17 May 2024 10:05
Why in News?
The Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra
Modi, has approved a 5-point action plan against Pakistan following the
deadly terrorist attack in Baisaran valley (Pahalgam), Jammu and
Kashmir, which claimed the lives of 26 civilians.
• The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of banned Pakistan-
based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), reportedly claimed responsibility for the
attack.
Note: The TRF surfaced in 2020. It was declared a terrorist organisation by
the Ministry of Home Affairs in 2023 under the Unlawful Activities
(Prevention) Act, 1967 for its involvement in terror recruitment, infiltration,
and smuggling from Pakistan into J&K.
• TRF's rise followed two key developments: the decapitation of LeT's top
leadership in 2018 and the revocation of J&K’s special status in 2019.
What is the 5-Point Action Plan Announced by India After the
Pahalgam Terror Attack?
• Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty: India has suspended
the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) until Pakistan ceases its support
for cross-border terrorism.
• It reflects a shift in India’s strategic calculus, using hydrological
leverage as a pressure tool.
• Closure of the Attari-Wagah Border Check Post: India has shut down
the Integrated Check Post (ICP) at Attari, Punjab suspending all
movement of people and goods.
• Only individuals who have crossed over with valid documents will be
permitted to return by 1st May 2025.
• Cancellation of SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme for Pakistan: India
has revoked the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
(SAARC) Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) for Pakistani nationals.
• All SVES visas already issued are considered void.
• Expulsion of Pakistani Military Advisors: Pakistan’s Defence, Naval,
and Air advisors in New Delhi have been declared persona non
grata and must exit India. India will also withdraw its own advisors from
Islamabad.
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• Reduction of Diplomatic Personnel: India will reduce the staff strength
at its High Commission in Islamabad to 30, down from 55, by 1st May
2025.
• This marks a clear downgrade in diplomatic engagement, intended to
freeze bilateral dialogue at the official level.
How has Pakistan Responded to India’s Five-Point Action
Plan?
• Suspension of Bilateral Agreements: Pakistan declared it would
consider placing “all bilateral agreements” with India, including the 1972
Simla Agreement, in abeyance.
• Trade suspension: All forms of trade with India, including transit trade
via third countries, have been suspended.
• India-Pakistan trade had shown signs of recovery, reaching USD 1.2
billion in 2024, a 127% increase from 2023. Suspension reverses these
gains.
• Strong rejection of IWT Suspension: Pakistan condemned India's
suspension of the IWT, calling it unacceptable and warned that any
diversion of river waters under the treaty would be considered an "act of
war."
• Airspace Closure: In a move similar to the 2019 post-Pulwama
airspace closure, Pakistan has once again shut its skies to all Indian-
owned or operated aircraft, including military flights.
• This affects Indian flights to the Gulf, Europe, and the US, increasing
travel time, with higher fuel costs, and fare hikes.
• Closure of Wagah Border: Pakistan has sealed its side of the Wagah
border post as well.
• Diplomatic Downsizing: The strength of India's High Commission in
Islamabad will be reduced to 30 members, with the expulsion of Indian
defence officials.
• SAARC visa Cancellations: All SAARC visas for Indian nationals have
been cancelled, except for Sikh pilgrims, for whom the Kartarpur
Corridor will remain open.
What are the Potential Geopolitical Factors Behind Pakistan's
Pahalgam Attack?
• India’s Kashmir Policy: Pakistan views India's revocation of Article 370
in 2019 and Kashmir's integration as a challenge to its self-claimed
sovereignty due to its illegal occupation over Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
Pakistan's increasing marginalization and India's success in stabilizing
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• Pakistan's increasing marginalization and India's success in stabilizing
Kashmir may have pushed Pakistan to resort to violence to reassert its
position in the region.
• International Isolation: Pakistan’s traditional allies like the US, Gulf
states, and even China are distancing themselves due to Islamabad’s
declining reliability and returns.
• Additionally, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan's
strategic importance to the US has sharply declined, leaving it
diplomatically isolated.
• Economic Collapse: A crumbling economy, soaring inflation, and weak
state institutions have left Pakistan increasingly unstable.
• Rising Baloch insurgency and persistent terror activities along
Pakistan’s western front have made the country less appealing to foreign
investors, worsening its economic troubles and hindering prospects for
recovery.
• Global Geopolitical Messaging: The timing of the Pahalgam attack,
coinciding with PM Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia and the US Vice
President’s trip to India, suggests Pakistan is asserting its regional
power and signaling its continued influence in South Asia.
• Despite global condemnation, Pakistan may see international attention as
an opportunity to re-engage diplomatically amid its growing isolation.
