Reality Incursion

 Ah what a January! Grim flu ripping through the family (I was out for a whole week), lots of work catch-up, and no shortage of micro emergencies mixed in. The usual fun times.

I got a reprieve from my Wednesday group for a bit. My son ran two sessions of the Alien RPG using the Chariot of the Gods module, and it was pretty dang fun. He is 13, but already appears to be a chip off the old GM block, having acquired his dad's talent for improvisation and storytelling. It was a glorious adventure and everyone died by the end of session two, which is ironic as that mirrors the way many of my early scenarios went when I was the same age. TPKs were just a thing that happened back in the day, and while its arguable that Alien RPG's approach can make those more readily obvious, I would also argue that not having a TPK in The Caves of Chaos was fairly unusual....TPK was the usual default, especially the first round in.

I haven't been away from GMing exactly; I have now run two sessions of a Savage Worlds Supers campaign, using a blend of classic Supers rules with the Horror Companion for a more "Dark Horse/JLA Dark" style campaign, although in truth I found myself feeling less interested in restricting myself thematically in actual play and the scenario ended up feeling more heavily influenced by the likes of The Titans, Suicide Squad, Nemesis and other thematic elements. I'm not really trying to plot too hard on this one, I decided. Better to just let it all go where it will.

For returning to Wednesday I rapidly ploughed through all my dreams and visions of breaking away from D&D and have accepted that Dragonbane and Mythras are both game systems I would like to tackle, but I still don't reside in the right timeline or frame of mind to accomplish this at the moment. To do justice to either I need to find personal time to invest my energy in the systems,* teasing out what is needed to make them comprehensive campaigns catering to each system's strengths, and be ready to act as tutor to the players, and to do battle with the rules lawyer. I just ain't got that sort of energy anymore. Maybe at some point, or with the right sort of group (the nostalgic one I remember having 25 years ago would be a fine set of test subjects for such a game) but today? Today I need the thing that I already know too well. And even that thing, D&D, requires I spend a bit more time with it to learn the new incongruities and alterations to its recent botox treatment. 

Monster Manual 2025 will be out in like 2 weeks, anyway. Going to be interesting to see how or if it is a game changer for the play experience. 

*The problem is, I have some X amount of free time, but I have 25 things vying for control of it. When I sit down these days to use that precious 2-3 hours a night I have to enjoy something, the time ends up going to a mix of book reading, comic reading, maybe a video or two, and more recently some sessions in World of Warcraft Classic or Path of Exile 2 with my wife. The interest I once had in obsessively sitting down and crafting NPCs and materials for a game system like mythras while building out a campaign that leans in to the unique developmental ethos of the game world of the system just no longer grabs me like it once did. I don't believe this is even a case of "other things are easier," anymore, because I can easily spend hours crafting a campaign setting and scenario set for D&D; it's because I no longer crave that sort of synergetic interaction with rules systems anymore, I find it tedious and uninteresting. It is okay for me, I have accepted, to admit that maybe I have done this hobby too much for too long, and some of it now feels a bit old hat to me, a bit less interesting. That could change with time, or not. But my strength of interest lies in the world building and the storytelling, and the game system which lets me do that with the least amount of fuss is what I must roll with for now, even if I do find the "old me" occasionally surfacing and eyeing Mythras of Dragonbane hungrily, even for but a moment.

Death Bat's 2025 Predictions

 I honestly don't have too many for this year. I have a lot in my personal and professional life to worry about, and so paying attention to gaming trends is pretty low on my list of things right now, but this is a tradition, and I have a few minutes, so here goes!

The RPG Tabletop Predictions

1. D&D 2025 will do just fine

I expect that the game is now too big to suffer any real setback. The worst that could happen is old players churn out, and diehards move to alternative systems, but the game has enough popular attraction to simply replace any churn with fresh blood for Hasbro. That said, I do not expect them to get the virtual tabletop thing together this year, and if/when we see it, I predict a lot of AI will be in use.

2. Nothing else in the RPG sphere will come close to D&D's marketshare

Another low-hanging fruit prediction! I just don't see anything out there on the market or predicted that isn't more traditionally cottage industry/niche corner stuff. Everything will have its rabid fanbase, and the gaming community will continue to be crowded with lots of little tents for lots of little crowds.

3. The looming Tariff Wars will hurt game publishing

It seems like the rise of tariffs on countries where publishers go to save some money on printing will impact the hobby more than a little bit. Get ready for the possibility of $80-$100 hard covers, we could easily see that happen by the end of 2025. Some publishers will skew toward finding local printers, but that will still prove more costly. It is possible (likely) this will lead to game publishers aiming for smaller page count books to offset costs a bit by reducing content. 

4. 13th Age Still won't come out this year

I have no reason to suspect one way or the other, so I am just gonna call it: 13th Age in March 2026!

The Computer Gaming Predictions

1. The Industry will continue to implode as more Games-as-a-Service models fail

I think 2024 was a rough year for the video game industry if you work in it, and 2025 will be similar. The large AAA publishers are more risk averse than ever, and games-as-a-service models are becoming too high risk now, following flops like Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League and Concord. I suspect that we will see AAA companies continue to flounder, and a lot of the energy will get picked up by the B rank and indie publishers for the many genres and styles of games people want but which AAA devs and publishers are ignoring because they can't figure out how to maximize their earnings on them. Either way, more layoffs, more studio shutdowns, and more chaos will fill 2025. 

2. Consoles and PC hardware will get more expensive

The aforementioned likelihood of tariffs imposed on China and abroad will lead to more expensive consoles and PCs. Local manufacturing will not be ready or able to fill the gaps. I predict 2025 is the year we all get real comfortable hoarding the hardware we already have. With luck Nintendo will get Switch 2 out the gate before tariffs impact their import costs, but don't count on it. 

3. 2025 Will be the worst year for new games

I think we're due for a really bad year of uninspired, boring, over-monetized and poorly conceived games. I don't think 2025 will be a kind year to the video game hobbyist and we will see a dearth of meaningful content. Any genuinely good games to come out will be impressive exceptions, and most likely from the B list and indie tier developers.

4. Bungie hits rock bottom in 2025

It's already hitting rock bottom, and I predict it is possible Bungie could find itself in dire staights and goes the way the Concord devs went if they can't pull Destiny out of its death spiral before their hypothetical GaaS Marathon product appears....and if it does appear in 2025 (I don't think it will) I predict it will tank.

Okay, that's my gloom and doom list for 2025! I look forward to hopefully being proven wrong on all counts, but time will tell.