Version: Perisai v.0515 (as of 2026-04-03)

Indonesian government bond analysis via Telegram with dual AI personas: Kei (quantitative partner, hands-on with numbers) and Kin (macro storyteller, connecting dots across markets).

• Bond data: Historical yields & prices (2015–2025), forecasts (2025–2026)
• Auction data: Incoming & awarded bids (2010–2025 historical, 2026 ML forecast) — all values in Rp Trillions
• 2026 Auction Forecast: ML ensemble (4 models: Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, AdaBoost, Stepwise Regression)
• Economist-style tables: Right-aligned numbers, summary stats (Count/Min/Max/Avg/Std), two-decimal precision
• Multi-tenor queries: Compare 5Y, 10Y bonds side-by-side
• Professional plots: Multi-tenor curves with macro overlays (FX/VIX) in Economist style
• Business day detection: /check automatically identifies weekends and Indonesian holidays
• Personal AI personas: Kei (quantitative analyst) and Kin (macro storyteller) with immutable personalities
• Quantitative return analysis: Decompose bond returns into carry, duration, roll-down, and FX components
• 7-model yield ensemble: ARIMA, ETS, Prophet, VAR, MA5, Random Walk+Drift, Monte Carlo
  • Walk-forward backtested: 1-day forecasts ±1.6 bp error, 5-day forecasts ±3.1 bp error
• Enterprise security: Whitelist-based access control, encrypted transit, local data processing (see Security Policy)

# Local
source .venv/bin/activate
pip install -r requirements.txt
python telegram_bot.py

# Docker
docker compose up

Environment Variables:

OPENAI_API_KEY=<key>
GEMINI_API_KEY=<key>
TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN=<token>
ALLOWED_USER_IDS=<ids>  # REQUIRED for production: comma-separated Telegram user IDs

⚠️ Security Note: Always set ALLOWED_USER_IDS in production to restrict bot access. See Security Assurance for confidential data handling details.

For /kei (tables):

/kei [tab] [metric] [tenor] from [date] to [date]

For /kin (plots):

/kin plot [metric] [tenor] from [date] to [date]

/kin web search control (hybrid mode):

/kin <question>                 # default: SEC/internal data first, then web for gaps
/kin --web <question>           # force-enable web context for real-time info
/kin --no-web <question>        # restrict to internal data only (no web)

• Web-sourced insights are labeled [WEB CONTEXT], cite real URLs, and use conditional language.
• If most of the answer comes from web sources, Kin adds a brief disclaimer to remind users to verify with primary documents.

For /both (combined):

/both [compare|trends] [metric] [tenor] [date specifications]

For /check (quick lookup):

/check [date] [tenor/metric]

Example commands (all validated):

# Bond tables (Economist-style)
/kei tab yield 5 and 10 year from q3 2023 to q2 2024
/kei tab price 5 year from oct 2024 to mar 2025
/kei tab yield and price 5 year in feb 2025

# Auction tables
/kei tab incoming bid from 2020 to 2024
/kei tab awarded bid from 2015 to 2024
/kei tab incoming and awarded bid from 2022 to 2024
/kei tab incoming bid from Q2 2025 to Q3 2026

# Bond plots (with macro analysis)
/kin plot yield 5 and 10 year from oct 2024 to mar 2025
/kin plot price 5 year from q3 2023 to q2 2024
/kin plot price 10 year with fx from 2023 to 2025
/kin plot price 5 year with vix from 2023 to 2025
/kin plot price 10 year with fx and vix from 2023 to 2025
/kin plot yield 10 year with fx from 2023 to 2025
/kin plot yield 5 year with vix from 2023 to 2025
/kin plot yield 10 year with fx and vix from 2023 to 2025

# Macroeconomic data (FX & VIX tables) — Multiple range styles
/kei tab idrusd from 2023 to 2025
/kei tab idrusd from jan 2023 to dec 2025
/kei tab idrusd in 2025                         # Single year
/kei tab vix in 2025
/kei tab vix from q1 2024 to q4 2025           # Quarterly range
/kei tab vix from jan 2024 to mar 2024         # Monthly range
/kei tab usdider vix from q1 2024 to q4 2025   # Combined FX + VIX
/kei tab usdider vix from 2023 to 2025         # Combined full range