What is the Significance of the Indus Waters Treaty?
• Indus Waters Treaty: The IWT, signed in 1960 in Karachi after nine
years of negotiations between India and Pakistan, was mediated by
the World Bank.
• The treaty allocates the "Eastern Rivers" of the Indus system (Ravi,
Beas, and Sutlej) to India for unrestricted use, while the "Western
Rivers" (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) are reserved for Pakistan,
effectively giving Pakistan access to about 80% of the total water.
• India is allowed limited non-consumptive uses of the Western Rivers,
such as for navigation, agriculture, and hydroelectricity, subject to design
and operational conditions under the treaty.
• IWT established a Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) to ensure
annual dialogue and cooperation, and laid out a three-tier dispute
resolution mechanism, including resolution at the PIC level, through
a Neutral Expert (appointed by the World Bank or jointly by the India and
Pakistan), or if needed, a Court of Arbitration.
• Actions Regarding IWT: In 2023, India issued its first notice under the
IWT, requesting modifications to the Treaty, focusing on
the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects.
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the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects.
• Despite these projects being classified as "run-of-the-river" and
intended to generate electricity without obstructing the natural river
flow, Pakistan raised concerns, claiming they violate the IWT’s
stipulations.
• India responded with another notice in 2024, seeking a review and
modification of the IWT.
• Article XII (3) of the IWT allows for modifications to the Treaty through a
duly ratified agreement between the two governments.
• India’s Suspension of the IWT: India’s suspension marks the first
suspension of the treaty since its inception, signaling a shift in water
diplomacy linked to cross-border terrorism.
Challenges and Implications of India’s Decision to Suspend
IWT
• Legal Constraints and Complexities
○ The IWT, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, lacks an explicit provision for
unilateral withdrawal.
○ Article XII (4) of the treaty asserts that it remains in force unless terminated
through a mutually ratified treaty between India and Pakistan.
○ This significantly constrains India's ability to legally abrogate the treaty without
bilateral consent.
○ While some Indian analysts suggest leveraging Articles 60 and 62 of the Vienna
Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT), which allow for treaty suspension in
cases of material breach or fundamental change of circumstances, these arguments
face legal ambiguity.
○ India is not a signatory to the VCLT, and Pakistan has signed but not ratified it.
○ Moreover, applying these provisions would be legally and diplomatically
complex, particularly in the absence of clear evidence or international consensus.
○ Pakistan, on the other hand, has signalled intent to challenge India’s
move through multiple international legal forums.
○ Minister of State for Law and Justice Aqeel Malik has indicated that Pakistan
may appeal to the World Bank, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, or even the UN
Security Council, alleging violations of international law, including the VCLT.
• Strategic and Environmental Ramifications
○ India's suspension of the treaty could have profound implications for the Indus
Basin.
○ Under the IWT, India is entitled to limited use of the western rivers, Indus,
Jhelum, and Chenab, primarily for non-consumptive purposes such as
hydroelectric power generation.
○ The suspension opens the door for India to exert greater control over water
flows, including withholding water during dry seasons and releasing it during
monsoons.
○ Such actions could precipitate artificial droughts or floods in Pakistan,
particularly affecting its agrarian economy.
○ Pakistan’s heavy reliance on these rivers for agriculture, drinking water, and
electricity makes it especially vulnerable.
○ Compounding this vulnerability are internal fissures, such as the longstanding
inter-provincial water disputes between Punjab and Sindh.
○ The recent controversy over the construction of six new canals, including the
Cholistan Canal, has already sparked unrest in Sindh, and further disruptions in
water flow from India could worsen domestic instability.
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water flow from India could worsen domestic instability.
Infrastructure Limitations and India’s Long-Term Strategy
• While India's intent to fully exploit its entitlements under the IWT is clear, practical
limitations exist.
• The country currently has a storage capacity of only about 1 million acre-feet (MAF),
against an allowable 3.60 MAF under the treaty.
• Similarly, of the permitted 1.34 million acres of irrigation potential, only 0.642 million
acres have been developed.
• India has made notable progress on the eastern rivers, Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi, with
over 90% of its 33 MAF allocation being utilised through major infrastructure like the
Bhakra, Pong, and Ranjit Sagar dams.
• However, on the western rivers, projects such as the Kishanganga, Rattle, and
Baglihar dams are primarily run-of-the-river systems, offering limited storage.
• Ambitious future projects, including the Kiru and Pakal Dul dams, aim to increase
this capacity, but geographic and bureaucratic challenges imply that a full realisation of
India's strategic objectives may take a decade or longer.
