Pakistan-India Relations

Question Dimensions:

1- Indus Water Treaty

2- Kashmir Issue
3- Phalgam Crises

Indus Water Treaty:

History:

Example of transboundary water management. Water distribution between Pakistan and India? This
water dispute began in 1948 when India diverted Pakistan’s water for their own agriculture. India did
diverge Ravi and Sutlej. The British did not resolve these issues during independence. As a result, the
World Bank intervened. Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and former Pakistani President Ayub Khan
signed the IWT in September 1960. Survived many wars. It remained uncontroversial until India
announced plans to build the Baglihar Hydropower Project in Indian-administered Kashmir, on the
Chenab.

(Dawn)

Main provisions of this treaty:

1- Rivers were divided. The three Easter rivers were given to India. They are Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
India can use them for whatever reasons. India has sovereign right over those three rivers. If
India leaves behind this water, it is not a violation. The rest of three Western rivers given to
Pakistan are: Indus; Jhelum, and Chenab (IJC). Account for 80 percent of water flows. India has
the rights to use Western rivers for non-consumptive purposes. Not store it. India has some
upstream infrastructure on these rivers, including the Baglihar and Kishanganga dams, but none
of it is designed to hold back these kinds of volumes.
2- India has the right to construct hydropower projects (generating electricity from water) on
Western rivers given to Pakistan. These rivers flow from the Indian occupied Kashmir. If India
does this, it will construct in its occupied Kashmir. Two types of Hydropower Projects: It takes
place in two ways: One, by means of dams. Second, run of river of projects (limited capacity to
provide electricity. That means India cannot construct dams, just generate electricity from the
run of river projects. Pakistan’s rivers can be used by India for power generation and not other
purposes. Generating electricity does not consume water. India can use it but does not consume
it.
3- Before start of construction of hydropower projects, India will have to inform Pakistan at least 90
days before. It is not permission but inform. If India violates this treaty, India can make dams or
consume it and for hydropower projects.
4- This treaty provides a conflict resolution method. What does it say about conflict, now
suspension under the Article 9 of Treaty? By means of Tiered process:
1. Bilateral Setting: Permanent Commission on Indus Waters. Both States: This shall consist of
Indian Indus Water Commission and Pakistan Indus Water Commission. This will meet every
year and share information. If it does not resolve, then second step will be taken. If not
solved, then go to the second step.
 2. Both states should approach neutral experts from any country around the world. His job is to
take technical action. He will give his own recommendation, which is not binding.
3. Both states or a single state can approach the World Bank? They will tell the World Bank to
take two steps: One, to appoint one neutral expert (if the issue is technical in nature, it will
be asked (not-binding decision). Two, Court of Arbitration (if decision in legal in nature, it will
be asked. Its decision is binding). Choosing any option of the two is the prerogative the two
states. If clash occurs over their two varied options, this treaty does not provide an option
for this clash, and the role of the World Bank is facilitator, not decision maker. This treaty
does not provide any provision if clash occurs.
This treaty states if there occurs clash between this treaty and international law, the
international law will prevail. The international law states 20 percent of consumption is
allowed for India, but not allowed by the Treaty. India surrendered this right to Pakistan.
India began to materialize to utilize this right from 2016 onwards. Blood and water cannot go
together (Modi)
No expiry date of the treaty not any unilateral suspension or cannot by modified by a single
party under Article 12.

Why India suspended it?

What is India’s Official Perspective?
1- India has asked Pakistan multiple times to amend this treaty but Pakistan paid a lip
service to it. 15th January, 2023 (Pakistan responded). Then, India sent another letter in
August 2024.
2- Second official Perspective? This treaty is not in isolation to broader frameworks of
cooperation between states. When there is no good faith between the two parties, this
treaty does not survive.
Scholarly Perspective
3- Implementing what Modi call that blood and water cannot flow together in 2016. India reacted
in response to militancy in Kashmir.
4- Kashangaga and Ratle project issues: Pakistan approach to the World Bank asking to appoint
Court of Arbitration. India asked for neutral expert. As a result, the WB could not take decision
for almost six years asking both countries to take decisions themselves. India boycotted its
proceedings.
5- Weaponization of Water: India has used water flows as a weapon against Pakistan. Just to harm
Pakistan.
6- BJP Narrative:
7- Bargaining chip in the future for negotiations.
8- Changing needs: from irrigation and drinking water to hydropower
Strafasia
What does India want?
To renegotiate its terms
Increased threats of climate change and population stress
 It uses just 20 percent water, which it sees the least given the changing conditions.

