Serendipity Strikes Again

I Am The Liberal Media

Irrational Numbers

Y'know, we Liberals here in the Land of Lincoln are very fond of our governor.  He has signed into law a lot of legislation that gladdens our hearts, cleaned up a lot of our budget mess, and he has enough f-you money to bankroll much of the Illinois Democratic party, with enough left over to spread around to other critical elections beyond our boundaries.  

Plus, he's not afraid to throw elbows in a political fight, which, in Illinois politics, is right up there with rooting for da Bears, or standing up and cheering when The Bear takes home an armload of Emmys.  

But when he's wrong, he's wrong.  And even when his wrongness looks as mouthwatering as a rack of ribs from Lem's to a Democrat hungry for good news, we must demure.  We must speak the truth as we know it.  This is what separates us from the MAGA freaks.  

So what did JB get wrong?

From Meidas Touch Network:

Pritzker on Iowa: Almost Half of GOP Base Rejected Trump in Show of Weakness  

 

The Illinois governor said that Trump's margin of victory in the Iowa caucuses shows his general election weakness.

Speaking to Rachel Maddow on MSNBC Monday night as Iowa Caucus results poured in, Illinois Governor and Biden surrogate J.B. Pritzker put the results into perspective.

"Almost half of the base of the Republican party showing up for this caucus tonight voted against Trump. Think about that," Pritzker said, as Trump hovered around 50% of the vote with more results still to be determined.

Pritzker continued, "So, I think that is telling. It tells you the weakness of Donald Trump."...

First of all, kudos to MSNBC to finally figuring out that we have some pretty formidable and successful Democratic leaders out here in flyover country, and putting one of the best on the air in prime time.

Second, sadly, Pritzker's math is just wrong.  This was also a mistake make by veteran political strategist Joe Trippi on Xwitter, and by Lawrence O'Donnell on the aforementioned MSNBC.  Here's why it's a mistake.  The Meidas Touch article continues:

Trump claimed over the weekend that 95% of the Republican Party is MAGA. Yet, entrance polling showed that only 49% of Iowa caucusgoers in the Republican Party considered themselves to be part of the MAGA movement.

To cite no less of an authority than Dr. Julius Hibbert (The Simpsons):

"And hillbillies prefer to be called 'Sons of the Soil,' but it ain't gonna happen!”

The last 20 years of Republican politics has been one long series of rebranding scams.  Hardcore, "Impeach Clinton at any cost" Republicans effortlessly morphed into "How dare you question George W. Bush's genius, ya damn commie!" Republicans, then, after the Bush regime collapsed, they morphed yet again into into "Independent constitutional conservatives".  Then into Tea Party conservatives who had never even heard of George W. Bush.     Then into MAGA.

Almost overnight, millions of Won't-shut-up-about-the-deficit Republicans transformed into Who-cares-about-the-deficit Republicans ... and then back into Won't-shut-up-about-the-deficit Republicans ... and then back again into Who-cares-about-the-deficit Republicans without breaking stride.

The point is that it doesn't matter what they do or do not call themselves, they're all Republicans.   Our very own Blue Gal saw this coming all the way back in August of 2016:

Don't You Dare Call It 'Trump-ism'

The Media is attempting to separate the Republican Party from Donald Trump. Who voted for him again?

It isn't Trumpism. It's the Republican Party. And it has been for far longer than Donald Trump has been running for President...

Whatever they call themselves, 10 million more of them came out of the woodwork to vote for Donald Trump in 2020 than in 2016.  Because at the end of the day, Republicans will always fall in line.   Just ask Marco Rubio, who, in 2016, had this to say about Donald Trump -- 

"He is a con artist. He runs on this idea he is fighting for the little guy, but he has spent his entire career sticking it to the little guy — his entire career." 

-- and two days ago, wholeheartedly endorsed him:

When Trump was in WH I achieved major policies I had worked on for years (like expanded Child Tax Credit & tough sanctions on regime in Cuba & Venezuela) because we had a President who didn’t cave to special interests or let bureaucrats block us.

I support Trump because that…

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) January 14, 2024

When I look at Iowa, I don't see a Republicans party riven by division, half-MAGA and half fleeing MAGA, ready to shatter.  Instead, like Dave Weigel, I see a party where all the available alternatives are aligned with Trump, regardless of what they call themselves:

MAGA (Trump): 51%

Reformed MAGA (DeSantis): 21%

Orthodox MAGA (Vivek): 8%

Republican Classic: 19%

So, sorry JB.  If Democrats are focused, aggressive and well-financed, it's a fair bet they can peel off enough Republican voters in enough swing states to win in November.  But it's long past time to stop pretending that some Republican "fever" is going to break and half the party will return to "normal".

Trump is the new "normal", 

He and his brand of fascism are the new normal because the Republican party and Conservative media spent the last +40 years and billions of dollars trying to build an electoral doomsday machine with no "off" switch. 

And they succeeded.

I Am The Liberal Media