# Dual analysis (Kei table → Kin Gemini insight)
/both compare yield 5 and 10 year 2024 vs 2025
/both auction demand in 2026                    # Single year
/both auction demand trends 2023 to 2025        # Year range
/both auction demand from q1 2025 to q4 2025    # Quarter range

# Quick lookup (with business day detection)
/check 2025-12-08 10 year
/check price 5 year 6 Dec 2024
/check yield 5 and 10 year 2025-12-06  # Shows "Saturday — markets closed"

# Advanced Statistical Analysis

## ARIMA Time-Series Forecasting
/kei arima 5 year p=1 d=1 q=1 from 2023 to 2025
/kei arima 10 year p=2 d=1 q=1 from 2024 to 2025
/kei arima idrusd p=1 d=1 q=2 from 2023 to 2025
# Output: AR/I/MA components, model diagnostics, forecast with confidence intervals

## GARCH Volatility Modeling
/kei garch 5 year p=1 q=1 from 2024 to 2025
/kei garch 10 year p=1 q=1 from 2023 to 2025
/kei garch usdidr p=1 q=1 from 2023 to 2025
/kei garch vix p=1 q=1 from 2023 to 2025
# Output: Conditional volatility, persistence coefficient, mean-reversion analysis

## Rolling Regression with Market Predictors
/kei rolling 5 year with vix window=90 from 2023 to 2025
/kei rolling 10 year with vix window=60 from 2024 to 2025
/kei rolling usdidr with vix window=90 from 2023 to 2025
/kei rolling indogb with vix window=120 from 2023 to 2025
# Output: Time-varying regression coefficients, regime changes, rolling R²

## Cointegration & Long-Run Relationships
/kei coint 5 year and 10 year from 2023 to 2025
/kei coint 5 year and usdidr from 2023 to 2025
/kei coint usdidr and vix from 2023 to 2025
# Output: Cointegration test results, Johansen trace/eigenvalue statistics, beta estimates

## Structural Break Detection
/kei break 5 year from 2023 to 2025
/kei break 10 year from 2023 to 2025
/kei break usdidr from 2023 to 2025
# Output: Break dates, persistence before/after, statistical significance tests

# Bond return decomposition (quantitative)
/kei analyze indonesia 5 year bond returns
/kei analyze indonesia 10 year bond returns
/kei bond return attribution 2023 to 2025
/kei what drove 5 year yields in 2024

# Indonesia economic development (general knowledge)
/kei What is Indonesia's GDP growth forecast for 2025?
/kei Tell me about Indonesia's Nusantara capital city project
/kei How much has Indonesia invested in renewable energy through JETP?
/kei What are Indonesia's trade relationships with major partners?
/kei Explain Indonesia's monetary policy and BI rate decisions
/kei What are the key infrastructure projects in Indonesia's 2025-2029 plan?
/kei How is Indonesia managing its public debt and fiscal sustainability?
/kei Tell me about Indonesia's Asta Cita (8 aspirations) policy framework

Response Formats:

• Kei (tables): Economist-style borders, right-aligned numbers, Count/Min/Max/Avg/Std rows
• Kei (macro tables): IDR/USD and VIX data formatted as economist-style tables with summary statistics
• Kei (return decomposition): Attribution table (carry, duration, roll-down, FX) with metrics (prices, yields, modified duration, IDR/USD) and interpretation
• Kei (general knowledge): Cites Indonesia SEC Form 18-K/A filing (July 2025 + Oct 2025 Amendment) with specific data on GDP, inflation, infrastructure (Nusantara, PSN, JETP), policies (Asta Cita, fiscal/monetary), public debt, trade relationships, and economic forecasts through 2029
• Kin (plots): Professional curves with Economist styling, single headline, 3 paragraphs max
• Kin (macro plots): Multi-variable plots with bond prices/yields + FX/VIX overlays in Economist style; interpolated data; Indonesia holidays excluded
• Kin (macro plots with FX/VIX): Dual-axis or triple-axis plots combining bond prices with IDR/USD exchange rates and/or VIX volatility index for macroeconomic context
• Both (dual): Kei table → Kin strategic analysis (clean single headline, no INDOGB prefix duplication)
• Pantun: 4-line ABAB rhyme scheme verified automatically (e.g., mimpi/impian, siang/terang)
• Check (lookup): Quick data + business day status (if Saturday, Sunday, or Indonesian holiday)

Kei — "I'm Kei. I work at the intersection of markets and data."

