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Interactive site: https://akazukin5151.github.io/nyc-irv/

2025 New York City Democratic mayoral primary analysis

Condorcet analysis of the 2025 New York City Democratic mayoral primary. It was done under IRV (RCV), which does not always elect the Condorcet winner.

Run

Full CVR data from https://www.vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary

Download it and unzip all files into ./data

Run:

cargo b --release
cargo r --release --bin parse
cargo r --release --bin condorcet

Results

$ cargo r --release --bin parse
    Finished `release` profile [optimized] target(s) in 0.03s
     Running `target/release/parse`
Total 951 candidates in all elections
██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 31/31
Found 1114433 ballots total
[src/bin/parse.rs:126:5] &first_prefs = {
    "Brad Lander": 121148,
    "Andrew M. Cuomo": 387664,
    "Zellnor Myrie": 10816,
    "Jessica Ramos": 4444,
    "Michael Blake": 4493,
    "Zohran Kwame Mamdani": 469960,
    "Scott M. Stringer": 18205,
    "Whitney R. Tilson": 8602,
    "Paperboy Love Prince": 1679,
    "Selma K. Bartholomew": 1615,
    "Adrienne E. Adams": 44705,
}
Found 11 named candidates for mayor
Unpadded binary: 6.964151ms

$ cargo r --release --bin condorcet
    Finished `release` profile [optimized] target(s) in 0.03s
     Running `target/release/condorcet`
Reading unpadded binary took 3.512777ms
Read 1114433 ballots
Read 11 candidates
Compute pairwise matrix
Zohran Kwame Mamdani is the Condorcet winner

# <snipped markdown output; rendered below>

Saving pairwise matrix

Number of pairwise wins

Candidate Number of pairwise wins
Zohran Kwame Mamdani 10
Brad Lander 9
Adrienne E. Adams 8
Andrew M. Cuomo 7
Zellnor Myrie 6
Scott M. Stringer 5
Michael Blake 4
Jessica Ramos 3
Whitney R. Tilson 2
Selma K. Bartholomew 1
Paperboy Love Prince 0

