Exports none
China 1,042 1,102 997 774 911 1,000
European Union 1,199 1,084 1,149 1,035 950 950
United States 861 775 721 611 898 820
South Africa 509 589 625 607 680 710
Iran 818 956 907 546 908 685
Chile 660 644 603 469 530 535
New Zealand 400 356 341 309 340 380
Turkey 209 288 398 396 319 330
Serbia 206 185 165 110 157 160
Moldova 217 150 253 123 127 130
Other 476 506 428 470 403 433
Total 6,596 6,634 6,587 5,450 6,224 6,133

Note: The United States and Mexico are on an August-July marketing year. All other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June
marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 December 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Grapes, Fresh Table: Production, Supply and Distribution in Selected Countries
(1,000 Metric Tons)

Dec
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

Production none
China 10,800 11,450 11,980 12,750 13,500 14,200
India 2,280 2,300 2,900 2,850 2,950 3,068
Turkey 2,050 2,220 1,857 2,220 1,919 1,995
Uzbekistan 1,607 1,695 1,761 1,761 1,761 1,761
Egypt 1,385 1,170 1,470 1,560 1,573 1,593
Brazil 1,436 1,748 1,451 1,451 1,451 1,451
European Union 1,548 1,374 1,422 1,543 1,311 1,090
United States 905 871 826 811 655 845
Peru 645 685 713 766 775 790
Chile 785 665 793 656 683 728
Other 1,302 1,293 1,294 1,305 1,327 1,347
Total 24,743 25,471 26,467 27,673 27,904 28,867
Fresh Dom. Consumption none
China 10,677 11,215 11,810 12,537 13,120 13,725
India 1,803 1,830 2,285 2,254 2,326 2,413
Turkey 1,845 2,006 1,595 1,997 1,778 1,846
Uzbekistan 1,487 1,566 1,537 1,523 1,642 1,611
European Union 1,872 1,766 1,854 1,945 1,784 1,605
Egypt 1,248 1,027 1,328 1,392 1,400 1,410
Brazil 1,394 1,677 1,406 1,385 1,409 1,398
United States 1,252 1,227 1,281 1,310 1,265 1,360
Russia 308 369 405 549 330 429
Mexico 273 272 266 304 260 296
Other 2,159 2,212 2,202 2,083 2,150 2,235
Total 24,318 25,166 25,969 27,279 27,464 28,328
Imports none
United States 672 670 713 746 793 760
European Union 501 572 604 574 599 630
Russia 288 351 380 518 302 400
United Kingdom 275 269 271 258 267 265
Canada 189 191 184 178 176 190
Thailand 131 140 103 136 134 160
Vietnam 113 147 99 140 136 160
Indonesia 94 101 100 105 117 150
Mexico 91 98 103 130 111 130
Bangladesh 60 106 130 97 104 125
Other 1,006 931 905 795 682 722
Total 3,418 3,577 3,592 3,676 3,422 3,692
Exports none
Peru 400 468 540 622 529 620
China 362 428 351 389 499 600
Chile 605 526 608 496 529 570
India 185 267 275 283 313 335
South Africa 284 322 336 283 333 335
United States 325 314 258 247 182 245
Mexico 224 207 196 209 238 220
Egypt 150 155 150 170 175 185
Turkey 205 215 264 227 142 150
Uzbekistan 120 129 224 238 119 150
Other 680 639 540 581 475 482
Total 3,540 3,669 3,741 3,745 3,532 3,892

Note: The United States and Mexico are on a May-April marketing year. All other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a June-May
marketing year. Southern Hemisphere producer countries of Argentina, Australia, Chile, Peru, and South Africa are on an
October-September marketing year, and Brazil is on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year. Some countries may
include raisin-type and/or table-type grapes.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 10 December 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Pears, Fresh: Production, Supply and Distribution in Selected Countries
(1,000 Metric Tons)

Dec
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

Production none
China 17,314 17,815 18,876 19,260 19,850 20,200
European Union 2,059 2,373 1,847 2,092 1,807 1,868
Argentina 640 615 557 654 658 655
Turkey 530 550 530 571 555 620
South Africa 438 461 540 508 530 540
United States 653 610 601 587 602 470
India 310 308 310 300 313 313
Russia 290 247 240 235 230 230
Japan 198 206 223 223 223 223
Chile 222 233 223 212 202 207
Other 586 483 563 575 508 526
Total 23,241 23,902 24,509 25,217 25,478 25,852
Domestic Consumption none
China 16,707 17,345 18,404 18,867 19,257 19,555
European Union 1,823 2,172 1,684 1,848 1,693 1,738
Turkey 479 477 436 482 495 540
United States 594 577 559 558 569 465
Russia 436 446 422 455 425 430
India 327 330 338 328 342 348
Argentina 300 301 283 339 323 325
South Africa 212 214 253 267 260 260
Japan 197 205 222 222 222 222
Indonesia 236 196 215 151 200 215
Other 1,754 1,527 1,628 1,649 1,610 1,662
Total 23,067 23,789 24,445 25,164 25,394 25,760
Imports none
Indonesia 236 196 215 151 200 215
Russia 194 241 183 220 195 200
Brazil 138 121 133 159 165 160
European Union 172 175 186 140 182 160
Vietnam 133 97 101 96 131 140
United Kingdom 100 105 103 112 100 105
Hong Kong 76 81 77 80 90 85
Belarus 119 112 78 108 75 80
Mexico 84 73 72 80 82 80
United States 72 75 69 71 76 80
Other 509 473 503 481 477 521
Total 1,832 1,749 1,719 1,696 1,772 1,826
Exports none
China 619 480 482 410 605 660
Argentina 340 315 275 315 335 330
European Union 407 377 349 384 297 290
South Africa 227 247 287 241 270 280
Chile 114 127 116 105 105 110
United States 130 109 110 100 110 85
Turkey 51 73 94 89 60 80
Belarus 16 54 27 56 38 40
Korea, South 31 19 24 30 19 25
Hong Kong 7 6 4 9 6 7
Other 16 15 15 12 11 12
Total 1,959 1,821 1,784 1,749 1,856 1,919

Note: Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated
as the second year of the split year.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 11 December 2024

Global Market Analysis