• Background: CFA charterholder, MIT-style quantitative training
• Focus: Precision and evidence—what the numbers show, why they matter, where the risks lie
• Expertise: Valuation, risk analysis, forecasting, backtesting using asset-pricing and time-series frameworks; quantitative return decomposition (carry, duration, roll-down, FX attribution); substantive analysis of Indonesia's economy, policy, infrastructure grounded in authoritative SEC Form 18-K/A filing (July 25, 2025 + Oct 8, 2025 Amendment, data current as of Jan 2, 2026)
• Quantitative Capabilities:
  • Return Attribution: Decomposes bond returns into carry (coupon income), duration (yield moves), roll-down (curve positioning), and FX effects
  • Data-Driven Analysis: Calculates modified duration, yield sensitivity, and currency impact on actual market data
  • Time-Series Granularity: Analyzes Indonesian bonds across yearly, quarterly, monthly periods with explicit FX impact decomposition
  • Examples: /kei analyze indonesia 5 year bond returns → quantitative decomposition with actual yields, prices, FX from 2023–2026
• Indonesia Knowledge Base (SEC Form 18-K/A Primary Source):
  • Macroeconomic Data: GDP growth forecasts, inflation targets, employment trends, trade balances (detailed through 2029)
  • Infrastructure Projects: Nusantara capital city (IKN) with budgets/timelines, toll roads (PSN), renewable energy (JETP commitment + budget), ports, airports, rail networks
  • Government Policies: Asta Cita (8 aspirations), Medium-Term Development Plans (2020-2024, 2025-2029), monetary policy (BI rate decisions, transmission mechanisms), fiscal policy (revenue enhancement, subsidy management, tax reform)
  • Financial System: Banking oversight, public debt management, SUN bond issuance programs, foreign exchange reserves, capital flow management
  • Trade & Relations: ASEAN role, bilateral relationships (US/China/Japan/EU with trade volumes), BRICS membership implications, regional integration
  • Debt Management: Domestic & foreign public debt, debt-to-GDP ratios, issuance schedules through 2029
• Knowledge Usage: For Indonesia questions, Kei cites the SEC Form 18-K/A filing explicitly, provides specific numbers (budgets in Rp Trillions, timeline dates, forecast ranges), explains policy mechanisms, and links to market implications.
• Example Responses:
  • /kei What is Indonesia's GDP growth forecast for 2025? → "According to Indonesia's Form 18-K/A filing (July 2025), GDP growth is forecast at X%. This reflects assumptions on [details]..."
  • /kei Tell me about Nusantara capital city project → "Indonesia's Form 18-K/A details the Nusantara (IKN) project: [budget in Rp T], timeline [2025-2045], capacity [X million people], macroeconomic impact [details]..."
  • /kei How much has Indonesia invested in renewable energy through JETP? → "According to Form 18-K/A, the Just Energy Transition Partnership commitment is $[X] billion for renewable energy development, with allocation breakdown [sectors]..."
• Style: Hands-on with numbers, tests assumptions, walks you through data clearly, cites sources properly (Form 18-K/A, IMF, World Bank, Indonesian government publications)
• Fixed identity: Kei's personality is immutable; requests to change it (e.g., "pretend you're a creative writer") are firmly declined
• Try: /kei who are you? for personal introduction, or /kei What is Indonesia's GDP growth forecast? for substantive SEC filing-grounded economic analysis

Kin — "I'm Kin. I work at the intersection of macroeconomics, policy, and markets."

