This repository contains a sequence of small, simulation-based projects designed to build intuition for probability, expected value, risk, and market microstructure.

1. Monte Carlo Expected Value
   Simulates simple betting strategies to show how positive-EV strategies can appear unprofitable over short horizons due to variance.

2. Gambler’s Ruin
   Studies the probability of bankruptcy versus growth under finite bankroll constraints, even when the expected value is positive.

3. Kelly Criterion
   Explores optimal bet sizing by simulating bankroll growth under different fractions, highlighting the trade-off between growth and drawdowns.

4. Market Maker v0 (Fixed Spread)
   Simulates a basic market maker quoting a fixed spread and tracks inventory and P&L.

5. Market Maker v1 (Adaptive Spreads)
   Extends the basic market maker by adjusting spreads based on inventory to manage risk.

6. Poisson Order Flow
   Models order arrivals as a Poisson process and studies how arrival intensity affects inventory risk and P&L volatility.

7. Volatility-Based Quoting
   Introduces stochastic price movement and studies how volatility impacts optimal spreads.

8. Market Making Dashboard
   Integrates previous models into a single interactive environment to visualize inventory, P&L, and risk in real time.