HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

14 February, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY Lower Inflation and Strong Domestic Equity Support Stronger
Rupee
USDINR FEB. FUT. Rupee weakened marginally against the US dollar amid weakness in
Asian currencies. The home currency closed at 67.02, down 0.2%
RANGE BOUND 67.25 TO 66.85 from its previous close of 66.88. The local currency opened at 66.91
a dollar and touched a high and a low of 66.90 and 67.04,
MAJOR CURRENCY respectively.
After market, the domestic consumer price index data released
Prev. which was below estimates. CPI inflation for January at 3.17% year
Close Chg. % Chg. on year was lower for the sixth consecutive month, below
Close
Decembers 3.41% and broadly in line with consensus 3.24%.
USDINR 67.015 66.884 0.131 0.20%
forecast. However, core inflation (ex. Veg. and food) reading came
DXY INDX 100.98 100.96 0.020 0.02% at 4.9% restricted central banks from lowering interest rate.
EURUSD 1.060 1.060 0.000 -0.01% The one month forward non deliverable forward USDINR quoting at
GBPUSD 1.252 1.253 0.000 -0.02% 67.15 from yesterdays 67.19 indicating flat to weaker opening of
USDJPY 113.75 113.74 0.010 0.01% the pair at domestic bourses.
DG USDINR 67.060 66.916 0.144 0.21% Technically, Spot USDINR still treading well below major moving
averages suggesting bearishness in coming days.
GLOBAL INDICES
Dollar Steady Ahead of Yellen Testimony
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaking in parliament -
Prev. said the central bank has no intention to alter its yield curve control
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close program just because yields rise globally, as the policy is aimed at
SGX NIFTY 8841.5 8821.0 21 0.23% achieving Japans price stability target. He added monetary policy
NIFTY 8805.1 8793.6 12 0.13% continues to be the crucial factor for price stability and achieving it
SENSEX 28351.6 28334.3 17 0.06% through fiscal policy isnt a shared view among central bankers in
HANG-SENG 23675.4 23711.0 -36 -0.15% Japan or overseas.
The dollar trades near a three-week high against a basket of
NIKKEI 19430.1 19459.2 -29 -0.15%
currencies early today, as investors awaited congressional testimony
SHANGHAI 3210.8 3216.8 -6 -0.19% by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen for clues to the pace of the
S&P INDEX 2328.3 2316.1 12 0.52% central bank's interest rate increases. ICE Dollar index last quoted
DOW JONES 20412.2 20269.4 143 0.70% at 100.98, not far from yesterdays high of 101.11, which was its
NASDAQ 5764.0 5734.1 30 0.52% loftiest peak since Jan. 20.
FTSE Yellen will present the U.S. central bank's semi-annual report on
7278.9 7258.8 20 0.28%
monetary policy and the economy in testimony to the Senate
CAC 4888.2 4828.3 60 1.24%
Banking Committee on Tuesday, followed by a the semi-annual
DAX 11774.4 11667.0 107 0.92% monetary testimony before the House Financial Committee on
Wednesday.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

USDINR rebounds from the recent multiple support line around 66.76. However, the pair is still placed well below long term and
short term moving averages indicating down trend.
Momentum oscillators are still hovering in oversold zone with out any divergence indicating continuation of down trend..
The pair could head lower towards 66.34 the previous bottom, and face resistance at 67.32.
In short term, the pair likely continue bearish movement with downside immediate support of 66.34, the level seen on 10th
November 2016 while 67.26 the 200 SDMA remains resistance.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR FEB17 67.12 67.07 66.83 66.90 67.01 67.19 67.25 67.36 Short Covering
EURINR FEB17 71.49 71.43 70.93 71.07 71.28 71.64 71.78 71.99 Short Covering
GBPINR FEB17 84.10 83.98 83.43 83.58 83.84 84.24 84.39 84.65 Short Covering
JPYINR FEB17 59.05 59.01 58.64 58.75 58.90 59.16 59.27 59.42 Unwinding

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 67.44 66.77 68.39 66.77 68.86 66.07 67.07 67.67 67.84 67.49 67.26
EURINR 72.50 71.06 73.35 70.93 77.01 70.42 71.47 72.39 71.92 72.77 73.97
GBPINR 84.28 83.25 86.27 81.78 100.49 80.89 83.72 84.34 84.15 83.91 87.59
JPYINR 60.27 58.75 60.49 57.71 68.11 57.25 59.42 59.61 58.88 61.13 62.76

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Abs Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Volume
Chg. Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 66.91 67.04 66.90 67.02 0.13 -- -- -- --
USDINR FEB. FUT. 66.96 67.14 66.96 67.12 0.14 1662817 -8973 824260 -331302
SPOT EURINR 71.00 71.37 71.00 71.33 0.12 -- -- -- --
EURINR FEB. FUT. 71.26 71.57 71.22 71.49 0.11 70499 -141 40326 465
SPOT GBPINR 83.57 83.94 83.57 83.94 0.42 -- -- -- --
GBPINR FEB. FUT. 83.72 84.13 83.72 84.10 0.36 42154 -3723 43742 -12761
SPOT JPYINR 58.72 58.98 58.72 58.92 -0.03 -- -- -- --
JPYINR FEB. FUT. 58.86 59.12 58.86 59.05 -0.02 23568 -470 13522 -17811

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

02/13/2017 17:30 IN CPI YoY Jan 3.24% 3.17% 3.41%

02/14/2017 07:00 CH CPI YoY Jan 2.40% 2.50% 2.10%

ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

02/14/2017 10:00 JN Industrial Production YoY Dec F -- 3.00%

02/14/2017 12:00 IN Wholesale Prices YoY Jan 4.34% 3.39%
02/14/2017 15:00 UK CPI YoY Jan 1.90% 1.60%
02/14/2017 15:00 UK House Price Index YoY Dec 6.50% 6.70%
02/14/2017 15:30 EC Industrial Production WDA YoY Dec 1.70% 3.20%
02/14/2017 15:30 EC GDP SA YoY 4Q P 1.80% 1.80%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]