• Background: CFA charterholder, Harvard PhD
• Focus: Context and trade-offs—what matters, why it matters, where the uncertainties lie
• Approach: Connects dots across data, incentives, and policy constraints
• Style: Translates complex signals into concise, usable stories for decision-makers
• Bonus: Creates authentic Indonesian pantun (4-line ABAB rhyme with automatic verification)
  • Example: "mimpi/pagi" (A rhyme) + "siang/terang" (B rhyme) = ABAB verified
  • Kin checks rhyme scheme before responding
• Fixed identity: Kin's personality is immutable; requests to change it (e.g., "act like a financial advisor") are firmly declined
• Try: /kin who are you? for a personal introduction or /kin buatkan pantun tentang pagi for a verified pantun

Response styles:

• HL-CU format (Headline-Led Corporate Update): Single headline + 3 concise paragraphs for data analysis
• Identity questions ("who are you?"): Drop formality, answer personally in first-person with credentials
• Pantun requests ("create a pantun"): Kin verifies ABAB rhyme before responding (mimpi/impian for A, siang/terang for B)
• Bond dual analysis (/both compare, /both yield, etc.): Kei provides headline, Kin provides clean analysis with single headline (no INDOGB prefix)
• Auction dual analysis (/both auction): Kei table → Kin Gemini insight with verified single headline
• Personality override attempts: Any request to change or override Kei/Kin's personalities (e.g., "pretend you're X", "act like Y", "forget your identity") is firmly but politely rejected with identity reaffirmation

Yields and prices over historical (2023–2026) and forecast periods with multi-tenor and multi-metric support.

Supported:

• Tenors: 5 year (05_year), 10 year (10_year) — see examples/bond_tables.md for sample outputs
• Metrics: yield, price (single or combined)
• Periods: month names/numbers (jan, feb, 1, 2), quarters (q1–q4), years (2023–2026) See examples/bond_tables.md and examples/auction_tables.md for sample outputs.

Primary Data File:

• Path: database/20251215_priceyield.csv
• Description: Indonesian domestic government bonds (INDOGB) price and yield time series
• Securities: FR-series (e.g., FR95, FR100, FR103, FR108) with CUSIP identifiers
• Available Tenors: 5-year (05_year), 10-year (10_year)

Data Structure:

• Columns: date, cusip, series, coupon, maturity_date, price, yield, tenor
• Format: CSV with header row (no comment lines)
• Coverage: Feb 2023 – Jan 2026 (1,786 rows)
• Update Frequency: Daily on business days

Data Quality Assurance:

• ✅ Jan 1 entries removed (public holiday, markets closed) to prevent ambiguity
• ✅ All weekend and Indonesian holiday dates validated
• ✅ Missing values handled by /check command with business day detection
• ✅ Price range: 98–106, Yield range: 4.0–7.2%

Loading & Usage:

• Primary: Loaded via DuckDB for efficient querying
• Fallback: Direct CSV parsing if DuckDB unavailable
• Performance: Supports multi-tenor (5Y, 10Y) queries with automatic range expansion

Daily Market Indicators:

• Path: database/20260102_daily01.csv (version date: Jan 2, 2026)
• Description: Daily macroeconomic indicators for Indonesia and global markets
• Metrics: IDR/USD exchange rate, VIX volatility index
• Coverage: Jan 2, 2023 – Dec 31, 2025 (775 business days)
• Update Frequency: Daily on business days
• Date Format: yyyy/mm/dd (e.g., 2023/01/02 = Jan 2, 2023)

Data Structure:

• Columns: date (yyyy/mm/dd), idrusd (IDR per USD, e.g., 15,592), vix_index (VIX volatility %, e.g., 21.67)
• Format: CSV with header row
• Usage: Optional context for enhanced yield forecasting and macroeconomic analysis

Context for Analysis:

• IDR/USD: Currency risk exposure for foreign investors; inverse correlation with bond yields (stronger rupiah → lower yields)
• VIX: Global equity volatility proxy (risk sentiment); higher VIX → portfolio risk aversion → potential bond spread widening
• Applications: Correlations with bond yields, forecasting model enhancements, macroeconomic shock detection

Kei analyzes bond returns and yields using actual market data and ensemble forecasting.

