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Ben Dubose: Let’s address the elephant in the room with Kevin Durant. They expect the Suns to reach out to them for the obvious reason they have the picks and on paper there’s a fit, but it’s doubtful. No one will rule it out, but it’s doubtful that the value will be in alignment in terms of what the Suns are looking for, what makes sense for them, and what the Rockets are willing to give up, both in terms of younger players or pick assets and also the matching salaries to get anywhere near KD’s 50-something million dollar salary for next year. They’ll kick the tires. they’ll do their due diligence but they really believe in this core and the timeline that they’re on. Obviously KD is going to be 37 next year and so that sort of goes in the same bucket in that sure, it sounds good on paper, they’ll do their due diligence, if the price is low enough, maybe you can’t rule it out. But they’re not going to bid aggressively when the floor is as high as it already is.
The strong expectation is that VanVleet will remain with Houston after the strong leadership he provided to a team that unexpectedly won 52 games and snagged the No. 2 seed in the West, but pushing the option back to the brink of free agency does leave open the possibility that the Rockets could include VanVleet’s monster 2025-26 salary in a significant trade if such a deal materialized around the draft. The more likely scenario is that the Rockets decline the option and re-sign VanVleet to a new multiyear deal at a lower annual salary to create some useful wiggle room in relation to the league’s luxury tax aprons.
The sense here is that while the Heat might again pursue Phoenix’s Kevin Durant, Miami isn’t going to offer all of its first-round inventory for a 36-year-old with one year left on his contract. But Houston’s interest in Durant has been overstated, according to reports. Minnesota could become a top contender for Durant if the Wolves don’t win a championship.
In an average NBA season, slightly more than half the playoff games will be in the first round (there are 15 total series, and we’re already done with eight of them), so it’s a good time to examine the playoff trend line. We have a few second-round games thrown in for good measure. (All data is entering Wednesday’s games.) Here’s the thing: I can’t really find anything in the numbers to suggest that these playoffs have been any more physical than the last two. Fouls and free throws have both increased from the regular season. Those alone are a bad indicator, as they can be skewed by late-game take fouls (hello, Thunder fans) and hack-a strategies (take a bow, Mitchell Robinson and Steven Adams), both of which are historically more common in the playoffs.
Getting to play the do-or-die game at home used to be a ballast for higher seeds. They won 79.1 percent of Game 7s over the league’s first 73 seasons. Home teams are just 5-10 in a Game 7 since 2021. When the Warriors won in Houston Sunday, it could hardly have been a surprise. Certainly, not to Warriors head coach Steve Kerr. His evolution on the value of home-court advantage mirrors the reality of the league. In 2018, as the Warriors were on their way to a third title in four years, Kerr said that obtaining home-court advantage for the playoffs was his top goal. Last month, he sloughed off its value. “I don’t know that it’s quite as important,” Kerr said. “I think the 3-point shooting is such a variable. It feels like in the old days, it was much more of a grind-out, two-point game. It just didn’t feel like the opponent had as much of a chance to suddenly get hot and take over the momentum of the game.”
ESPN/ABC averaged 4.46 million viewers for games, up 14% from the first round last season (3.91 million). TNT/truTV averaged 3.35 million viewers, up 3% from 3.22 million. Sunday night’s Warriors-Rockets Game 7 on TNT/truTV (6.6 million) was the NBA’s best first-round Game 7 on cable TV since Bulls-Celtics 16 years ago (also on TNT in 2009).