A privacy-preserving prediction market built with TFHE (Fully Homomorphic Encryption) and Monero multisig.

• 🔒 Private Betting: Bets are encrypted using FHE - individual amounts and choices remain private
• 🧮 Fair Payouts: Homomorphic computation ensures fair payout distribution without revealing individual bets
• 💰 Monero Integration: Designed to use Monero multisig for trustless fund custody
• 🔐 Cryptographic Claims: Commitment-based system allows only legitimate winners to claim payouts
• 🚀 High-Level API: Easy-to-use REST API and CLI tools

┌─────────┐         ┌──────────────┐         ┌────────┐
│ Bettor  │ ◄─────► │  Coordinator │ ◄─────► │ Oracle │
└─────────┘         └──────────────┘         └────────┘
     │                      │                      │
     │                      │                      │
     ▼                      ▼                      ▼
[FHE Keys]          [Computes Payouts]     [Signs Results]
                    [Holds FHE Keys]
                           │
                           ▼
                  [Monero Multisig 2-of-2]

cargo build --release

Terminal 1:

cargo run --release --bin monero-predict

Terminal 2:

./test_market.sh

See TESTING.md for detailed testing guide.

cargo run --bin bettor -- bet \
  --market-id btc-100k-2025 \
  --outcome YES \
  --amount 10.5

This will:

1. Generate/load FHE client keys
2. Encrypt your bet (outcome + amount)
3. Save a nonce file for claiming later
4. Submit the encrypted bet to the coordinator

cargo run --bin bettor -- claim \
  --market-id btc-100k-2025 \
  --nonce-file bet_<commitment>.nonce \
  --payout-address monero:your_address

• POST /market/create - Create a new prediction market
• GET /market/:id/info - Get market information

• POST /market/:id/bet - Submit an encrypted bet
• GET /market/:id/bets - Get bet count

• POST /market/:id/resolve - Resolve market with oracle signature
• GET /market/:id/result - Get market result

• POST /market/:id/claim - Claim payout with commitment proof

• GET /fhe/server_key - Get compressed server key for verification

src/
├── lib.rs              # Library exports
├── main.rs             # Axum server
├── types.rs            # Core data structures
├── fhe.rs              # FHE context and payout calculator
├── client.rs           # Bettor client
├── coordinator.rs      # Market coordination logic
└── bin/
    └── bettor.rs       # CLI tool

1. Bettor generates FHE client keys
2. Encrypts outcome (0 for YES, 1 for NO) and amount (in piconeros)
3. Creates commitment: H(nonce)
4. Sends Monero to market multisig address
5. Submits encrypted bet + tx proof to coordinator

1. Oracle determines the winning outcome
2. Signs the result
3. Coordinator receives oracle signature
4. Computes payouts homomorphically:
   • Total pool = sum of all bets
   • Total winning = sum of winning bets
   • Individual payout = (bet_amount / total_winning) * total_pool
5. All computations happen on encrypted data!

1. Winner reveals their nonce
2. Coordinator verifies: H(nonce) == commitment
3. Coordinator checks bet outcome matches winning outcome
4. Triggers Monero multisig payout

• Coordinator: Trusted to compute correctly but cannot steal funds (multisig)
• Oracle: Trusted to report accurate outcomes
• Monero Multisig: 2-of-2 between Coordinator and Oracle prevents unilateral fund access

• ✅ Individual bet amounts are hidden
• ✅ Individual outcome choices are hidden
• ✅ Only aggregate statistics revealed (total pool, total winners)
• ✅ Winners can claim anonymously with commitment proof

• Coordinator knows the decryption key (simplified version)
• No prevention of Coordinator revealing bets (would need threshold FHE)
• Oracle is trusted (could use multiple oracles + voting)

• Threshold FHE to distribute decryption key
• Multi-oracle system with dispute resolution
• Actual Monero wallet integration (currently mock)
• Web frontend
• Support for multiple outcomes (not just YES/NO)
• Automated market maker (AMM) for dynamic odds
• Zero-knowledge proofs for enhanced privacy

cargo test

cargo doc --open

cargo clippy
cargo fmt

• tfhe - Fully homomorphic encryption
• axum - Web framework
• tokio - Async runtime
• monero - Monero library
• sha3 - Cryptographic hashing
• clap - CLI argument parsing

This is a research/educational project. See PROMPT.md for the original specification.

This project demonstrates FHE-based privacy for prediction markets. Contributions welcome for:

• Additional privacy features
• Better Monero integration
• UI/UX improvements
• Documentation
• Test coverage

• TFHE-rs Documentation
• Monero Documentation
• Testing Guide