"Economics is the science of human preferences and constraints — situated in time, shaped by history, and oriented toward an open future."

My work is grounded in the conviction that economic phenomena are irreducibly temporal. Agents do not choose outside of time — they are thrown into historical contexts, act in a present laden with institutional inertia, and project themselves toward uncertain futures. This ontological stance connects the philosophy of time (Heidegger's Zeitlichkeit, post-Keynesian radical uncertainty, Shackle's non-ergodic futures) to the technical apparatus of modern time-series and panel econometrics.

The error-correction term in an ARDL model is not merely a statistical artefact — it is the econometric trace of an economy's being-toward-equilibrium: the finite speed at which thrownness resolves into authentic long-run trajectory. The asymmetric response in NARDL captures what Heidegger would call the asymmetry of temporal ecstases: positive shocks open new possibilities; negative shocks sediment into the having-been of the system and resist correction.

• CO₂ Dynamics — asymmetric (NARDL) and distributional (QARDL) emission elasticities; Türkiye & Eurasian economies
• Environmental Kuznets Curve — nonlinear income-environment dynamics in heterogeneous panels
• Renewable Energy Transitions — adoption elasticities, emission-reducing thresholds, quantile heterogeneity
• Climate-Agriculture Nexus — climate shocks, agricultural TFP, food security in the Global South

• Currency Misalignment & Current Account — persistence channel, TWFE, local projection, Marshall-Lerner in EMs
• Sudden Stops & Capital Flows — balance-of-payments crises, contagion, Eurasian panel evidence
• Chronic Inflation — Mundell-Fleming trilemma, monetary institutions, exchange rate pass-through

• Geoeconomics — BRI/AIIB, EAEU, chokepoints, financial fragmentation (Clayton et al. 2026; Strange 1988)
• Sovereign Debt Architecture — debt trap narratives, capital account openness, fiscal-monetary coordination
• Institutional Isomorphism — multilateral development banks, norm diffusion, coercive convergence

• Temporal Ontology in Economics — Heidegger's Zeitlichkeit as a framework for persistence, adjustment, and equilibrium
• Non-ergodic Uncertainty — Keynes–Shackle–Davidson tradition; the open future as an ontological, not merely epistemic, condition
• Thrownness & Path Dependence — institutional lock-in, historical initial conditions, country heterogeneity as Geworfenheit
• Authentic Dynamics vs Inauthentic Drift — long-run cointegrating equilibrium as the "ownmost" trajectory; short-run deviation as drift in das Man
• Being-toward-Equilibrium — error-correction as the econometric structure of finitude: bounded adjustment, irreversible time

R: plm · urca · vars · dynlm · lmtest · sandwich · ggplot2 · fixest · strucchange

Python (Roudane ecosystem): nardl · qardl · hybridnonlinur · wavenardl · statsmodels · linearmodels

GAUSS: Karul-Nazlıoğlu (2024) PANIC-VAR · Fourier-LM panel unit root · tspdlib

HEIDEGGER'S ZEITLICHKEIT          ECONOMETRIC COUNTERPART
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Gewesenheit  (having-been)    ←→  Persistence / lagged ECT / Unit root
Gegenwart    (present-now)    ←→  Short-run shock / Contemporaneous effect
Zukunft      (coming-toward)  ←→  Long-run equilibrium / Cointegrating vector

Geworfenheit (thrownness)     ←→  Country fixed effects / Path dependence
Authentic trajectory          ←→  Cointegrating equilibrium
Inauthentic drift (das Man)   ←→  Short-run deviation / Transitory shock
Sein-zum-Tode                 ←→  Error-correction: finite, irreversible adjustment
Unheimlichkeit (uncanny)      ←→  Structural break / Regime shift / Non-ergodic shock

Shackle's crucial decision    ←→  Irreversible shock / Asymmetric NARDL response
Keynes' animal spirits        ←→  Resoluteness (Entschlossenheit) under uncertainty
Davidson's non-ergodicity     ←→  Open future: past distributions ≠ future distributions

academic_research_hub/
├── 01-literature/          # Zotero — 5,900+ refs, 400+ collections
├── 02-theory/              # Temporal ontology, geoeconomics, institutional frameworks
├── 03-raw-data/            # WDI, BIS, CEPII, IEA, IRENA, FAOSTAT, EDGAR
├── 04-processed-data/      # Cleaned panels, full audit trail
├── 05-econometric-models/  # R / Stata / Python / GAUSS pipelines
├── 06-results/             # Estimation outputs, Webb bootstrap CI tables
├── 07-manuscripts/         # Quarto → DOCX/PDF submission packages
└── 14-journal-submissions/ # Submission history, reviewer responses