Locking incorrectly claims that dependency is not installed #6944

I might be on a spree of opam locking issues this week...

At https://github.com/sim642/odep/tree/67ce57a013f342da49cdbe73025130d66cd06e12, opam 2.5.1 gives the following message:

$ opam lock .
[ERROR] Skipping odep.0.2.1, dependencies are not satisfied in this switch, not installed packages are:
          - opam-state (< 2.2.0~beta3)

No lock file generated

However, the opam switch I'm in is exported here: https://github.com/sim642/odep/blob/67ce57a013f342da49cdbe73025130d66cd06e12/odep.opam.exported#L79. It has opam-state 2.5.1 installed but opam lock somehow doesn't see this constraint in its entirety:

"opam-state" {>= "2.1.0" & (< "2.2.0~beta3" | >= "2.2.0")}

I thought that maybe it's still trying to lock based on the constraints of odep.0.2.1 in opam-repository, so I did opam pin odep.0.2.2 ..
This installed fine (opam-state was already installed), but opam lock . claims the same (except for odep.0.2.2 this time).