HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY
26 August, 2016
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
VIEW POINT
MAJOR CURRENCY
Prev.
Close
67.101
94.678
1.128
1.319
100.46
67.056
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR
67.055
94.659
1.129
1.321
100.510
67.029
Chg.
% Chg.
-0.046
-0.019
0.001
0.002
0.050
-0.027
-0.07%
-0.02%
0.08%
0.11%
0.05%
-0.04%
GLOBAL INDICES
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SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX
8660.0
8592.2
27835.9
22947.6
16448.0
3081.0
2172.5
18448.4
5212.2
6816.9
4406.6
10529.6
8641.5
8650.3
28059.9
22815.0
16556.0
3068.3
2175.4
18481.5
5217.7
6835.8
4435.5
10623.0
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Chg.
% Chg.
19
-58
-224
133
-108
13
-3
-33
-5
-19
-29
-93
0.21%
-0.67%
-0.80%
0.58%
-0.65%
0.41%
-0.14%
-0.18%
-0.11%
-0.28%
-0.65%
-0.88%
(Provisional Rs. In Cr)
Segment
25-Aug-16
24-Aug-16
Equity
-32.57
6.25
Debt
-367.65
691.29
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
RUPEE STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF US FED CHAIR JANET YELLEN
STATEMENT
Indian rupee gains against US dollar on Thursday following
exporter and banks selling. Investors also turned cautious awaiting
US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellens speech, which could
provide a clue on further interest rates hike or cut. Besides, a
weakness in US greenback against some major currencies overseas
too supported the rupee.
The home currency closed at 67.06 per dollar, up 0.07% from` its
previous close of 67.10. The rupee opened at 67.08 per dollar and
touched a high and a low of 67.05 and 67.11 respectively. The 10year bond yield was trading at 7.123%, compared with its
Wednesdays close of 7.135%. Bond yields and prices move in
opposite directions.
USDINR near month future has been consolidating in range of
66.80 to 67.49. The USDINR August contract expiry might settle in
the range 66.90 -67.20 on 29th August.
Dollar Inches Lower Ahead Of Yellen Speech
The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of
six major counterparts, edged down 0.1% to 94.718, on track for a
modest gain of 0.2% for the week. The dollar remained on
tenterhooks on Friday, ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Janet
Yellen's highly anticipated speech later in the session that some
believe could provide clarity on whether U.S. interest rates are
headed higher this year.
Data overnight reinforced recent upbeat assessments of the U.S.
economy. New orders for U.S. manufactured capital goods rose for
a second straight month in July as demand for machinery and a
range of other products picked up, while the number of Americans
filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly dropped. The
release of the U.S. data, futures markets were indicating a 24%
chance the Fed will hike rates at its policy meeting next month and
a roughly 57% chance of an increase in December, according to
the CME Group's Fed-Watch.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR AUGUST FUTURE DAILY CHART
Technical Observations
The pair is resisting around 50 SDMA. It broken 200 SDMA support in Thursdays session.
Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms intact on daily chart.
Momentum Oscillators heading lower.
Recent bottom of 66.72 is strong support, while resistance for the same is placed at 67.49.
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
TECHNICAL LEVELS
Aug Month
Last
Pivot
S3
S2
S1
R1
R2
R3
USDINR
67.06
67.08
66.90
66.97
67.01
67.12
67.19
67.23
EURINR
75.67
75.64
75.40
75.47
75.57
75.74
75.81
75.91
GBPINR
88.50
88.58
88.00
88.22
88.36
88.72
88.94
89.08
JPYINR
66.73
66.76
66.45
66.56
66.65
66.85
66.96
67.05
Spot
Wkly
High
Wkly
Low
1-Mth.
High
1-Mth.
Low
52 Wk
High
52 Wk
Low
5 DMA
20 DMA
50 DMA
100 DMA
200 DMA
USDINR
67.06
66.74
67.43
66.67
68.79
64.70
67.09
66.91
67.16
66.97
66.99
EURINR
75.98
74.78
76.15
73.63
77.49
70.24
75.87
74.90
74.91
75.22
74.24
GBPINR
88.09
86.16
90.20
86.16
103.52
86.16
88.36
87.71
89.44
92.96
95.20
JPYINR
67.00
65.96
67.08
62.64
68.11
53.32
66.86
66.10
65.34
63.44
60.45
CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open
High
Low
Close
Chg.
Open
Interest
Chg. in OI
Volume
Chg. In
Volume
SPOT USDINR
67.08
67.11
67.01
67.06
-0.05
--
--
--
--
USDINR Aug FUT.
67.12
67.14
67.03
67.06
-0.11
1102263
-98982
534811
-128016
SPOT EURINR
75.63
75.74
75.54
75.68
0.00
--
--
--
--
EURINR Aug FUT.
75.68
75.71
75.54
75.67
-0.04
43744
-121
30492
-13626
SPOT GBPINR
88.72
88.78
88.41
88.50
-0.33
--
--
--
--
GBPINR Aug FUT.
88.77
88.80
88.44
88.50
-0.44
30347
-3087
42046
-24043
SPOT JPYINR
66.79
66.85
66.73
66.76
-0.22
--
--
--
--
JPYINR Aug FUT.
66.88
66.88
66.68
66.73
-0.26
42308
-8207
33278
-2900
Currency
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
ECO. DATA RELEASED
Date Time
Country
Event
08/25/2016 18:00
US
Durable Goods Orders
08/25/2016 18:00
US
08/25/2016 18:00
Period
Survey
Actual
Prior
Jul P
3.40%
4.40%
-4.20%
Initial Jobless Claims
20-Aug
265k
261k
262k
US
Continuing Claims
13-Aug
2155k
2145k
2175k
08/25/2016 19:15
US
Markit US Services PMI
Aug P
51.8
50.9
51.4
08/25/2016 19:15
US
Markit US Composite PMI
Aug P
--
51.5
51.8
08/25/2016 19:15
US
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
21-Aug
--
45.3
43.6
08/25/2016 20:30
US
Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
Aug
-2
-4
-6
ECO. DATA TODAY
Date Time
Country
Event
08/26/2016 14:00
UK
GDP QoQ
2Q P
0.60%
0.60%
08/26/2016 14:00
UK
GDP YoY
2Q P
2.20%
2.20%
08/26/2016 14:00
UK
Private Consumption QoQ
2Q P
0.80%
0.70%
08/26/2016 14:00
UK
Exports QoQ
2Q P
0.70%
-0.40%
08/26/2016 14:00
UK
Imports QoQ
2Q P
0.80%
0.10%
08/26/2016 18:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
Jul P
0.10%
0.30%
08/26/2016 18:00
US
GDP Annualized QoQ
2Q S
1.10%
1.20%
08/26/2016 18:00
US
Personal Consumption
2Q S
4.20%
4.20%
08/26/2016 18:00
US
GDP Price Index
2Q S
2.20%
2.20%
08/26/2016 18:00
US
Core PCE QoQ
2Q S
1.70%
1.70%
08/26/2016 19:30
US
U. of Mich. Sentiment
Aug F
90.8
90.4
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
Period
Survey
Prior
Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any position in Instruments NO
Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information
obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or
correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not
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HDFC Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing
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HDFC Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HDFC
Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or
brokerage service transactions. HDFC Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any
compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
This report has been prepared by the PCG team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may
be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, Retail) of HDFC Securities Ltd.
"HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
