HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY
24 May, 2016
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
VIEW POINT
MAJOR CURRENCY
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR
67.495
95.324
1.121
1.450
109.390
67.531
Prev.
Close
67.446
95.231
1.122
1.448
109.240
67.577
Chg.
% Chg.
0.049
0.093
-0.001
0.001
0.150
-0.046
0.07%
0.10%
-0.07%
0.08%
0.14%
-0.07%
GLOBAL INDICES
Prev.
Close
Close
SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX
7730.0
7731.1
25230.4
19766.1
16543.4
2821.1
2048.0
17492.9
4765.8
6136.4
4325.1
9842.3
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Segment
7737.0
7749.7
25301.9
19809.0
16654.6
2843.6
2052.3
17500.9
4769.6
6156.3
4353.9
9916.0
Chg.
% Chg.
-7
-19
-72
-43
-111
-23
-4
-8
-4
-20
-29
-74
-0.09%
-0.24%
-0.28%
-0.22%
-0.67%
-0.79%
-0.21%
-0.05%
-0.08%
-0.32%
-0.66%
-0.74%
(Provisional Rs. In Cr)
23-May-16
20-May-16
May Month
EQUITY
-692.28
319.86
526.33
DEBT
-565.63
-915.47
-5865.18
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
RUPEE ERASES EARLY GAINS ON FII OUTFLOWS
Indian rupee gave away its early gains and ended weaker against dollar on
Monday for the eighth consecutive session, after foreign funds continued to
liquidate their investment in debt market. Besides, fall in equity market for
the fourth day consecutive session, demand for dollar from banks and
importers also dampened the rupee sentiment.
The home currency closed at 67.50 - a level last seen on 2 March, down
0.07% from its previous close of 67.45. The rupee opened at 67.30 per US
dollar and touched a high and a low of 67.26 and 67.50, respectively. So far
this year, the rupee has weakened 2%.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold nearly $860 million in debt
over the last nine trading sessions and have been sellers on all but one
trading session over this period. So far this year, FIIs have remained net
sellers of Indian debt and have offloaded $903.14 million in domestic bonds.
Dollar Index Hovering Near Two Months High
The dollar is trading nearly flat against its major European rivals.
Meanwhile, the U.S. currency is losing ground against the Japanese Yen amid
risk aversion and retreat expectations that Japan will weaken the currency
after a fresh warning by the U.S. last week against intervention. The dollar
index is quoting with minor gains at 95.34, not too far from a two-month
high of 95.502 touched last week.
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Improved but PMI Signals Subdued
Growth
Eurozone consumer confidence improved for a second straight month and at
a faster-than-expected pace in May to its highest level in four
months, preliminary data from the European Commission showed Monday.
The flash consumer confidence index climbed to -7 from -9.3 in April.
Eurozone private sector growth weakened to the lowest level in more than a
year in May as improvements in Germany and France were offset by
softening of activity outside the big-two economies. The flash composite
output index fell unexpectedly to a 16-month low of 52.9 from 53 in
April, the results of the Purchasing Managers' Survey by Markit Economics
revealed Monday. The index was forecast to rise to 53.2. The dollar rose to a
high of $1.1186 against the Euro Monday, but has since retreated to around
$1.1210.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR MAY FUT. DAILY CHART
Buy on Dips; Up Trend Intact
USDINR
pair
closed
67.57, highest level since
March 2016.
at
2nd
For last two and half months pair
was trading in the range of 66.15
to 67 and now same has been
taken out on the upside.
200 DMA placed at 66.54 can act
as a positional support.
20 DMA crossed 50 DMA on the
upside.
Earlier resistance of 67 can act as a
support going forward.
RSI on the daily chart has turned
extremely overbought.
Overall trend of the USDINR pair is
bullish.
However,
due
to
overbought conditions, we advise
buying on Dips at 67.30-67.20
range
for
the
target
of
67.80, keeping stop loss at 66.88
Hedgers Perspective:
Importers: Importers are advised to hedge their short term imports by Buying June Month USDINR Futures.
Exporters: Exporters can wait for their short term receivables and hedge in the range of 68.00 to 68.15.
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
TECHNICAL LEVELS
Near Month
Last
Exp. Open*
Trend Bias for Today
Range
S2
S1
R1
R2
USDINR
67.57
67.65
Bullish/ Buy on Dips
67.80-67.30
67.22
67.40
67.66
67.76
75.47
75.64
75.90
75.99
EURINR
75.81
75.82
Short Covering
75.99-75.50
GBPINR
97.79
97.95
Bullish
98.20-97.70
97.38
97.59
98.04
98.28
JPYINR
61.79
61.88
Bullish
62.05-61.70
61.14
61.47
61.97
62.15
Spot
Wkly
High
Wkly
Low
1-Mth.
