For the 95th time...OSCAR RESULTS!

This was such garbage. Not even a single on-stage assault or incorrect nominee read out! Why am I even watching this? By all accounts it's a very smooth ceremony when the major thing that happens is Elizabeth Banks almost falling. In general, my predictions were noticeably terrible, but that's really because so many films were shut out! How does Tar, Elvis, and Banshees of Inisherin all come home empty handed? I thought Everything might sweep, but this was a hell of a sweep. Let's dive in!

2023: 11/23

2022: 12/23

2021: 12/23

2020: 13/24 

2019: 13/24 

2018: 16/24 

2017: 13/24 

2016: 14/24 

2015: 13/24 

2014: 20/24 

2013: 14/24 

2012: 16/24 

2011: 14/24 

2010: 12/24

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Actual Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Heyyyy got this one right. I am so bad at Best Picture predictions, I did get Nomadland right in 2021 but it had been seven years before that. This is super weird and also full of heart and to be really honest, should be a poster child for how unpredictable Oscar Best Picture winners have really become.

1/1

Best Director

The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh

Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg

Tár, Todd Field

Triangle of Sadness, Ruben Östlund

Predicted Winner: Kwan and Scheinert

Actual Winner: Daniels

Yay! Loved Swiss Army Man (2016) and it's insane that they win Best Director in their follow up going against this insane field. But it's deserved, EEAAO is a bonkers movie that they keep smooth and coherent. In lesser hands this would fall apart immediately.

2/2

Best Actor

Austin Butler in Elvis

Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Paul Mescal in Aftersun

Bill Nighy in Living

Predicted Winner: Colin Farrell

Actual Winner: Fraser

Listen, I'm all about the Fraserssance. Airheads (1994), Gods and Monsters (1998), The Mummy (1999), and uhhhh....surely others in the past twenty years. Doom Patrol? The dude is great and so genuine and sweet, he deserves this. Except he doesn't, I don't really like exploitative performances behind a bunch of make-up and how is this Colin Farrell's first ever nomination? And Austin Butler is right there! I'm very torn, this isn't an Eddie Redmayne thing where it's so blatantly undeserved, but there just feels like there was better work to recognize, despite everyone loving Brendan Fraser.

2/3

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett in Tár

Ana de Armas in Blonde

Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie

Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Winner: Yeoh

Actual Winner: Yeoh

Ye-haw! This was tough between Blanchett, Yeoh, and de Armas, but it's great to go to Yeoh. You could tell Blanchett was over it and get real, Tar is so hard to get through, man. This is a great win.

3/4

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway

Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Winner: Quan

Actual Winner: Quan

Harrison Ford giving Quan the Best Picture award was really, really surreal. Great win, I think Keoghan really deserved it but this was such a dark horse. It's really fun. Barry will be back.

4/5

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau in The Whale

Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Winner: Bassett

Actual Winner: Jamie Lee Curtis

I could have maybe seen this coming if I had made predictions closer to the ceremony. This was definitely going to be an award to honor a lifetime of work and although Bassett seemed to crush awards early on, it felt more like JLC going into the ceremony. I might even say that both performances weren't either actress' best, but it's surely going to deserved person here.

4/6

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

Predicted Winner: Banshees

Actual Winner: Everything

This really tripped me up, it's crazy to win director, screenplay, and three quarters of the acting awards these days. I wonder if this will signify changing trends or be the outlier. Dude, Banshees was better. Like, I love both movies and I know Everything was a lot to keep track of, it certainly owns every moment, but I just thought they'd spread the love.

4/7

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Living

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

Predicted Winner: Western Front

Actual Winner: Women Talking

See, this is why I thought Banshees would win. It's such a pared down and dedicated, dialogue-focused screenplay. I don't know. I suppose they couldn't read German so now my prediction there seems stupid. But also All Quiet on the Western Front won everything else, so who knows. Now my predictions will really crater.

4/8

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: Maverick

Actual Winner: EEAAO

Yeah, dude. I get it, it's tough to edit this kind of film to make sense and the sequences come together with really crisp efficiency. But Top Gun: Maverick needed to win something to acknowledge how insane its flying hours came together, right? I mean, it was nominated everywhere, I thought it had more love. I guess not. It's a good win, it just comes down to the same deal - I thought awards would be spread out, instead this film won seven out of ten nominated categories!

