HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

11 January, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY
Rupee : Weak Start on Foreign Fund Outflow
EURINR JAN. FUT. Rupee erased most of the gains yesterday and closed little changed
BUY ARND 72.15 SL 71.95 TGT 72.55 against the US dollar as the traders cautious on foreign fund outflow
ahead of macro data scheduled on Thursday. The rupee closed at
68.18 a dollar, up 0.03% from Monday's close of 68.21. The rupee
MAJOR CURRENCY opened at 68.09 a dollar and touched a high and a low of 67.99 and
68.21 respectively.
Prev. The one month forward USDINR NDF quoted at 68.44 from yesterdays
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close 68.33 indicating strong start at domestic bourses. However, stronger
USDINR 68.183 68.205 -0.022 -0.03% equity and stable dollar could limit the intraday gains. Technically, Spot
DXY INDX 102.16 102.01 0.150 0.15% USDINR likely to resist around 68.40 while continue to find support
EURUSD 1.055 1.055 0.000 -0.03% around 67.95. However, the overall bias remains bullish until 67.70
taken out.
GBPUSD 1.217 1.218 -0.001 -0.06%
USDJPY 116.10 115.77 0.330 0.29% Dollar Seesaw ahead Trumps Conference
DG USDINR 68.437 68.329 0.108 0.16% The USD zigged and zagged, as investors repositioned and pared bets
ahead of Trump press conference set today; hopes are high for
GLOBAL INDICES concrete details of fiscal stimulus spending. The dollar reversed a
modest overnight drop to score small gains as it rose against most of
its G-10 peers, some of which were seen unwinding recently set dollar
Prev. shorts after downside momentum waned.
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close USD/JPY trading sideways after filling offers above 116.20 on the way
SGX NIFTY 8331.0 8298.0 33 0.40% to highs earlier in the session. Trump conference could well be the
NIFTY 8288.6 8236.1 53 0.64% catalyst for the dollars next major move.
SENSEX 26899.6 26726.6 173 0.65% Job openings ticked up in November as hiring expanded, signaling
HANG-SENG 22925.4 22744.9 181 0.79% steady growth in U.S. employment, a Labor Department report
NIKKEI 19370.9 19301.4 69 0.36% showed. Number of positions waiting to be filled rose by 71,000 to 5.52
million (forecast was 5.5 million), from 5.45 million in October (revised
SHANGHAI 3157.2 3161.7 -4 -0.14%
from 5.53 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover
S&P INDEX 2268.9 2268.9 0 0.00% Survey, or JOLTS.
DOW JONES 19855.5 19887.4 -32 -0.16% Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney scheduled to testify in
NASDAQ 5551.8 5531.8 20 0.36% front the U.K. Parliaments Treasury Select Committee today, GBP/USD
FTSE 7275.5 7237.8 38 0.52% stands at risk of making another failed attempt to close below the
CAC 4888.2 4887.6 1 0.01% 1.2100. A rebound in U.K. Industrial and Manufacturing Production
DAX 11583.3 11564.0 19 0.17% may also help to mitigate the bearish sentiment surrounding the British
Pound as it instills an outlook for growth.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
SPOT USDINR HOURLY CHART

Technical Observations

USDINR manages to sustain above middle band of the Bollinger on hourly chart indicating bullish bias. However, on daily chart
band is narrow suggesting consolidation before break out.
Momentum oscillators on hourly time scale exited from overbought zone on gap down opening, but recovery from lower level
unable to give strength on oscillators.
The bias remains bullish till it holds the support of 67.70 while sustainable trade above 68.40 open 68.86 on higher side.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR JAN17 68.33 68.27 67.98 68.06 68.19 68.40 68.48 68.61 Consolidation
EURINR JAN17 72.36 72.40 72.06 72.18 72.27 72.49 72.61 72.70 Long Buildup
GBPINR JAN17 83.11 83.01 82.47 82.62 82.86 83.25 83.40 83.64 Bearish
JPYINR JAN17 58.96 58.99 58.37 58.59 58.77 59.17 59.39 59.57 Short Covering

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.37 67.75 68.68 67.33 68.86 66.07 68.07 67.98 67.79 67.30 67.12
EURINR 72.12 70.93 73.35 70.42 77.49 70.42 71.66 71.21 72.24 73.41 74.28
GBPINR 84.30 83.32 86.88 82.51 100.49 80.89 83.40 83.79 84.31 84.87 88.97
JPYINR 58.72 57.71 60.98 57.25 68.11 55.73 58.40 58.03 60.11 62.58 62.95

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Volume
Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.09 68.21 67.99 68.18 -0.02 -- -- -- --
USDINR JAN. FUT. 68.22 68.35 68.14 68.33 -0.05 1697687 2300 764811 -58784
SPOT EURINR 72.24 72.34 72.11 72.17 0.36 -- -- -- --
EURINR JAN. FUT. 72.31 72.53 72.31 72.36 0.36 39751 4662 45372 10211
SPOT GBPINR 82.81 82.89 82.51 82.85 -0.20 -- -- -- --
GBPINR JAN. FUT. 83.13 83.16 82.77 83.11 -0.17 34989 1170 58938 -20514
SPOT JPYINR 58.94 59.06 58.74 58.81 0.42 -- -- -- --
JPYINR JAN. FUT. 59.00 59.20 58.80 58.96 0.39 25427 -1012 36585 4224

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

01/10/2017 20:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Nov F 0.90% 1.00% 0.90%

01/10/2017 20:30 US JOLTS Job Openings Nov 5517 5522 5534

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

01/11/2017 15:00 UK Trade Balance Nov -3550 -1971
01/11/2017 15:00 UK Industrial Production YoY Nov 0.50% -1.10%
01/11/2017 15:00 UK Manufacturing Production YoY Nov 0.40% -0.40%
01/11/2017 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 6-Jan -- 0.10%
01/11/2017 20:30 UK NIESR GDP Estimate Dec 0.50% 0.40%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]