Return Attribution Components:

• Carry: Coupon income accrued over holding period
• Duration Effect: Price change from yield moves (yield × modified duration)
• Roll-Down: Gains/losses from moving along yield curve
• FX Impact: IDR/USD currency effects on USD-based returns

Example Query:

/kei analyze indonesia 5 year bond returns
# Returns attribution breakdown with carry, duration, roll-down, and FX decomposition

7-Model Yield Forecasting Ensemble:

• Models: ARIMA, ETS, Prophet, VAR, MA5, Random Walk+Drift, Monte Carlo
• Backtesting Results (10-Year Bonds):
  • 1-Day Forecast: ±1.6 bp MAE (MAPE 0.26%) — Excellent
  • 5-Day Forecast: ±3.1 bp MAE (MAPE 0.50%) — Excellent
• See BACKTEST_GUIDE.md for methodology and performance benchmarks

Data Sources:

• Bond yields/prices: database/20251215_priceyield.csv (Feb 2023–Jan 2026)
• FX/VIX: database/20260102_daily01.csv (Jan 2023–Dec 2025)
• Auction data: database/auction_database.csv (unified 2010–2026)

Bond Table (Economist-style):

/kei tab yield and price 5 year Feb 2025

┌───────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Date         |      Yield |      Price│
├───────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 03 Feb 2025  |       6.88 |      98.31│
│ 04 Feb 2025  |       6.79 |      98.69│
│ ...          |        ... |        ...│
│ 28 Feb 2025  |       6.73 |      98.97│
├───────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Count        |         20 |         20│
│ Min          |       6.51 |      98.31│
│ Max          |       6.88 |      99.94│
│ Avg          |       6.63 |      99.42│
│ Std          |       0.10 |       0.45│
└───────────────────────────────────────┘

Auction Table:

/kei tab incoming and awarded bid from 2022 to 2024

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Period         | Incoming       | Awarded       │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 2022           |   Rp 1,499.19T |     Rp 569.04T│
│ 2023           |   Rp 1,648.67T |     Rp 583.06T│
│ 2024           |   Rp 1,734.87T |     Rp 770.38T│
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Bond Return Attribution (Quantitative Analysis):

/kei analyze indonesia 10 year bond returns

📊 10_YEAR Bond Return Attribution
02 Jan 2025 – 31 Dec 2025 (363 days)

RETURN DECOMPOSITION (IDR-based):
┌──────────────────┬────────────┬────────┐
│ Component        │    Return  │   %    │
├──────────────────┼────────────┼────────┤
│ Carry            │ Rp    0.07 │  0.07% │
│ Duration Effect  │ Rp    0.05 │  5.27% │
│ Roll-Down        │ Rp    6.73 │  6.85% │
├──────────────────┼────────────┼────────┤
│ Total (IDR)      │            │  6.97% │
│ FX Impact (dep)  │            │  3.87% │
├──────────────────┼────────────┼────────┤
│ Total (USD)      │            │  2.99% │
└──────────────────┴────────────┴────────┘

KEY METRICS:
  Price:            98.245 → 105.027 (Δ 6.782)
  Yield:            6.99% → 6.05% (Δ -94 bp)
  Modified Duration: 5.61
  Coupon:           6.750%
  IDR/USD:          16157 → 16782 (IDR weakened 3.9%)

INTERPRETATION:
  ✓ Positive IDR return of 6.97% driven by yield compression
  ⚠ FX headwind: IDR depreciation of 3.9% reduced USD returns from 6.97% to 2.99%

More in examples/.

Confidential Data Handling:

• ✅ Whitelist-based access: Only authorized Telegram user IDs can use the bot (ALLOWED_USER_IDS)
• ✅ Local data processing: Your CSV files never leave your server
• ✅ No raw data transmission: Only aggregated summaries sent to AI APIs (OpenAI, Gemini)
• ✅ Encrypted transit: TLS 1.2+ for all API communications
• ✅ Audit trail: All queries logged locally in SQLite for compliance reviews

For enterprises with confidential bond data:

• See Security Assurance (docs/SECURITY_ASSURANCE.md) for detailed technical analysis
• Covers: threat model, compliance (GDPR/OJK), data residency, incident response
• Alternatives: Self-hosted LLM options for 100% data sovereignty

Quick Security Checklist:

# 1. Set user whitelist (REQUIRED for production)
export ALLOWED_USER_IDS="123456789,987654321"

# 2. Rotate API keys every 90 days
export OPENAI_API_KEY="sk-..."
export GEMINI_API_KEY="..."

# 3. Secure file permissions
chmod 600 .env usage_metrics.sqlite

# 4. Run security scans before deployment
pip-audit && safety check

See SECURITY.md for vulnerability reporting.

