HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

24 January, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY Rupee Consolidation with Positive Bias
The rupee has been consolidating in narrow range of mere 50 paise
JPYINR JAN FUT. since last couple of weeks amid lower dollar demand. Traders
remained cautious, closely watching the policy change from US
BUY AT CMP TGT 60.40 SL 59.85 govt. which will dictates the trend for dollar over the period.
Rupee opened at 68.06 against the US dollar and closed at 68.22
MAJOR CURRENCY down 0.05% from its previous close of 68.18.
The 10-year bond yield ended at 6.453%, compared to previous
Prev. close of 6.465%.
Close Chg. % Chg. The one month forward USDINR non-deliverable forwards quoting at
Close
68.34 from yesterdays 68.44 indicating weaker opening of the pair
USDINR 68.215 68.178 0.038 0.06%
at domestic bourses. We remains neutral to bearish till pair
DXY INDX 100.02 100.16 -0.140 -0.14% surpasses immediate resistance of 68.40 in spot basis. However, the
EURUSD 1.076 1.077 -0.001 -0.06% lower side also capped around 67.70.
GBPUSD 1.253 1.254 0.000 -0.02%
USDJPY 112.810 112.710 0.100 0.09% Dollar under pressures on US protectionism
DG USDINR 68.138 68.222 -0.084 -0.12%
The dollar triumph near seven-week lows in early Asian trade today,
GLOBAL INDICES pressured by concerns about the impact of U.S President Donald
Trump's protectionist trade stance. Dollar weaken given rising yields
have been main catalyst of its strength.
Prev. Trump signed executive orders intended to renegotiate the free
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico
SGX NIFTY 8429.0 8414.0 15 0.18% yesterday, and also pull out of the 11-nation Pacific Rim Trans-
NIFTY 8391.5 8349.4 42 0.50% Pacific Partnership (TPP).
SENSEX 27117.3 27034.5 83 0.31% The dollar index, a basket of six major peers, slipped 0.14% to
HANG-SENG 22970.1 22898.5 72 0.31% 100.02, after falling to 99.899, its lowest since Dec. 8. Momentum
oscillators, MACD remains bearishly below zero and signal line;
NIKKEI 18877.7 18891.0 -13 -0.07%
MACD bearishly diverged from index in December by forming a
SHANGHAI 3135.1 3136.8 -2 -0.05% lower peak despite dollar gauge rallying to new highs. Initial support
S&P INDEX 2265.2 2271.3 -6 -0.27% just below 100.00 level at 99.849, Dec. 5 low
DOW JONES 19799.9 19827.3 -27 -0.14% Technical measure analyzing the midpoints of historical highs and
NASDAQ 5552.9 5555.3 -2 -0.04% lows versus the yen -- known as an Ichimoku Cloud - suggests the
FTSE recent rally may be coming to an end. The dollar has the potential
7151.2 7198.4 -47 -0.66%
to test the lower base at 110 yen after entering the cloud for the
CAC 4821.4 4850.7 -29 -0.60%
first time since the election. Apart from yen, dollar will weakness
DAX 11545.8 11630.1 -84 -0.73% would be seen against major currencies.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

USDINR pegged near short term moving average of 20 days indicating consolidation.
Momentum oscillators RSI given negative divergence suggesting weakness in the pair.
The pair could head lower towards 67.70, the previous bottom, and face resistance at 68.39.
The short term bias turn neutral to bearish with downside support at 67.715 and 67.3250 until it surpass 68.3875.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR JAN17 68.23 68.16 67.83 67.92 68.08 68.32 68.41 68.56 Short Covering
EURINR JAN17 73.22 73.19 72.94 73.02 73.12 73.30 73.37 73.47 Long Unwinding
GBPINR JAN17 84.96 84.86 84.14 84.34 84.65 85.17 85.37 85.68 Long Buildup
JPYINR JAN17 60.02 59.95 59.24 59.45 59.73 60.23 60.44 60.72 Short Covering

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.27 67.89 68.39 67.42 68.86 66.07 68.11 68.12 68.05 67.40 67.19
EURINR 72.81 72.08 73.24 70.42 77.49 70.42 72.76 71.94 72.06 73.14 74.18
GBPINR 84.22 81.78 85.88 81.78 100.49 80.89 83.80 83.48 84.36 84.42 88.48
JPYINR 60.24 59.09 60.24 57.25 68.11 55.73 59.75 58.83 59.35 62.04 62.88

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Volume
Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.06 68.23 68.02 68.22 0.04 -- -- -- --
USDINR JAN. FUT. 68.20 68.25 68.01 68.23 0.00 1542049 -28297 734149 -105992
SPOT EURINR 73.22 73.24 73.06 73.19 0.69 -- -- -- --
EURINR JAN. FUT. 73.09 73.27 73.09 73.22 0.65 31747 -548 39142 7628
SPOT GBPINR 84.82 85.01 84.49 84.91 1.27 -- -- -- --
GBPINR JAN. FUT. 84.60 85.06 84.55 84.96 1.15 27661 4035 79633 2960
SPOT JPYINR 60.05 60.13 59.85 59.98 0.87 -- -- -- --
JPYINR JAN. FUT. 59.91 60.16 59.67 60.02 0.80 14490 -3327 33822 5257

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

01/24/2017 06:00 JN Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Jan P -- 52.8 52.4

ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

01/24/2017 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan P 54.8 54.9

01/24/2017 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jan P 53.9 53.7
01/24/2017 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jan P 54.5 54.4
01/24/2017 20:15 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jan P 54.3 54.3
01/24/2017 20:30 US Existing Home Sales Dec 5.55m 5.61m
01/24/2017 20:30 US Richmond Fed Mfg. Index Jan -- 8

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]