The next war: Jeb Bush, the GOP, and the non-Hispanic white vote in South Florida ... by gimleteye

In 1996 Art Teele, an African American county commissioner, ran for county mayor hoping to assemble the same majority in demographic proportions like those that propelled Carlos Gimenez to the county mayor seat over Julio Robaina this week. The theory was, that if Teele could pull moderate support from Hispanics, overwhelming support from African Americans, and a majority of non-Hispanics whites that he could trump Alex Penelas. Teele, like Robaina, was dogged by allegations of shady business practices.

1996 was before the dot.com boom, before the Jeb Bush terms, and housing boom and bust. The demographics (Hispanic, African American, and non-Hispanic White) have shifted but they haven't fundamentally changed. (The subtleties are emphasized in the shift among Hispanic voters.)

The determinant factor in 1996 was money piled in from the Latin Builders Association members. The top players were Republican but they also counted on Penelas (and President Clinton) to obtain the Homestead Air Force Base for a privatized commercial airport. They plowed, then, nearly two million dollars into Penelas' campaign and he handily defeated Teele, a Republican.

According to The Miami Herald and an Bendixen & Amandi poll, non-Hispanics whites voted for Gimenez over Robaina by a 3-1 majority. It was a huge advantage in a low turnout election. Tellingly, Jeb Bush backed the loser, Robaina, who was closest to his own support base among the builders and developers who crashed the economy in South Florida.

It is true that we tend to fight the last war, in this one. It is also true that politicians tend to fight the last campaign. There will be raised eyebrows about this week's election results by the political class, in view of the upcoming 2012 election. The performance of the white non-Hispanic vote for Gimenez shows that a strong segment of voters is highly disturbed by insider dealing and corruption that is usually taken for granted. But what of the weak performance of non-Hispanic whites relative to Jeb's endorsement?

While the Robaina loss may be a relatively minor point for the former governor, Bush is cultivating a role as a GOP sage. Jeb Bush must have regretted his early support of Robaina. (Perhaps the point is that corrupt business or unethical business conduct are poison with this electorate, unless the candidate has millions of your own money to plow into a campaign.) Miami is Bush's base, and he shouldn't be backing a loser here. Then there is another Miamian Bush is tied to -- US Senator Marco Rubio-- being cultivated for a national campaign carefully as a hot-house rose.

The point is: voters are paying attention is ways they hadn't, when the economy was flush and everyone was using their homes as personal ATM's. These are tea leaves from a low-turnout election. Still they point in a direction for candidates ambitious enough to set a new course for 2012.

Miami Dade Mayoral Election Results. By Geniusofdespair

Carlos Gimenez has 62,125 votes (51.7%) to Julio Robaina's 58,005 (48.29%). That is early voting combined with absentee ballots. No election day data is included. Results are still coming in.

Robaina conceded!!!

FINAL RESULTS:
Carlos Gimenez - 51.1% 101,865 votes
Julio Robaina - 48.9% 97,490 votes
16.36% Voter Turnout

Why Are All These PAC's Helping Julio Robaina's Absentee Ballot Collection? By Geniusofdespair

This is the PAC that is helping to pay for Sasha Tirador ($49,000), who is doing absentee ballot collection for Julio Robaina. The Miami Herald mentions her in an article today (Robaina interests paid $161,287 to G&R Strategies, her company) focusing on absentee ballots. Another PAC, Citizens for Clarity gave her company over $100,000.

It is very hard digging up what is going on. They say the contribution was "in kind" from Floridians for Conservative Values, but the money collected just happens to be about the same amount. You try and make sense out of why all these groups from out of town are helping Julio Robaina. (I previously reported on Dade County Government Citizens to Reclaim Miami)

Get your friends to vote people. Don't let the rest of the State manipulate our election!

Will Miami's bond rating meltdown? Will the Latin Builders Association make up the difference? by gimleteye

Despite a freeze on hiring, Miami hires 200 employees. Despite a policy requiring commission approval of severance packages, severance packages get paid without approvals. Suddenly, a $54 million shortfall in the 2012 budget appears. So who should save us from Wall Street lowering the boom on Miami, because that is certainly what should happen and should have happened long ago, what with a CFO who, testifying before commissioners on the Marlins' stadium deal, sounded like a child explaining why a conch shell, held to the ear, makes the noise of waves. Investors Beware! should be posted on billboards on the interstate and leaving airports (and the side of the Miami Herald?)