Pairwise matchups

Candidate A Result Candidate B Votes for A Votes for B % for A % for B
Zohran Kwame Mamdani beats ✅ Andrew M. Cuomo 573635 443762 56.38% 43.62%
Zohran Kwame Mamdani beats ✅ Brad Lander 535859 234621 69.55% 30.45%
Zohran Kwame Mamdani beats ✅ Adrienne E. Adams 582746 196728 74.76% 25.24%
Zohran Kwame Mamdani beats ✅ Scott M. Stringer 605940 166337 78.46% 21.54%
Zohran Kwame Mamdani beats ✅ Zellnor Myrie 615224 99434 86.09% 13.91%
Zohran Kwame Mamdani beats ✅ Whitney R. Tilson 634868 73668 89.60% 10.40%
Zohran Kwame Mamdani beats ✅ Michael Blake 629677 49744 92.68% 7.32%
Zohran Kwame Mamdani beats ✅ Jessica Ramos 630861 58642 91.50% 8.50%
Zohran Kwame Mamdani beats ✅ Paperboy Love Prince 638291 15927 97.57% 2.43%
Zohran Kwame Mamdani beats ✅ Selma K. Bartholomew 636822 20586 96.87% 3.13%
Brad Lander loses to ❌ Zohran Kwame Mamdani 234621 535859 30.45% 69.55%
Brad Lander beats ✅ Andrew M. Cuomo 527418 441760 54.42% 45.58%
Brad Lander beats ✅ Adrienne E. Adams 545138 205384 72.63% 27.37%
Brad Lander beats ✅ Scott M. Stringer 578968 141462 80.36% 19.64%
Brad Lander beats ✅ Zellnor Myrie 601410 98415 85.94% 14.06%
Brad Lander beats ✅ Whitney R. Tilson 618724 64697 90.53% 9.47%
Brad Lander beats ✅ Michael Blake 609053 65153 90.34% 9.66%
Brad Lander beats ✅ Jessica Ramos 615701 76932 88.89% 11.11%
Brad Lander beats ✅ Paperboy Love Prince 628846 24365 96.27% 3.73%
Brad Lander beats ✅ Selma K. Bartholomew 628094 39792 94.04% 5.96%
Adrienne E. Adams loses to ❌ Zohran Kwame Mamdani 196728 582746 25.24% 74.76%
Adrienne E. Adams beats ✅ Andrew M. Cuomo 457755 451439 50.35% 49.65%
Adrienne E. Adams loses to ❌ Brad Lander 205384 545138 27.37% 72.63%
Adrienne E. Adams beats ✅ Scott M. Stringer 506322 198164 71.87% 28.13%
Adrienne E. Adams beats ✅ Zellnor Myrie 470926 184369 71.86% 28.14%
Adrienne E. Adams beats ✅ Whitney R. Tilson 564461 74280 88.37% 11.63%
Adrienne E. Adams beats ✅ Michael Blake 523248 110878 82.51% 17.49%
Adrienne E. Adams beats ✅ Jessica Ramos 558147 92653 85.76% 14.24%
Adrienne E. Adams beats ✅ Paperboy Love Prince 573839 36537 94.01% 5.99%
Adrienne E. Adams beats ✅ Selma K. Bartholomew 569245 41491 93.21% 6.79%
Andrew M. Cuomo loses to ❌ Zohran Kwame Mamdani 443762 573635 43.62% 56.38%
Andrew M. Cuomo loses to ❌ Brad Lander 441760 527418 45.58% 54.42%
Andrew M. Cuomo loses to ❌ Adrienne E. Adams 451439 457755 49.65% 50.35%
Andrew M. Cuomo beats ✅ Scott M. Stringer 461461 205837 69.15% 30.85%
Andrew M. Cuomo beats ✅ Zellnor Myrie 474945 369199 56.26% 43.74%
Andrew M. Cuomo beats ✅ Whitney R. Tilson 478916 45581 91.31% 8.69%
Andrew M. Cuomo beats ✅ Michael Blake 483764 231199 67.66% 32.34%
Andrew M. Cuomo beats ✅ Jessica Ramos 482636 99085 82.97% 17.03%
Andrew M. Cuomo beats ✅ Paperboy Love Prince 488448 45553 91.47% 8.53%
Andrew M. Cuomo beats ✅ Selma K. Bartholomew 486365 42196 92.02% 7.98%
Zellnor Myrie loses to ❌ Zohran Kwame Mamdani 99434 615224 13.91% 86.09%
Zellnor Myrie loses to ❌ Andrew M. Cuomo 369199 474945 43.74% 56.26%
Zellnor Myrie loses to ❌ Brad Lander 98415 601410 14.06% 85.94%
Zellnor Myrie loses to ❌ Adrienne E. Adams 184369 470926 28.14% 71.86%
Zellnor Myrie beats ✅ Scott M. Stringer 356482 271899 56.73% 43.27%
Zellnor Myrie beats ✅ Whitney R. Tilson 414876 85119 82.98% 17.02%
Zellnor Myrie beats ✅ Michael Blake 378000 133980 73.83% 26.17%
Zellnor Myrie beats ✅ Jessica Ramos 411376 119180 77.54% 22.46%
Zellnor Myrie beats ✅ Paperboy Love Prince 425323 43714 90.68% 9.32%
Zellnor Myrie beats ✅ Selma K. Bartholomew 420203 53501 88.71% 11.29%
Scott M. Stringer loses to ❌ Zohran Kwame Mamdani 166337 605940 21.54% 78.46%
Scott M. Stringer loses to ❌ Andrew M. Cuomo 205837 461461 30.85% 69.15%
Scott M. Stringer loses to ❌ Brad Lander 141462 578968 19.64% 80.36%
Scott M. Stringer loses to ❌ Adrienne E. Adams 198164 506322 28.13% 71.87%
Scott M. Stringer loses to ❌ Zellnor Myrie 271899 356482 43.27% 56.73%