4/9

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

Predicted Winner: Pinocchio

Actual Winner: Pinocchio

Yay! Well deserved although I just watched Puss in Boots and that might actually be a bit better! This is fantastic, no whining from me.

5/10

Best International Feature Film

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Close

EO

The Quiet Girl

Predicted Winner: Quiet

Actual Winner: Quiet

Yep. No brainer here.

6/11

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Elvis

Empire of Light

Tár

Predicted Winner: Quiet

Actual Winner: Quiet

Same. The best of the lot.

7/12

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Predicted Winner: Babylon

Actual Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Everyone was saying Babylon so I went with it, then I watched the movie and the score was actually amazing and tied the entire film together and added such driving energy that it towered over all other nominees. But I guess people just hated this movie so went with their default, which was somehow the only other movie to win anything last night!

7/13

Best Original Song

“Applause” from Tell It like a Woman

“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Naatu Naatu” from RRR

“This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Winner: "Naatu"

Actual Winner: "Naatu"

Hell yeah. How is this actually the first India-produced song to win anything? We really ignore Bollywood huh? Tollywood too.

8/14

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans

Predicted Winner: Elvis

Actual Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

It just seems so easy now. Like, that was just going to win everything. Sure. Folks were predicting Babylon, which I resisted, but I just didn't pick the right upset.

8/15

Best Costume Design

Babylon

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Predicted Winner: Wakanda Forever

Actual Winner: Wakanda Forever

Hey, it wins again! Got this right, no notes, clearly the best.

9/16

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

All that Breathes
Fire of Love
Navalny

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Descendant

Predicted Winner: Fire of Love

Actual Winner: Navalny

Neither what people thought nor what I thought. Fire of Love was not that great, I actually did end up watching it. Navalny sounds like nuns in the navy to me for some reason, I'm going to assume that's what that was about, so a well deserved win.

9/17

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: AVABAR

Actual Winner: AVABAR

Sure, makes sense.

10/18

SOUND

Top Gun Maverick
Avatar the Way of Water
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All At Once

Predicted Winner: TOP GUN

Actual Winner: TOP GUN

Sure, makes sense.

11/19

Best Animated Short

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
“The Flying Sailor” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
“Ice Merchants” Joao Gonzalez and Bruno Cactano
“My Year of Dicks” Sara Gunnarsdottir and Pamela Ribon

“An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It” Lachlan Pendragon

Predicted Winner: "Ostrich"

Actual Winner: "Boy, Mole, Fox, Horse"

Meh, whatever.

11/20

Best Documentary Short

“The Elephant Whisperers” Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
“Haulout” Evgeniaq Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
“How Do You Measure a Year?” Jay Rosenblatt
“The Martha Mitchell Effect” Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison

“Stranger at the Gate” Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

Predicted Winner: Martha Mitchell

Actual Winner: Elephant Whisperers

Fine.

11/21

Best Live Action Short

“An Irish Goodbye” Tom Berkeley and Ross White
“Ivalu” Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
“Le Pupille” Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuaron
“Night Ride” Erik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen

“The Red Suitcase” Cyrus Neshvad

Predicted Winner: Le Pupille

Actual Winner: Irish Goodbye

11/22

Best Make-up and Hairstyling

The Whale

Wakanda Forever

The Batman

Elvis

All Quiet on the Western Front

Predicted Winner: Did not predict

Actual Winner: The Whale

Hey! I didn't actual predict this somehow. I probably would have honestly slid into Elvis, because it just seemed more viable at the time, but whatever. Give it to double Oscar winner The Whale I guess.

11/23

Man I just got tripped up this year. Usually I'll get at least one or two documentaries or shorts go my way, so that hit hard, as well as some acting and technical awards that didn't spread the wealth the way I thought they usually do. I suppose that's every year. But for real, best writing, directing, acting, editing and picture is friggin WILD. Good for them, Everything Everywhere All At Once is spectacular and one we can be pretty proud of. We really don't want to be in this timeline right now, do we?

