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v2 Track #3: Counterfactual Causal Attribution (CDP Fetch.failRequest interventions) #3

Description

@hoainho

OpenSpec proposal: openspec/changes/add-counterfactual-attribution/

Single big feature

A4 Counterfactual causal LCP attribution — turns Lighthouse-style 'potential savings' estimates into MEASURED savings. After baseline N runs, pick top-3 candidates, run intervention pass via CDP Fetch.failRequest (remove) / Fetch.fulfillRequest (preload-simulate) / Network.setBlockedURLs (block 3P). Mann-Whitney U significance per candidate. 4-verdict output: causal-with-high-confidence | causal-with-medium-confidence | inconclusive | no-effect.

Status

Phase 5 OpenSpec artifacts COMMITTED (a16c3c5). 1082 LOC. 14 requirements / 30 scenarios. All 5 design questions resolved.

Effort

L (~2 weeks)

Dependencies

🤖 Generated by harness-init dogfood + Sisyphus v2 strategy

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