HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

08 February, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY Decision Day : Rupee Gains 0.72% from last MPC Meet

EURINR FEB. FUT. Rupee falls for first time in 10 days, tracking losses in the local
equity and Asian currencies markets. India's benchmark Sensex
SELL BELOW 72 SL 72.25 TGT 71.65 index fell 0.37% or 104.12 points to closed at 28,335.16. The
partially convertible currency fell 0.3% to 67.41, biggest gain since
MAJOR CURRENCY Jan. 9. It gain in previous nine days was longest winning streak
since June 2011.
Prev. From last MPC Monetary policy meet to till data rupee has gained
Close Chg. % Chg. 0.72% to 67.41 from 67.90.
Close
One month forward non-deliverable forward USDINR trades at
USDINR 67.413 67.219 0.194 0.29%
67.53 from yesterdays 67.65 indicating lower opening at the
DXY INDX 100.36 100.26 0.100 0.10% domestic bourse. However, the session for the day remain volatile
EURUSD 1.069 1.068 0.000 0.02% as two day MPC will announce interest rate today at 2:30 pm IST.
GBPUSD 1.250 1.251 -0.001 -0.10% As the consensus, the market is expecting 25bps cut in lending rate
USDJPY 112.18 112.39 -0.210 -0.19% on back of fiscal prudence and easing inflation. Also, the production
DG USDINR 67.435 67.331 0.104 0.16% activity pace was slower in last couple of months allows RBI to cut
rate.
GLOBAL INDICES Technically, Spot USDINR could find support around psychological
level of 67 while continue to face stiff resistance 67.71.

Prev. Dollar Pulls Above More Than 2-month Lows vs Yen

Close Chg. % Chg.
Close
SGX NIFTY 8781.0 8799.5 -19 -0.21% There were very few economic data from the global market. Among
NIFTY 8768.3 8801.1 -33 -0.37% the major, US trade deficit narrowed by more than expected in the
SENSEX 28335.2 28439.3 -104 -0.37% month of December. US Commerce Department said the trade
HANG-SENG 23221.6 23331.6 -110 -0.47% deficit narrowed to $44.3 billion in December from a revised $45.7
billion in November. ICE dollar index last quoted at 100.36 from
NIKKEI 18909.7 18910.8 -1 -0.01%
yesterdays 100.26.
SHANGHAI 3141.8 3153.1 -11 -0.36% The safe haven appeal shifted to Japanese Yen ahead of US
S&P INDEX 2293.1 2292.6 1 0.02% President Trumps and Japan PM Shinzo Abe on 10th February.
DOW JONES 20090.3 20052.4 38 0.19% Discussions this week between Trump and Abe are likely to focus
NASDAQ 5674.2 5663.6 11 0.19% largely on trade and investment issues, including Japans trade
FTSE surplus with the US, Japanese investment in US infrastructure
7186.2 7172.2 14 0.20%
projects, and the relative currency valuations between the dollar
CAC 4754.5 4778.1 -24 -0.49%
and yen. Early today, yen quoted at 112.18 from yesterdays
DAX 11549.4 11509.8 40 0.34% 112.39.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

USDINR took support around 200 Days moving average placed at 67.25.
Momentum oscillators RSI exited from oversold zone and given positive cross over indicating near term recovery in the pair.
The pair could head lower towards 67.03, the previous bottom, and face resistance at 67.71.
In short term, the pair likely see some short covering with higher side placed around 67.70.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR FEB17 67.55 67.51 67.27 67.34 67.44 67.62 67.69 67.80 Short Covering
EURINR FEB17 72.14 72.21 71.69 71.88 72.01 72.34 72.53 72.66 Short Buildup
GBPINR FEB17 83.53 83.75 82.53 83.01 83.27 84.01 84.49 84.75 Short Buildup
JPYINR FEB17 60.12 60.20 59.64 59.86 59.99 60.34 60.55 60.68 Long Buildup

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.09 67.29 68.39 67.15 68.86 66.07 67.36 67.91 67.96 67.49 67.25
EURINR 73.08 72.26 73.35 70.93 77.49 70.42 72.41 72.58 72.04 72.92 74.05
GBPINR 85.67 83.93 86.27 81.78 100.49 80.89 84.29 84.17 84.33 84.02 87.84
JPYINR 60.04 59.18 60.49 57.71 68.11 57.25 59.73 59.63 58.94 61.41 62.81

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Abs Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Volume
Chg. Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 67.29 67.44 67.28 67.41 0.19 -- -- -- --
USDINR FEB. FUT. 67.45 67.59 67.41 67.55 0.20 1501463 -19171 792980 14585
SPOT EURINR 72.08 72.18 71.84 71.91 -0.28 -- -- -- --
EURINR FEB. FUT. 72.34 72.40 72.08 72.14 -0.28 59763 2934 40918 9842
SPOT GBPINR 83.91 84.00 83.25 83.26 -0.47 -- -- -- --
GBPINR FEB. FUT. 84.00 84.23 83.49 83.53 -0.54 54861 8302 62044 19948
SPOT JPYINR 60.14 60.27 59.91 59.93 0.14 -- -- -- --
JPYINR FEB. FUT. 60.21 60.42 60.07 60.12 0.22 21577 1210 43214 18442

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

02/07/2017 10:30 JN Coincident Index Dec P 115.1 115.2 115

02/07/2017 14:00 UK Halifax House Prices MoM Jan 0.00% -0.90% 1.70%
02/07/2017 19:00 US Trade Balance Dec -$45.0b -$44.3b -$45.2b
02/07/2017 20:30 US JOLTS Job Openings Dec 5580 5501 5505

ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

02/08/2017 14:30 IN RBI Repurchase Rate 8-Feb 6.00% 6.25%

02/08/2017 14:30 IN RBI Reverse Repo Rate 8-Feb 5.50% 5.75%
02/08/2017 14:30 IN RBI Cash Reserve Ratio 8-Feb 4.00% 4.00%
02/08/2017 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 3-Feb -- -3.20%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]