Geopolitical Consequences and Regional Diplomacy
• While India’s move may be seen as a strong political message, it carries substantial
diplomatic risks.
• The precedent set by suspending a bilateral treaty could prompt other neighbouring
countries to reconsider their water-sharing agreements with India.
• For instance, China, the upper riparian to several Indian rivers, could use this as
justification to withhold hydrological data or delay renewing Memorandums of
Understanding (MoUs) on rivers like the Sutlej and Brahmaputra.
• During the 2017 Doklam standoff, China withheld water data from India while
continuing to share it with Bangladesh, foreshadowing potential future actions.
• India’s relations with Bangladesh also stand at a critical juncture.
• The Ganga Water Treaty is due for renewal in 2026, and any aggressive water-
related decisions could complicate negotiations.
• Similarly, sentiments in Nepal and Sri Lanka may become more cautious, with calls
for more rigorous scrutiny of water and infrastructure agreements with New Delhi.
Conclusion
• India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is both a bold assertion of strategic
sovereignty and a high-stakes diplomatic gamble.
• While the action may resonate domestically as a tough response to terrorism, its legal
footing is uncertain, its implementation constrained by infrastructure, and its broader
geopolitical implications significant.
• As India moves forward, it must weigh the benefits of coercive diplomacy against the
costs of regional alienation and the erosion of trust in international treaty frameworks.
• In an interconnected and interdependent region, long-term water security may depend
less on unilateral action and more on cooperative, sustainable management of
shared resources.
• Article 62 of the Vienna Convention allows a country to withdraw from
or repudiate a treaty if there is a fundamental change in circumstances
that makes the continuation of the treaty untenable.
• Implications of IWT Suspension:
• India: Suspension of the IWT gives India greater flexibility in managing
the Indus river system.
• India can now carry out reservoir flushing on projects like Kishanganga
(Jhelum) without waiting for the peak monsoon period, as previously
mandated by the treaty. This will help in increasing the life of the
Kishenganga dam.
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Kishenganga dam.
• India can fast-track hydroelectric projects on western rivers, bypassing
design and operational restrictions, and halt Pakistani inspections at
ongoing projects like Kishenganga and Ratle (on Chenab).
• However, the suspension won’t immediately affect Pakistan’s water
supply, as India lacks the infrastructure to fully control or divert the
flow at this stage.
• Pakistan: The suspension of the IWT threatens Pakistan's water security,
as 80% of its cultivated land relies on these rivers.
• Disruption could impact food security, urban water supply, and power
generation, while also causing economic instability due to the Indus
system's contribution to 25% of Pakistan's GDP.
• India's ability to withhold river flow data further compounds Pakistan's
vulnerability, hindering flood preparedness and water resource
management.
• Pakistan may pursue arbitration, seek World Bank aid, and rally allies like
China to negotiate favorable terms with India, but economic constraints
may limit strong retaliation.
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Note: Reservoir flushing is a technique used to remove accumulated
sediment from reservoirs by releasing water through low-level outlets to
scour out the sediment and transport it downstream.
India’s Key Dams on the Indus System
• Kishanganga (Jhelum): Operational since 2018, diverts water from a key
tributary of the Mangla Dam.
• Ratle (Chenab): Under construction, may further reduce flows to
Pakistan's Punjab region.
• Shahpurkandi (Ravi): Redirects Ravi water to Indian channels, reducing
Pakistan's access.
• Ujh (Ravi): A planned dam that will decrease downstream water
availability to Pakistan.
What Should Be India’s Long-Term Strategy Toward Pakistan?
• Strengthening Deterrence: India must maintain a strong military
presence along the border, modernizing its forces with High Tech Border
Surveillance System, and smart fencing.
• A credible deterrent, including robust border security, can prevent
Pakistan from escalating tensions, particularly over Kashmir or potential
military incursions
• Utilizing UN Security Council: India should persist in highlighting
Pakistan’s support for terrorist groups at the UN Security
Council, emphasizing global condemnation.
• India should leverage Article 51 of the UN Charter, which calls for
collective action against terrorism, to mobilize global support for greater
sanctions on Pakistan.
• Additionally, India should advocate for Pakistan’s inclusion in
the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklist for its involvement in
terror financing, to pressure Pakistan into compliance.
• Internal Resilience and Social Cohesion: India must adopt a
proactive counter-radicalization strategy, focusing on vulnerable border
regions.
• This involves not just security measures, but also fostering unity through
public awareness campaigns that emphasize peace, pluralism, and
national cohesion.
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