2023 I'm Oscar Dot Com

Hey Folks! It is another year of pretty bad nominees, but some of them are cool so we'll roll with that. We could follow the trades, whatever those are, but really that's the coward's way out. HERE we have now for you, Norwegian Morning Wood's OFFICIAL 2023 146th Annual Oscar Predictions.

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

This could go a few ways for sure, but lately the Academy has just had this absolutely boffo streak like The Shape of Water (2017), Parasite (2019), and Nomadland (2020). My biggest disappointment is that I don't want Everything to ever become a mainstream movie. It's so fun and original and niche and weird, I'd love to keep it all to our weird selves. It's wacky that it's gotten this traction, but perhaps even the Academy is getting more niche and wrapping in on itself? There are insane nominees here - Elvis, Triangle of Sadness, Top Gun: Maverick? It's a fun lot. Inisherin might upset, but I just don't see it.

Best Director

The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh

Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg

Tár, Todd Field

Triangle of Sadness, Ruben Östlund

Predicted Winner: Kwan and Scheinert

Best Director doesn't seem to line up with Best Picture that often, and it might to to Spielberg, but that just feels cheap, you know? Probably. There's a case for everyone here. Field makes films rarely enough that they could think to give it to him while it's out. McDonagh has done well in recent years but notably didn't for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017), so maybe that's rectified here? But I think in cases of insular weirdness, just like the aforementioned three weird BP winners above, the awards align.

Best Actor

Austin Butler in Elvis

Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Paul Mescal in Aftersun

Bill Nighy in Living

Predicted Winner: Colin Farrell

Everyone is saying Fraser or Butler and the latter is deserving, but I'm going with the curveball. He had a ridiculous year and I don't think the Academy actually gives out those Comeback awards as often as we think they do. Butler could easily get this, they love biopics for some reason, but man Elvis is just so damn weird. I want to stick with my Farrell pick.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett in Tár

Ana de Armas in Blonde

Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie

Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Winner: Yeoh

This could easily be Blanchett, but I think she nuked herself when she started talking about how she doesn't care about awards. And Yeoh is perfectly deserving and has momentum. I'm pumped for Ana de Armas, she really did a triumphant job in Blonde, but that just doesn't seem to have caught on with...much of anyone besides me. I sure would love to see her win against Michelle Williams who was nominated for playing Marilyn Monroe ten years ago and lost. Also, how the hell did that definitely a scam Andrea Riseborough campaign actually work?!

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway

Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Winner: Quan

It just feels like it's in the bag for big child actor and then retired Ke Huy Quan. Is it messed up that Short Round will get an Oscar and not Indy? I'd really love to see Keoghan, I loved EEAAO but c'mon the acting in Banshees is absurd. I actually don't think Quan is all that super great, I guess he switches personas effortlessly, but Hsu, Yeoh, and even Curtis are the big names here. And yeah, they're all nominated, too so that's cool.

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau in The Whale

Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Winner: Bassett

Man it'd be fun for Jamie Lee Curtis to finally get an Oscar. Although she really hasn't been in that many films that stretched her acting muscles, just a huge unrecognized generational talent. Of course if anyone were to beat her, no one's more deserving than Angela Bassett, who after a bit of a slump through the early 2000s has come back doing ridiculously great work in the past decade. She's also incredibly deserving and I'm a huge fan, it'll be fun to see!

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

Predicted Winner: Banshees

This feels right, especially if it's snubbed elsewhere. It really is a marvelous screenplay, it lacks the didactic pretension of Tar, and I haven't seen the rest. EEAAO might sweep and nab it, but it feels like it should go here. Plus, McDonagh's films haven't actually won this despite building a great following over the years.

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Living

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

Predicted Winner: Western Front

I don't actually know here, man. Glass Onion and Maverick seem way too mainstream. Living and Women Talking seem way too obscure. Also, who thinks Top Gun has a great screenplay? It lacks all iconic lines of the original and has the most insanely convenient ending of all time. Am I the only one who thought it wasn't that great?! Give it all the awards in the world for cinematography and production design, but it's not a great or unique story, man. Okay, it's efficient, sure. I'd be shocked but also like "of course." if it wins. Quiet is left, so let's go with that.

