The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960 after nine years of negotiations between India
and Pakistan with the help of the World Bank, which is also a signatory. The Treaty is seen
as one of the most successful international treaties, it has survived frequent tensions,
including conflict, and has provided a framework for irrigation and hydropower
development for more than half a century.
Former U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower described it as "one bright spot ... in a very
depressing world picture that we see so often."
The Treaty allocates the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan and the
Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India. At the same time, the Treaty allows each country
certain uses on the rivers allocated to the other.
India could use Western rivers for non-consumptive uses like hydroelectric power,
navigation, and irrigation (under strict limits).
Dispute resolution mechanisms involving Permanent Indus Commission, Neutral Expert,
and eventually the Court of Arbitration.
Figure 1 Pak India Disputes Over Water
April 22, 2025: The Pahalgam Incident
A deadly militant attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, resulted in 26 fatalities,
primarily Hindu tourists. India attributed the attack to Pakistan-based militants, leading to
heightened tensions.
India's Response
• Suspension of IWT: India suspended its participation in the IWT, marking the first
such action since the treaty's inception.
• Diplomatic Measures: India expelled Pakistani military advisers, closed the Wagah-
Attari border, and revoked SAARC visa exemptions for Pakistani nationals.
1. Impact on Pakistan
a. Water Security and Agricultural Reliance
• Pakistan receives about 80% of its water from the three western rivers allotted under the
IWT: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
• Agriculture accounts for about 24% of Pakistan’s GDP and employs ~38% of the
labor force (Pakistan Economic Survey, 2023).
• Quote:
“The Indus system is Pakistan’s lifeline. Without it, there is no Pakistan.” —
Ayesha Siddiqi, Water Security Analyst
b. Hydrological Dependency
• Pakistan is the lower riparian and hence vulnerable to Indian infrastructure projects.
• Delays or manipulations in water flow (e.g., during sowing seasons) can significantly
affect crop yields.
c. Perception of Strategic Vulnerability
• Pakistan sees India's upstream projects as attempts to “choke Pakistan’s water
economy.”
• IMF 2023: Pakistan ranks among the top 3 water-stressed countries, with per capita
water availability at 908 m³ (below the water scarcity threshold of 1,000 m³).
d. Diplomatic and Legal Frictions
• Legal battle over the Kishanganga (330 MW) and Ratle (850 MW) dams.
• In 2023, Pakistan appealed to the Permanent Court of Arbitration, accusing India of
violating IWT’s dispute resolution clauses.
e. Delayed Infrastructure Development
• Fear of Indian retaliation has led to underinvestment in Pakistan’s water storage and
irrigation modernization.
Impacts on Pakistan
1. Agricultural Devastation
o The Indus River system is the backbone of Pakistan's agriculture, supporting
approximately 80% of its irrigated land. Any disruption in water flow can
severely impact crop yields, leading to food insecurity.
2. Hydropower Shortfalls
o Pakistan relies on the Indus system for about 60% of its hydropower generation.
Reduced water flow can lead to energy shortages, affecting both households and
industries.
3. Increased Flood Risks
o Uncoordinated release of water from upstream dams, such as the Uri Dam,
without prior notification, can lead to sudden flooding in downstream areas,
causing property damage and loss of life.
4. Economic Strain
o The agricultural and energy sectors are critical to Pakistan's economy. Disruptions
in these sectors can lead to economic downturns, increased unemployment, and
inflation.
5. Public Health Concerns
o Water scarcity can compromise sanitation and access to clean drinking water,
leading to the spread of waterborne diseases.
6. Social Unrest
o Water shortages and economic hardships can lead to public dissatisfaction,
protests, and potential civil unrest, especially in rural areas dependent on
agriculture.
7. Diplomatic Isolation
o The suspension of the IWT may strain Pakistan's diplomatic relations, limiting its
ability to garner international support in other areas of concern.
8. Legal Challenges
o Pakistan may seek legal recourse through international bodies, such as the
International Court of Justice, to contest the suspension, leading to prolonged
legal battles.
9. Environmental Degradation
o Altered water flows can impact ecosystems, leading to loss of biodiversity and
degradation of wetlands and fisheries.
10. National Security Threats
o Resource scarcity can exacerbate existing tensions and potentially lead to internal
conflicts or increased vulnerability to extremist narratives.
Impacts on India
1. International Repercussions
o Unilateral suspension of a long-standing treaty may be viewed unfavorably by the
international community, affecting India's global image and diplomatic relations.