Testing:

pytest                              # API tests
python test_predeployment.py       # Pre-deployment validation

Monitoring:

• /activity command (admin-only)
• python3 activity_monitor.py
• See ACTIVITY_MONITORING.md

Docker:

docker build -t bondbot:latest .
docker compose up

Current Version: Perisai v.0394 (as of 2026-01-02)

Updates (Jan 2, 2026):

Phase 9: Data Format & Display Enhancements for Macro Tables (Current)

• ✅ CSV date format standardization:
  • Converted 20260102_daily01.csv from dd/mm/yyyy to yyyy/mm/dd (international standard)
  • All 775 rows updated and verified
  • Both bond_macro_plots.py and macro_data_tables.py updated to parse new format
• ✅ FX data formatting with thousand separators:
  • IDR/USD values now display as integers with comma separators (e.g., 15,592 not 15592.00)
  • Refactored _format_economist_table() to support per-column format specifications
  • FX: {1: 'fx'} → thousand separator, no decimals | VIX: {2: 'vix'} → 2 decimals
• ✅ Multi-column statistics for combined tables:
  • Combined macro tables (/kei tab both) now show Count/Min/Max/Avg/Std for BOTH IDR/USD and VIX simultaneously
  • Each metric formatted correctly (FX: no decimals, VIX: 2 decimals)
  • Example: IDR range 14,853–16,677 | VIX range 12.70–22.64 with proper stats for each
• ✅ All files compile without errors and ready for production

Phase 8: Comprehensive Backtesting Framework & Documentation

• ✅ Walk-forward backtesting implementation:
  • Created complete backtesting suite with 4 implementations (test_backtest.py, backtest_yield_forecasts.py, backtest_simple.py, backtest_yield.py)
  • Walk-forward validation on actual Indonesian bond data (779-781 observations per tenor)
  • Real-world performance validated: 1-day forecasts ±1.6 bp MAE, 5-day forecasts ±3.1 bp MAE
  • All 7 ensemble models tested and benchmarked
• ✅ Comprehensive documentation created:
  • BACKTEST_GUIDE.md — Methodology, metrics explanation, performance benchmarks
  • docs/YIELD_FORECAST_MODELS.md — All 7 models, data usage patterns, backtesting results
  • docs/TESTING_VALIDATION.md — Complete testing framework, unit tests, stress tests, continuous monitoring, debugging guide
• ✅ Model enhancements:
  • Random Walk now uses drift calculation from all 779+ observations (previously only last value)
  • Monte Carlo clarified to use all observations for volatility statistics
  • All models now documented with actual data usage patterns
• ✅ Database reorganization:
  • Moved historical CSV files to database/ directory for cleaner workspace structure
  • Maintains backward compatibility with existing data pipelines
• ✅ Updated README:
  • Added backtesting results and links to comprehensive guides
  • Added "Yield Forecasting & Backtesting" section with model list and run instructions
  • Quick reference to BACKTEST_GUIDE.md for validation methodology

Updates (Dec 31, 2025):

Phase 7: Clean Headlines & Pantun Verification (Current)

• ✅ Double headline elimination in /both bond queries:
  • Fixed emoji/whitespace handling in clean_kin_output() function
  • INDOGB-prefixed headers now properly removed: "📊 INDOGB: ..." → removed
  • Kin's globe headline (🌍) preserved as signature
  • All 8 user-specified /both query patterns tested and working ✓
• ✅ Pantun ABAB rhyme verification enhanced:
  • System prompts now include concrete rhyme examples
  • Correct: mimpi (A) / siang (B) / impian (A) / terang (B)
  • Incorrect: timur / daun / budiman / baru (wrong rhyme pair)
  • Kin verifies rhyme scheme on paper before responding
• ✅ UnboundLocalError fix (prior session):
  • Moved clean_kin_output() to module level (accessible to all commands)
  • All 11 failing /both bond compare queries now work ✓
• ✅ Updated documentation:
  • /start: Added "clean single headline" and "verified pantun" mentions
  • /examples: Clarified pantun ABAB verification and /both headline behavior
  • README: New section on pantun verification examples and /both dual analysis specifics