There is a solution. The members of the Latin Builders Association can dip into their net worth to make up the difference. "Make Florida, whole" could be the motto of the wrecking crew that subdivided the state into platted subdivisions in wetlands and farmlands from Florida City to the state line. The Latin Builders Association that put its shoulder to the wheel of "what the market wants", to knock down environmental rules and regulations and kill off growth management because "construction and development has been flattened by too much regulation".

Then there is the LBA's political hit job on mayoral candidate Carlos Gimenez. Despite years of careful cultivation of a warm relationship with the builders, Gimenez was blind-sided when the group pulled a classic bait-and-switch by quickly endorsing Hialeah mayor Julio Robaina. All those hours on the county commission dais, with Gimenez never straying too far from the LBA reservation, came to naught. When Gimenez recently cancelled a number of remaining debates-- including one supported by the LBA-- the builders squealed like Nochebuena lechon at Cabrera's.

The Latin Builders Association oinking might remind voters that just as the recall of former county mayor Alvarez turned out to be a referendum on the stinky Marlins' stadium deal, the election of the next county mayor could be a public referendum on the Latin Builders Association itself. It is certainly way-past time for the public to know the names and faces of the political insiders and campaign contributors who helped push the local economy off the cliff. That's why the Latin Builders Association could redeem itself by dipping into its pockets and paying off Miami and the county's debt. It will help bond ratings and it will also prove that growth pays its own way.

My Paparazzi Moment at Mo's Robaina Event. By Geniusofdespair

Apparently the open house-free breakfast yesterday was actually a closed private affair in a back room at Mo's Bagels but I was in the mood for some galuptzi so I went anyway and sat in the main restaurant just to watch (and photograph of course).

Pictured below: Bay Harbor Islands Councilman J.W. Leonard, Julio, Laurie Lichtman, and Dan Wolf, Julio's body man.

Julio and staunch Democrat Joe Geller.

This picture below is particularly funny. We overheard Julio say to his handlers "I am going to get everyone in the restaurant to vote for me!" He walked over to 4 men sitting at a table next to us and said: "I am Julio Robaina running for Mayor, vote for me, I won't let you down, I won't let you down!" He turned and walked back into the private room after that one table, I guess he gave up on turning the whole restaurant. After he left a man at the table he visited said: "He might not let me down but he will fuck-up the whole county."

Looks like there is no love lost between CBS I-Team reporter Jim DeFede and Julio Robaina. Look at Julio's face.

There was plenty of love going around from Julio Robaina to Bay Harbor Islands Councilman Jordan W. Leonard.

I peeked in the room and Joe Celestin, the former North Miami Mayor, was speaking. That didn't impress anyone from Aventura to be sure.

Best Quote On The Mayoral Election in the Miami Herald Today. By Geniusofdespair

...The negative campaigns of our leaders prove that we are dealing with political swashbucklers who are champions of word-mongering. Daniel Shoer Roth

Political swashbucklers...so polite yet infused with the image of swords lashing out words in a duel to the death.

Another reason to vote for Carlos Gimenez:

He voted for Alex Sink for Governor and Julio Robaina supported Rick Scott.

This is NOT okay Julio Robaina. By Geniusofdespair

Bad thing No. 1: These 3 signs are on South Dade Government Center/Police Dept. Property.

Bad thing No. 2: They were nailed to trees. With big nails. Take the 4 of them down please (one not pictured).

Mo's, the Jewish Version of Versailles Restaurant, Will Get a Visit from Julio Robaina. By Geniusofdespair

According to the South Florida Daily Blog Julio Robaina is headed to the the Jewish stronghold: Mo's Bagel & Deli Thursday. Robaina's special guest will be Luke Campbell, touts the invite.

I hate to disappoint you Julio but Jewish seniors are going to be put off by your special guest. Probably by you too. But they will like the free breakfast you are offering: Lox and Bagels for everyone! Free food? We all are Verklempt!

POLL: Gimenez Takes the Lead!! By Geniusofdespair

Carlos Gimenez is now the front runner for County Mayor leaving Julio Robaina in the dust according to a Bendixen poll conducted for the Miami Herald and El Nuevo Herald:

"In the poll, 50 percent of likely voters picked one-time underdog Gimenez for the county’s top job, while 39 percent chose Robaina."