High
1-Mth.
Low
52 Wk
High
52 Wk
Low
5 DMA
20 DMA
50 DMA
100 DMA
200 DMA
USDINR
67.50
66.67
67.50
66.10
68.79
63.31
67.23
66.73
66.72
67.12
66.36
EURINR
75.80
75.31
77.01
74.69
77.49
68.74
75.62
75.81
75.23
74.64
73.58
GBPINR
98.67
95.71
98.67
93.95
105.28
93.34
97.72
96.86
95.68
96.28
98.45
JPYINR
61.52
60.85
62.84
59.45
62.84
50.84
61.24
61.44
60.60
59.56
57.03
CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open
High
Low
Close
Chg.
Open
Interest
Chg.
Volume
Chg.
SPOT USDINR
67.30
67.50
67.26
67.50
0.05
--
--
--
--
USDINR MAY FUT.
67.49
67.59
67.32
67.57
0.01
1734728
-19316
1016312
-696847
SPOT EURINR
75.69
75.71
75.44
75.69
0.01
--
--
--
--
EURINR MAY FUT.
75.75
75.83
75.57
75.81
-0.02
55068
-6715
45943
7778
SPOT GBPINR
97.91
97.98
97.53
97.70
-0.59
--
--
--
--
GBPINR MAY FUT.
97.99
98.08
97.63
97.79
-0.66
33325
-12952
85355
20084
SPOT JPYINR
61.44
61.67
61.25
61.63
0.51
--
--
--
--
JPYINR MAY FUT.
61.32
61.82
61.32
61.79
0.55
25410
338
33208
17258
Currency
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
USDINR MAY MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION
CALL
OI Chg.
359
400
284
256
350
300
163
0
0
11
0
29
3
42
73
25
38
17
1
24
67
100
114
121
114
150
50
0
66.00
66.50
IV
67.00
67.50
CALL
68.00
68.50
69.00
Strike
Price
LTP
PUT
LTP
IV
Volume OI Chg.
-730
816
8.82 1.5075
66.00
0.0025 9.64
2059 -1524
9.39 1.2925
66.25
0.0025 8.26
1892
162
1.09
66.50
0.0075 8.15 38531
1509
4673 10.06 0.8425
66.75
0.01 6.88 21849 -2598
-1700
152
157
200
Volume
-34543 44127 12.04
250
160
Thousands
USDINR OI DISTRIBUTION
-2771 35725
8.48
0.605
67.00
0.02 6.05299282 -1684
-2329 39294
6.68 0.3725
67.25
0.04 5.04155615 12557
32071171509
6.05
0.195
67.50
0.1275 5.32114912 -4222
24511104986
5.92
0.085
67.75
0.2525 4.47
4718
557
7434 78333
6.22
0.035
68.00
0.4625 4.39
4794
-476
1081
5297
6.15
0.01
68.25
0.725 7.45
-2
-2054
5505
6.92
0.005
68.50
1.0815.98
1368912
941899
TOTAL OI
PUT
OI PUT CALL RATIO : 0.69
ECO. DATA TODAY
ECO. DATA RELEASED
Date Time
Country
Event
Date Time
Country
05/24/2016 14:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing
Apr
5.8b
4.2b
05/23/2016 05:20
JN
Trade Balance
05/24/2016 14:30
EC
ZEW Survey Expectations
May
--
21.5
05/23/2016 07:30
JN
Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg
May P
--
47.6
48.2
05/24/2016 19:30
US
Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
May
14
05/23/2016 13:30
EC
Markit Euro zone Mfg. PMI
May P
51.9
51.5
51.7
05/24/2016 19:30
US
New Home Sales
Apr
521k
511k
May P
53.2
53.1
53.1
May P
53.2
52.9
53
Period Survey Prior
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
Event
Markit Eurozone Services
PMI
Markit Eurozone
Composite PMI
Period Survey Actual
Apr
Prior
540.0b 823.5b 754.2b
05/23/2016 13:30
EC
05/23/2016 13:30
EC
05/23/2016 19:15
US
Markit US Mfg. PMI
May P
51
50.5
50.8
05/23/2016 19:30
EC
Consumer Confidence
May A
-9.0
-7.0
-9.3
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any position in Instruments NO
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