Scott M. Stringer beats ✅ Whitney R. Tilson 308832 75909 80.27% 19.73%
Scott M. Stringer beats ✅ Michael Blake 310799 239145 56.51% 43.49%
Scott M. Stringer beats ✅ Jessica Ramos 312088 112377 73.53% 26.47%
Scott M. Stringer beats ✅ Paperboy Love Prince 328159 47366 87.39% 12.61%
Scott M. Stringer beats ✅ Selma K. Bartholomew 325313 45194 87.80% 12.20%
Michael Blake loses to ❌ Zohran Kwame Mamdani 49744 629677 7.32% 92.68%
Michael Blake loses to ❌ Andrew M. Cuomo 231199 483764 32.34% 67.66%
Michael Blake loses to ❌ Brad Lander 65153 609053 9.66% 90.34%
Michael Blake loses to ❌ Adrienne E. Adams 110878 523248 17.49% 82.51%
Michael Blake loses to ❌ Scott M. Stringer 239145 310799 43.49% 56.51%
Michael Blake loses to ❌ Zellnor Myrie 133980 378000 26.17% 73.83%
Michael Blake beats ✅ Whitney R. Tilson 262823 94676 73.52% 26.48%
Michael Blake beats ✅ Jessica Ramos 252421 140286 64.28% 35.72%
Michael Blake beats ✅ Paperboy Love Prince 266401 51045 83.92% 16.08%
Michael Blake beats ✅ Selma K. Bartholomew 264026 55465 82.64% 17.36%
Jessica Ramos loses to ❌ Zohran Kwame Mamdani 58642 630861 8.50% 91.50%
Jessica Ramos loses to ❌ Andrew M. Cuomo 99085 482636 17.03% 82.97%
Jessica Ramos loses to ❌ Brad Lander 76932 615701 11.11% 88.89%
Jessica Ramos loses to ❌ Adrienne E. Adams 92653 558147 14.24% 85.76%
Jessica Ramos loses to ❌ Scott M. Stringer 112377 312088 26.47% 73.53%
Jessica Ramos loses to ❌ Zellnor Myrie 119180 411376 22.46% 77.54%
Jessica Ramos beats ✅ Whitney R. Tilson 143295 85301 62.68% 37.32%
Jessica Ramos loses to ❌ Michael Blake 140286 252421 35.72% 64.28%
Jessica Ramos beats ✅ Paperboy Love Prince 149848 51720 74.34% 25.66%
Jessica Ramos beats ✅ Selma K. Bartholomew 143194 49128 74.46% 25.54%
Whitney R. Tilson loses to ❌ Zohran Kwame Mamdani 73668 634868 10.40% 89.60%
Whitney R. Tilson loses to ❌ Andrew M. Cuomo 45581 478916 8.69% 91.31%
Whitney R. Tilson loses to ❌ Brad Lander 64697 618724 9.47% 90.53%
Whitney R. Tilson loses to ❌ Adrienne E. Adams 74280 564461 11.63% 88.37%
Whitney R. Tilson loses to ❌ Scott M. Stringer 75909 308832 19.73% 80.27%
Whitney R. Tilson loses to ❌ Zellnor Myrie 85119 414876 17.02% 82.98%
Whitney R. Tilson loses to ❌ Michael Blake 94676 262823 26.48% 73.52%
Whitney R. Tilson loses to ❌ Jessica Ramos 85301 143295 37.32% 62.68%
Whitney R. Tilson beats ✅ Paperboy Love Prince 97673 56089 63.52% 36.48%
Whitney R. Tilson beats ✅ Selma K. Bartholomew 93834 58270 61.69% 38.31%
Selma K. Bartholomew loses to ❌ Zohran Kwame Mamdani 20586 636822 3.13% 96.87%
Selma K. Bartholomew loses to ❌ Andrew M. Cuomo 42196 486365 7.98% 92.02%
Selma K. Bartholomew loses to ❌ Brad Lander 39792 628094 5.96% 94.04%
Selma K. Bartholomew loses to ❌ Adrienne E. Adams 41491 569245 6.79% 93.21%
Selma K. Bartholomew loses to ❌ Scott M. Stringer 45194 325313 12.20% 87.80%
Selma K. Bartholomew loses to ❌ Zellnor Myrie 53501 420203 11.29% 88.71%
Selma K. Bartholomew loses to ❌ Whitney R. Tilson 58270 93834 38.31% 61.69%
Selma K. Bartholomew loses to ❌ Michael Blake 55465 264026 17.36% 82.64%
Selma K. Bartholomew loses to ❌ Jessica Ramos 49128 143194 25.54% 74.46%
Selma K. Bartholomew beats ✅ Paperboy Love Prince 59946 56993 51.26% 48.74%
Paperboy Love Prince loses to ❌ Zohran Kwame Mamdani 15927 638291 2.43% 97.57%
Paperboy Love Prince loses to ❌ Andrew M. Cuomo 45553 488448 8.53% 91.47%
Paperboy Love Prince loses to ❌ Brad Lander 24365 628846 3.73% 96.27%
Paperboy Love Prince loses to ❌ Adrienne E. Adams 36537 573839 5.99% 94.01%
Paperboy Love Prince loses to ❌ Scott M. Stringer 47366 328159 12.61% 87.39%
Paperboy Love Prince loses to ❌ Zellnor Myrie 43714 425323 9.32% 90.68%
Paperboy Love Prince loses to ❌ Whitney R. Tilson 56089 97673 36.48% 63.52%
Paperboy Love Prince loses to ❌ Michael Blake 51045 266401 16.08% 83.92%
Paperboy Love Prince loses to ❌ Jessica Ramos 51720 149848 25.66% 74.34%
Paperboy Love Prince loses to ❌ Selma K. Bartholomew 56993 59946 48.74% 51.26%

