HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

08 December, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCY VIEW POINT
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. RUPEE CHEERS AS CARRY INTACT WITH RBIS STATUS QUO
Close
USDINR 67.635 67.900 -0.265 -0.39% The rupee surged by another 27 paise to close at 67.64 a dollara level last
DXY INDX 100.040 100.52 -0.480 -0.48% seen on 11 November, from its previous close of 67.90. Heavy selling of the
EURUSD 1.077 1.073 0.004 0.41% US dollar by banks and exporters in the face of renewed capital inflows
GBPUSD 1.265 1.260 0.005 0.41% predominantly kept sentiment highly buoyant. The decision is slightly positive
USDJPY 113.360 114.01 -0.650 -0.57% for rupee as unchanged rates could keep currencys yield advantage.
Indian sovereign bond yields climbed the most in more than three years after
DG USDINR 67.613 67.764 -0.151 -0.22%
policy makers surprisingly kept interest rates unchanged ahead of a probable
increase in U.S. borrowing costs this month. The monetary policy committee
GLOBAL INDICES
led by Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel left the benchmark
repurchase rate at 6.25%. Also, RBI withdraws incremental cash reserve ratio
Prev. requirement effective two weeks beginning Dec. 10. The 10-year benchmark
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close bond jumped 21bps to 6.41% on Wednesday, the biggest increase since
SGX NIFTY 8219.5 8142.5 77 0.95% September 2013.
NIFTY 8102.1 8143.2 -41 -0.50% Key points from the RBI statement:
o All six members of the monetary policy committee voted to hold rates
SENSEX 26236.9 26392.8 -156 -0.59%
o Inflation could slow by 10-15 basis points in October-December due to the
HANG-SENG 22965.2 22800.9 164 0.72% cash clampdown. Consumer price gains are projected to be 5% in January-
NIKKEI 18649.0 18496.7 152 0.82% March with risks tilted to the upside, though lower than what was seen in
SHANGHAI 3220.4 3222.2 -2 -0.06% October
S&P INDEX 2241.4 2212.2 29 1.32% o Gross value added -- a key input of gross domestic product -- will grow
DOW JONES 19549.6 19251.8 298 1.55% 7.1% instead of the 7.6% forecast earlier, with risks evenly balance.
Dollar Nurses Losses After U.S. Bond Yields Slip
NASDAQ 5393.8 5333.0 61 1.14%
The euro hovering near a three-week high versus the dollar early today, as
FTSE 6902.2 6779.8 122 1.81% focus shifted to European Central Bank's policy meeting later in the day, and
CAC 4694.7 4631.9 63 1.36% as the greenback was dragged down by a drop in U.S. bond yields. The ECB
DAX 10986.7 10775.3 211 1.96% is expected to announce a six-month extension to its quantitative easing
programme today, while keeping the size of asset purchases unchanged at 80
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Provisional Rs. In Cr) billion euros. Euro edged up 0.2% to $1.077 after gaining 0.3% yesterday. It
was trading within sight of Monday's peak of $1.0797, its highest level since
Segment 07-Dec-16 06-Dec-16 Nov. 15. The dollar index stood at 100.09, down from yesterdays intraday
high of 100.60.
Equity 206.19 -278.55 Japan Q3 GDP Knocked Down
Debt -2412.37 -9529.04 Japan's gross domestic product was bumped down to +0.3% on quarter in
the third quarter of 2016. On a yearly basis, GDP was knocked all the way
down to 1.3% from the preliminary reading of 2.2%. The dollar eased 0.36%
versus the yen to 113.36 yen.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
The spot USDINR broken near term support of 67.90 and closed at 67.635, the 50% retracement level adjoining recent low
66.3362 and high 68.8625.
The pair closed below middle band of the Bollinger and heading towards lower band.
Momentum oscillators turned bearish on daily scale suggesting downward movement in the pair.
In near term, the pair would continue down trend with expected support around 67.14 while face resistance at 68.50.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR 67.76 67.87 67.31 67.53 67.65 67.98 68.20 68.32 Bearish
EURINR 72.73 72.85 72.17 72.44 72.58 73.00 73.26 73.41 Volatile
GBPINR 85.51 85.68 84.49 84.95 85.23 85.97 86.42 86.70 Consolidation/ Bearish
JPYINR 59.48 59.61 58.92 59.20 59.34 59.75 60.02 60.16 Short Covering

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.80 68.21 68.86 66.34 68.86 66.07 68.06 68.02 67.23 67.09 67.13
EURINR 73.34 72.44 75.64 71.82 77.49 71.50 72.80 72.82 73.45 74.10 74.73
GBPINR 86.42 85.02 86.88 80.89 101.87 80.89 86.23 85.10 83.65 85.76 90.30
JPYINR 61.50 59.74 66.11 59.27 68.11 53.86 59.65 61.20 63.11 64.33 63.09

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 67.82 67.98 67.63 67.64 -0.27 -- -- -- --
USDINR DEC. FUT. 67.90 68.09 67.76 67.76 -0.27 1423086 -56627 1454339 396892
SPOT EURINR 72.74 72.94 72.51 72.57 -0.54 -- -- -- --
EURINR DEC. FUT. 73.05 73.11 72.70 72.73 -0.56 35142 384 42791 1847
SPOT GBPINR 85.89 86.00 85.22 85.28 -1.36 -- -- -- --
GBPINR DEC. FUT. 86.05 86.14 85.40 85.51 -1.29 31753 3922 68396 33266
SPOT JPYINR 59.50 59.59 59.27 59.27 -0.27 -- -- -- --
JPYINR DEC. FUT. 59.67 59.88 59.47 59.48 -0.25 34736 2911 24062 735

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior
12/07/2016 14:30 IN RBI Repurchase Rate 7-Dec -- 6.25% 6.25%
12/07/2016 14:30 IN RBI Reverse Repo Rate 7-Dec -- 5.75% 5.75%
12/07/2016 14:30 IN RBI Cash Reserve Ratio 7-Dec -- 4.00% 4.00%
12/07/2016 15:00 UK Industrial Production YoY Oct 0.40% -1.10% 0.30%
12/07/2016 15:00 UK Manufacturing Production YoY Oct 0.80% -0.40% 0.20%
12/07/2016 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 2-Dec -- -0.70% -9.40%
12/07/2016 20:30 UK NIESR GDP Estimate Nov 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
12/08/2016 05:20 JN GDP Annualized SA QoQ 3Q F 2.30% 1.30% 2.20%

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
12/08/2016 18:15 EC ECB Main Refinancing Rate 8-Dec 0.00% 0.00%
12/08/2016 18:15 EC ECB Deposit Facility Rate 8-Dec -0.40% -0.40%
12/08/2016 18:15 EC ECB Marginal Lending Facility 8-Dec 0.25% 0.25%
12/08/2016 18:15 EC ECB Asset Purchase Target Dec EU80b EU80b
12/08/2016 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 3-Dec 255k 268k
12/08/2016 19:00 US Continuing Claims 26-Nov 2048k 2081k

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]