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Retail Intelligence: Predictive Behavioral Segmentation & Consumer Insights

An end-to-end data science project analyzing retail transaction data, segmenting customer cohorts using RFM analysis and K-Means clustering, and predicting high-value "Whale" customers to optimize targeted marketing spend and drive customer lifetime value (CLV).


📌 Executive Summary & Consumer Insights

  • Data Processing & Integrity: Cleaned 500,000+ transaction records and filtered return credits (InvoiceNo starting with 'C') to ensure net-positive revenue integrity.
  • Behavioral Phenotyping: Categorized the customer base into 3 distinct behavioral personas (Champions/Whales, Active Mid-Tier, and At-Risk) using RFM (Recency, Frequency, Monetary) metrics and K-Means Clustering.
  • Actionable Marketing Strategy: Translated raw behavioral patterns into tailored strategy—from high-touch concierge retention for VIPs to surgical win-back campaigns for lapsed users.
  • Predictive Analytics: Built a leak-free classification pipeline using Logistic Regression, prioritizing 72% Recall to reliably identify high-value ($1,000+ spend) customers before churn.

📊 Consumer Segments Identified

Persona Behavioral Profile Recency (Avg) Spend (Avg) Marketing & Insights Strategy
Cluster 2 Champions / "Whales" ~6 Days $85,904 VIP Concierge Retention & Exclusive Perks
Cluster 0 Active Mid-Tier ~41 Days $1,855 Upsell & cross-sell to cross $1,000 spend
Cluster 1 At-Risk / Lapsed ~247 Days $631 Win-back campaigns with target incentives

📁 Repository Documents


👤 Author

Anthony A. Inzinna
M.S. Data Scientist | Behavioral Intelligence

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Predictive behavioral customer segmentation using RFM analysis, K-Means clustering, and Logistic Regression.

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