Pairwise matrix

The value here is the number of voters that preferred candidate A over B

            | Candidate B
----------- | -----------
Candidate A | value

For the number of voters that preferred candidate B over A, look for:

            | Candidate A
----------- | -----------
Candidate B | value
Zohran Kwame Mamdani Andrew M. Cuomo Brad Lander Adrienne E. Adams Scott M. Stringer Zellnor Myrie Whitney R. Tilson Michael Blake Jessica Ramos Paperboy Love Prince Selma K. Bartholomew
Zohran Kwame Mamdani 573635 535859 582746 605940 615224 634868 629677 630861 638291 636822
Andrew M. Cuomo 443762 441760 451439 461461 474945 478916 483764 482636 488448 486365
Brad Lander 234621 527418 545138 578968 601410 618724 609053 615701 628846 628094
Adrienne E. Adams 196728 457755 205384 506322 470926 564461 523248 558147 573839 569245
Scott M. Stringer 166337 205837 141462 198164 271899 308832 310799 312088 328159 325313
Zellnor Myrie 99434 369199 98415 184369 356482 414876 378000 411376 425323 420203
Whitney R. Tilson 73668 45581 64697 74280 75909 85119 94676 85301 97673 93834
Michael Blake 49744 231199 65153 110878 239145 133980 262823 252421 266401 264026
Jessica Ramos 58642 99085 76932 92653 112377 119180 143295 140286 149848 143194
Paperboy Love Prince 15927 45553 24365 36537 47366 43714 56089 51045 51720 56993
Selma K. Bartholomew 20586 42196 39792 41491 45194 53501 58270 55465 49128 59946

The rows are sorted with the first preferences vote on top.

Looking at the first row with Zohran Kwame Mamdani, for every other candidate, more voters preferred him over the other. Therefore he is the Condorcet winner.

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