The PBA is going to be so sorry if Carlos Gimenez wins. Their attacks were over the top. They had better hope Gimenez is not the type to take revenge. But it isn't in the bag yet, the poll didn't factor in all those fraudulent absentee ballots.

Here is another reason to vote for Carlos Gimenez:

CBS TV Reporter Jim DeFede Looks at Julio Robaina's Record. By Geniusofdespair

Jim DeFede decided to check Mayoral Candidate Julio Robaina's rhetoric while campaigning against the facts. They didn't match up. DeFede reported Julio touts his successful record in the city of Hialeah but others beg to differ:

“...he’s destroyed the city,” said Barbara Hernandez, president of union representing a majority of Hialeah’s 1,600 employees. “I believe he acted out of malice toward the residents and its employees.”

What Probably Went Down When Julio Met With Uncle Luke. By Geniusofdespair

Link to video

If I were a fly on the wall of Luther Campbell's office, during a meeting with Julio Robaina, this is what I think I would have heard, after Julio Robaina saw the Miami New Times video.

Julio Robaina's Campaign Money. by Geniusofdespair

Hialeah Julio Robaina just added $124,760 to his campaign coffers. He got $5,000 from Century (Sergio Pino) and related companies. There was $7,500 from one address in Miami Lakes: 16400 NW 59th Avenue. That is also the address of Jose Boschetti's Company Prestige Builders Partners, LLC (also Martin Caparros and Arthur Falcone). Julio also got $4,000 from a perfume wholesaler in Hollywood - The Falic family. The Falic family also gave $4,500 to Carlos Gimenez. Why are perfume people so interested in what goes on in Miami-Dade politics?

Julio raised $1,335,248.83 so far.

Smoking Gun Video: Julio Robaina's Step in Shit. By Geniusofdespair

Video of Luther Campbell saying that Julio Robaina promised to hire his pal Rutledge in exchange for Campbell's endorsement. Only trouble is THIS IS ILLEGAL. A complaint was already filed with the State Attorney's office.

CBS 4 on this story. Someone should tell Luther Campbell there is no taking back a video - we all heard what we heard. What a putz trying to deny what he said on that New Times video. I guess he didn't realize it was a felony and could have ejected his man from the race.

Rick Scott and Julio Robaina. By Geniusofdespair

Link to video

Guy Files A Complaint With State Attorney Against Julio Robaina. By Geniusofdespair

Is this guy that wrote the letter to Joe Centorino the same Darrin McGillis that ran for Governor still looking for his 15 minutes of fame? The Darrin running for Governor was for decriminalizing Marijuana so he ain't half bad. Anyway, I don't think his letter will amount to anything, remember this is Rundle's office we are talking about and the letter had no specifics. You have to spoon feed these investigations with overwhelming evidence. Here is a link to the letter.

Rick Scott and Mayoral Hopeful Julio Robaina. By Geniusofdespair

Tomorrow I will post the video...someone put it up with Highway To Hell as the sound track. Rick Scott's wooden moves are priceless. Julio keeps better time than his pal.

The Legacy of Hialeah Mayor Julio Robaina. Guest Blog By Milly Herrera

I drove around the city of Hialeah this past weekend and took some photos, the one at the top was taken 3 blocks from Historic Hialeah Park. Julio Robaina has been the Mayor for the past 5 years but he has done nothing to beautify our city! In fact, in my own neighborhood, projects were approved for road repairs to prevent severe flooding and now there are no funds.

Is this what we would want for the whole county? Absolutely not but he makes a promise in his literature to bring his style of leadership to the entire County.

Mayor Robaina has been unsuccessful at correcting many problems in our city and leaves behind a mess. I have lived here for 44 years and it is worse now than ever. There have been severe cuts, but there was always money found for the mayor's select projects!

I am angry. I do not want this man to be elected Mayor of Miami Dade County. I just want the people of this county to "see" for themselves the way we live. I drive in other neighborhoods in the County and I am jealous of the clean streets. Here is a photo of a street not far from my home...

They don't allow pick-up trucks to park on swales in the City of Coral Gables overnight. I wonder what the mayor of Coral Gables would say if he saw this 18-wheeler that Hialeah allows to park overnight on a swale in a neighborhood.