Doest it applicable? Can it divert water?

1- Lack of extensive storage infrastructure and the extensive canals on the part of India
"The infrastructure India has are mostly run-of-the-river hydropower plants that do not need
massive storage," said Himanshu Thakkar, a regional water resources expert. This would take
years to build dams. With political and financial challenges await ahead. An act of war if India
does (Pakistan).
2- hydrological constraints to hold back water (Dawn)
3- Experts say India can now modify existing infrastructure or build new ones to hold back or divert
more water.

Implications of its suspensions?

1- Pakistan-Specific:
1. Pakistan water security is being threatened.
2. Disrupting Pakistan’s irrigation system on which farmer depends. For example, season delay
of crops causes economic crises.
3. Consequences for coastal livelihoods and fisheries.
4. Agriculture: Need 80 percent of water from Indus basine’s water
5. In the absence of hydrological data sharing, there would be no forecasting of floods in
Pakistan. Just arrangements on the side of Pakistan as India has historically shared data.
The country can now stop sharing flood data with Pakistan. Pradeep Kumar Saxena, India's
former IWT commissioner told the Press Trust of India)
India would share 40 percent data (Shiraz Memon, Pakistan's former additional
commissioner of the Indus Waters Treaty, told BBC Urdu.)
6. Food insecurity and agriculture. 82 percent of water flow from India
7. Testing Pakistan’s nuclear policy: Water blockade if done, Pakistan has the right to use
nuclear weapons.
8. Impacting our agro-industry (textile industries)
9. Energy crises ((Tarbela, Mangla, and other reservoirs use it)—leads to lack of power capacity.
10. Impacting power-generation in Pakistan. A third of hydropower depends on water
11. Impacting water-storage capacity.
12. Climate Change get affected with water.
13. Inter-provincial conflict on water-sharing is likely to increase between Sind and Punjab if the
states was forced to make hard choices.
14. India to use water as weapon against the downstream country. This is called “water bomb”
suddenly leaving water to cause destruction without warning.
15. During the dry season, it will feel its impacts.
"A more pressing concern is what happens in the dry season - when the flows across the
basin are lower, storage matters more, and timing becomes more critical," Hassan F Khan,
assistant professor of Urban Environmental Policy and Environmental Studies at Tufts
University, wrote in the Dawn newspaper.
China-Specific:
 India is itself a downstream riparian on the Brahmaputra and other rivers that originate in
China. By suspending the treaty and acting unilaterally, it sets a precedent that could one
day be used against it.

Note: Pakistan could be the new language (conflicts over water, such as the case of
Bangladesh on the basis of language)

Implications for India:

Impacting India’s international credibility

Giving precedent to China to do the same

Options for Pakistan: Way Forward

1. External Options:
1. Approaching the World Bank. Pakistan approached the World Bank by signing an official
letter to India asking it to clarify on what basis you suspend it.
2. Approaching the international legal forums, such as the UN and International Court of
Justice
3. Approaching international pollical forums. Powerful states. Pakistan narrative would be that
Pakistan is not supporting terrorism and is the victim of it. Second, the violation of this treaty
invites nuclear threat.
4. Pakistan can approach Indian neighbors having water issues with India. This includes China,
Bangladesh, Nepal and others. Joint action of these countries.
5. Bilateral talks with India on water issue.
Note: Pakistan will get reduced water supply since India does not agree on 20 percent water
given to it. 80 percent of water was given by Nehru. Pakistan has no logical to say why India
gets less water. However, Pakistan needs to take water-conservation steps in the future.
Storing water and modifying dams and other effective steps.
2. Internal Factors:

Indian Side:

Pakistan’s objection on India's hydropower and water infrastructure projects threatening Pakistan water
security.

Future of the treaty

Renogtiation

Return to the “spirit” in which it was originally negotiated

India may leverage its geopolitical importance to assert it

Modhi is so critical to Nehru. He rejected most of its policies.

India never offers mediation nor does it believe on it.