Predict

A CLI toolkit for exploring Polymarket and managing predictions.

• predict.py - Main CLI for discovering markets, reviewing and managing prediction history.
• analyse.py - Analytics tool for summarizing active markets, categories and computing metrics.

• Calculate allocations using confidence weighted Kelly criterion
• Filter markets by prediction edge, time and odds
• Saves predictions locally and compare Brier scores

Install Python and dependencies:

pip install -r requirements.txt

Run the CLI

python predict.py

• HISTORY_FILE = "prediction_history.json"
  • Local file used to store prediction history, skipped markets, and resolved outcomes.
• BANKROLL = 42.00
  • The total capital base used for allocation calculations.
• GAMMA_API = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com"
  • Polymarket Gamma API base URL used for data fetches.
• MIN_EDGE = 0.01
  • Requires at least a 1% estimated edge before considering a trade.
• MAX_DAYS = 420
  • Excludes markets that resolve beyond 420 days to avoid overly long capital lock-up.
• MIN_DAYS = 0
  • Excludes markets resolving within fewer than 0 days (currently no minimum time horizon).
• EXTREME_ODDS = 0.01
  • Filters out extreme tail markets priced below 1% or above 99%.

• Sync with Polymarket Portfolio