2. Legal Obligations
o India may face legal challenges in international courts, questioning the legality of
suspending a treaty without mutual consent.
3. Regional Instability
o The suspension could escalate tensions with Pakistan, increasing the risk of
military confrontations and destabilizing the region.
4. Economic Costs
o Potential retaliatory measures by Pakistan, such as trade restrictions, can impact
Indian businesses and the economy.
5. Security Concerns
o Heightened tensions may require increased military deployment along the border,
diverting resources from other critical areas.
6. Environmental Impact
o Alterations in river flows can affect downstream ecosystems within India, leading
to environmental challenges.
7. Internal Displacement
o Changes in water management may necessitate the relocation of communities,
leading to social and economic challenges.
8. Infrastructure Strain
o Managing altered water flows may require significant investment in
infrastructure, such as dams and canals, straining public finances.
9. Public Opinion
o Domestic public opinion may be divided on the suspension, leading to political
debates and potential unrest.
10. Precedent for Other Treaties
o Unilateral suspension may set a precedent, affecting India's other international
agreements and its reputation as a reliable partner.
Regional Implications
1. Water Security Concerns
o Neighboring countries may become apprehensive about their own water-sharing
agreements, leading to regional tensions.
2. Economic Disruptions
o Regional trade and cooperation initiatives may suffer due to increased hostilities
between India and Pakistan.
3. Migration Pressures
o Environmental degradation and economic hardships may lead to increased
migration, straining resources in neighboring countries.
4. Terrorism and Extremism
o Instability may create a fertile ground for extremist groups to exploit grievances,
posing security threats across the region.
5. Climate Change Challenges
o Disruptions in water management can exacerbate the effects of climate change,
such as droughts and floods, affecting the entire region.
6. Diplomatic Alignments
o Countries may be forced to take sides, altering regional alliances and affecting
broader geopolitical dynamics.
7. Humanitarian Crises
o Potential conflicts and environmental disasters can lead to humanitarian crises,
requiring international intervention.
8. Impact on SAARC
o The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) may become
further ineffective due to increased bilateral tensions.
9. Economic Investment Deterrence
o Regional instability may deter foreign investment, affecting economic growth
prospects.
10. Cultural and People-to-People Exchanges
o Suspension of cross-border interactions can erode cultural ties and mutual
understanding among South Asian populations.
Resumption of Bilateral Dialogue
• Reinstate IWT dialogue mechanisms such as the Permanent Indus Commission
(PIC).
• Hold track-II diplomacy and backchannel negotiations.
• UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently urged both sides to “resolve their
differences peacefully and through existing treaty mechanisms” (April 2025, UN Press
Briefing).
2. Mediation by Neutral Third Parties
• Engage neutral mediators like the World Bank, which originally brokered the treaty.
• Consider third-party arbitration under international water laws, especially Article IX of
IWT which permits a neutral Expert or Court of Arbitration.
3. Establishment of Joint Water Management Bodies
• Set up joint flood management and early warning systems.
• Conduct joint hydrological studies to assess river basin stress and plan future usage.
4. Reaffirmation of Commitment to IWT
• Public and official statements by both sides reaffirming commitment to the core
principles of the IWT.
• Reference: “India remains committed to the fair and responsible use of Indus waters” —
Indian Ministry of External Affairs, Statement (April 2025).
5. Use of Regional Platforms like SAARC
• Revive SAARC’s Environment and Water Resources Division to promote regional
cooperation.
• Develop a South Asian Water Charter modeled after the IWT for all transboundary
rivers.
6. Technical Modernization of Treaty Framework
• Upgrade treaty provisions to include:
o Climate change adaptation
o Real-time data sharing via satellite
o Water conservation technologies
• Experts from the International Water Law Institute suggest that treaties must evolve to
incorporate climate resilience and modern hydrology.
7. Public Awareness and Media Responsibility
• Avoid inflammatory media rhetoric.
• Promote media-based peace initiatives focusing on cooperation in water management.
8. Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs)
• India and Pakistan could initiate:
o Joint disaster response exercises
o Cross-border visits to dam sites
o University exchange programs in hydrology and environmental sciences
9. Legal and Institutional Reforms
• Both countries can codify dispute resolution mechanisms into their domestic laws to
avoid politicizing treaty issues.
• Strengthen institutional capacity within their water and foreign affairs ministries for
treaty implementation.
10. Involvement of International Environmental Agencies
• Collaborate with the UN Environment Programme, Asian Development Bank, and
World Water Council for technical support and funding to rebuild trust.
