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I used Bayesian Inference to examine a potential Trump vs. Biden general election battle with polls from Decemeber 2019. The model simplified reality, treating every state as a winner-take-all binary outcome, overlooking partial systems like Maine and Nebraska, and ignoring any third party candidates. Data came from two sources. For the larger data set, I looked at old presidential election data for each state from https://electionlab.mit.edu/data and compared the number of votes each historic candidate received. If the state had more votes for the Democrat than it did for the Republican, a success would be recorded. Otherwise, a failure would be recorded. Likewise, for the smaller data set, I looked at current polls from https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ and once again compared totals. The only polls considered were Biden vs. Trump, no other potential democratic nominee’s polls influenced the model.

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