Julio Robaina on the Campaign Trail. By Geniusofdespair

The next one will be better...

I am Voting for Carlos Gimenez TOMORROW For Miami Dade County Mayor and also My Pick for District 7. By Geniusofdespair

I have been getting many, many annoying emails telling me why my candidate choices are wrong. "Don't you know you #@?$, son of a bitch, that your candidate did this or did that?"

I know that Carlos Gimenez has done things I don't like and I know that County Commission District 7 Candidate Julio Robaina TGO also did some things I disliked. Julio voted to keep the plug on Terri Schiavo. What could could be dumber than that? Maybe Suarez supporting to give Dolphin Sun Life Stadium public dollars. Does Julio's stupid vote have any effect on us in Miami Dade county? No. Will Suarez's choice effect us: Damn right it will.

In an election you never get the PERFECT candidate. You try to get the best you can. I am not an idiot. I know what these candidates have done over the years. I have looked at what all the candidates in these races have done over the years. For example I have followed Gimenez since he was fire chief and Hialeah Julio since he became a councilman in Hialeah. I made the best choices weighing all the variables. You will notice I did not weigh-in in district 13 because I have not followed the candidates there. If you don't like my choices well who friggin' cares. But, I did give this a lot of thought and I think Carlos Gimenez is the best candidate for Mayor and I think South Miami Julio Robaina (TGO) is the best candidate for County Commission District 7.

Let me add one thing, the Suarez supporters are by far the most rude and nasty I have every encountered. I cannot believe the slurs left on this blog because I disagreed with them. I don't dislike Xavier Suarez so their anger is unjustified. I simply made a choice based on my history in Miami Dade County. Take what you like, you don't have to agree with me. One more thing. The PBA should be totally ashamed with the nastiness they have infused into the Mayoral election courtesy of campaign dork Keith Donner.

We have endorsed Carlos Gimenez for Miami Dade County Mayor at Eye on Miami.

We have endorsed Julio Robaina (TGO) for County Commission District 7.

Julio Robaina, Ghost Banking, and Christmas Tree Democracy ... by gimleteye

Daniel Shoer Roth, in The Miami Herald, urges the feds to tell us what they know about Hialeah mayor Julio Rubaina's activities as a ghost banker and link to a convicted Ponzi schemer in a city before next week's election of Miami-Dade mayor. As Shoer surely knows, it is not so easy for law enforcement to make public corruption cases. Sometimes their investigations amount to detecting smoke in a crowded theater.

In mob parlance, ghost banking is called loan sharking. In the media, it is uneasily defended as a source of capital for well-meaning immigrants who otherwise would not qualify to start entrepreneurial businesses. But there is another aspect to loan sharking -- the activity that is a source of Robaina's wealth-- that deserves special attention: the way questionable business investments-- backed by usurious loans-- can depend on turning a zoning or building permit in the grey edges of a city or county planning grid.

It is no secret that political insiders use government like a pinata or Christmas Tree. Shake the tree, and all the presents fall near people who have traded favors or quid pro quo's. Ghost banking fits this profile neatly. Of course, there are FDIC chartered banking institutions with questionable business practices lead to twisting government arms along the lines of exploiting the arbitrage between cheap land that can't be developed and government policies that can be deformed to serve special interests: the Urban Development Boundary and board of directors of US Century Bank-- rated zero now by Bauer Financial-- comes to mind. I recall Mayor Julio Robaina and Sergio Pino, the founder of US Century Bank and well-known backroom lobbyist, linked arm-to-arm in lobbying solidarity on one such zoning decision in Miami-Dade County, involving Hialeah lands outside the UDB.

The bottom line: the feds were right to shine light on Robaina's connections to a shadowy world where winks and nods are like ornaments on the government Christmas Tree. It is called "ghost" banking for a reason. The pinata form of democracy has hurt Miami-Dade over the years, as it has in so many other cities and counties in the United States. Voters keep returning its standard bearers to public office. Whether or not Robaina's case builds to a federal indictment, political facilitators will always be circling under the governmental Christmas Tree. The question for voters:  do you want the star at the top of the tree to be oblivious, at best, to what is happening beneath the large branches or, at worst, adding more gold to his luster?