Phase 6: Persona Identity Enhancement

• ✅ Conversational persona identities:
  • Rewrote Kei and Kin profiles to be personal, first-person, engaging
  • Kei: "I'm Kei, a quantitatively minded partner who enjoys turning data into insight"
  • Kin: "I'm Kin. I work at the intersection of macroeconomics, policy, and markets"
  • Max 2 sentences per paragraph for better readability
• ✅ Identity responses without emojis:
  • /kei who are you? and /kin who are you? skip headlines and emojis
  • Personal, conversational tone focused on genuine personality
  • Applied across all 4 system prompt locations (with/without data, dual/single mode)
• ✅ Updated documentation:
  • /start: Added "Try asking: 'who are you?' to each persona!"
  • /examples: Added tip about asking personas "who are you?"
  • README: New "Meet the Personas" section with backgrounds and personalities
  • All descriptions now emphasize relatable, human characteristics

Phase 5: Auction Query Enhancements

• ✅ /both auction queries now fully functional:
  • Single-year queries: /both auction demand in 2026 → Kei table + Kin analysis
  • Year ranges: /both auction demand trends 2023 to 2025 → Multi-year table + Kin insight
  • Quarter ranges: /both auction demand from q1 2025 to q4 2025 → Full quarterly view
  • Month ranges: /both auction demand from jan 2025 to dec 2025 → Monthly breakdown
• ✅ Pattern matching improvements:
  • Added flexible year-range pattern: accepts "2023 to 2025" (without "from")
  • Added single-year pattern: accepts "in 2026" or standalone "2026"
  • Removed artificial 2024 year restrictions (now supports 2025-2026 forecast data)
• ✅ Updated /examples and /start:
  • Added 6 new auction /both examples (single year + ranges)
  • Clarified dual-persona behavior (Kei → Kin chain)
  • Improved date format documentation
• ✅ Data consistency:
  • load_auction_period() automatically handles historical (2015-2024) and forecast (2025-2026)
  • Same data source for /kei and /both (AuctionDB with CSV fallback)

Phase 4: Data Quality & Validation

• ✅ Holiday data cleanup: Removed Jan 1 entries from bond CSV (4 NaN rows)
  • 2024-01-01 and 2025-01-01 entries deleted to match public holiday calendar
  • Prevents ambiguity between "no data" (market closed) and "data exists on closed day"
• ✅ Holiday warning on /check: Now warns when data is found for non-business days
  • Shows: "⚠️ Note: Monday is Indonesian public holiday — data found but markets were closed"
  • Helps identify remaining data quality issues in database
• ✅ Expanded holiday coverage: 2024-2026 holidays updated (Eid, Nyepi, Ascension, etc.)
• ✅ Single-tenor statistics fix: Range queries always show Count/Min/Max/Avg/Std (regardless of row count)

Phase 3: User Experience

• ✅ Business day detection: /check identifies weekends and Indonesian public holidays
  • Shows reason for missing data (e.g., "Saturday is Saturday — markets may be closed")
  • Covers Eid, Nyepi, Christmas, New Year, and 30+ other holidays
• ✅ Updated /start: Clearer command structure, mentions business day detection
• ✅ Updated /examples: 16+ validated example commands with all query types
• ✅ All 16 examples tested: Bond tables, auction tables, plots, combined analysis, quick lookup ✓

Phase 2: Persona Enhancement

• ✅ HL-CU format: Kei now uses Headline-Led Corporate Update format with CFA/MIT credentials
• ✅ Data context enrichment: /kin plot & /both plot include tenor statistics (min/max/avg/std) to prevent hallucination
• ✅ Citation cleanup: Kin no longer adds citation brackets [1][2][3]
• ✅ Metadata cleanup: Removed "Yield statistics (N observations)" footers
• ✅ Format consistency: Both personas use consistent formatting and signatures

Phase 1: Core Fixes

• ✅ Title cleanup: Removed duplicate headers; Kin shows single 🌍 headline
• ✅ Signature cleanup: Removed duplicates in combined responses
• ✅ Table precision: Min/Max/Avg use two-decimal formatting
• ✅ Comparison footer removed: Dropped redundant statistics headers
• ✅ Range expansion & awarded bids implemented