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: Maverick

I dunno. Tar doesn't even have editing. Elvis is nothing but editing and Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) won a few years ago for much less. Everything certainly has a lot and it's integral to the story. Banshees it's not super apparent. Maybe that's the ticket! Top Gun maybe, it's definitely a feat to to cobble together all that footage. It seems to be leading and again, with other technical snubs, maybe this is a "good enough" kind of category for it.

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

Predicted Winner: Pinocchio

Is it possible? It's definitely the best one. And the most uniquely animated. It's the forerunner right now. I haven't seen Beast or Puss yet, but I hear they're good. I don't like that shell fucker. Turning Red was solid but not really exceptional. Maybe the Del Toro name slapped on this film is critical to remind folks of its pedigree and we definitely went Pinocchio crazy for some reason this year. It seems like a safe bet.

Best International Feature Film

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Close

EO

The Quiet Girl

Predicted Winner: Quiet

I thought Argeninta, 1985 would be the lock, but it's kind of that deal where, why wouldn't they vote for the one film who is also nominated in a ton of other categories. Seems like a no brainer I wonder if we'll get tripped up.

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Elvis

Empire of Light

Tár

Predicted Winner: Quiet

Dude, like, these all suck. No Top Gun, Blonde, Nope, Don't Worry Darling, Barbarian? Whatever, man. Just seemed like a ton of beautiful movies released this year. 1917 (2020) JUST won this, will the differentiate or is that a safe indication of trends? Or does it just go to Roger Deakins for Empire of Light? I can see it going to the flash and breathtaking Elvis. It's got to win something. Maybe. Let's hope that's editing and this goes again to Western Front, which just seems to follow trends right now and is the more traditional winner in this kind of category.

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Predicted Winner: Babylon

I haven't seen it. But it's apparently good? Sure. I can't picture the score of anything else.

Best Original Song

“Applause” from Tell It like a Woman

“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Naatu Naatu” from RRR

“This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Winner: "Naatu"

Now give RRR a best picture nod! This seems like the most in the bag category of the year, which is spectacular.

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans

Predicted Winner: Elvis

Folks are saying Babylon, I just can't see that winning that much, people seem to hate that movie. That kinda leaves...Elvis? Or do we give awards for longest, not best these days. KIDDING AVAMAGAR, kidding.

Best Costume Design

Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Predicted Winner: Wakanda Forever

It won last time, so...sure? Nothing else is really creeping in. Maybe EEAAO. Lots and lots of creative and cool costumes there. But nothing really wild and from a different time or culture like Wakanda Forever.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

All that Breathes
Fire of Love
Navalny
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Descendant

Predicted Winner: Fire of Love

Most of these sound cool. Beauty and Blood seems to be the frontrunner. But documentary always just goes to the one people have heard of, and that's clearly volcano love.

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: AVABAR

Listen, I give this movie a lot of crap but it should clearly win here. Maybe Top Gun because those effects are actually more impressive (real always wins), but people seem behind ABAMRAR.

SOUND

Top Gun Maverick
Avatar the Way of Water
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All At Once

Predicted Winner: TOP GUN

Man, you never know. But those jets are sweet. And they had to record in those loud ass things, too. It's got to win something. War movies are always big here, too. We'll see where it ends up.

Best Animated Short

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
“The Flying Sailor” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
“Ice Merchants” Joao Gonzalez and Bruno Cactano
“My Year of Dicks” Sara Gunnarsdottir and Pamela Ribon

“An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It” Lachlan Pendragon

Predicted Winner: "Ostrich"

It's got a cool title. "Ice Merchants" is the other one that seems like it has a neat premise. Everything else is trash. Who knows.

Best Documentary Short

“The Elephant Whisperers” Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
“Haulout” Evgeniaq Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
“How Do You Measure a Year?” Jay Rosenblatt
“The Martha Mitchell Effect” Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison

“Stranger at the Gate” Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

Predicted Winner: Martha Mitchell

I dunno, relevance? Seems like the most interesting, and that's how I make these crapshoot predictions.

Best Live Action Short

“An Irish Goodbye” Tom Berkeley and Ross White
“Ivalu” Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
“Le Pupille” Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuaron
“Night Ride” Erik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen

“The Red Suitcase” Cyrus Neshvad

Predicted Winner: Le Pupille

Comes from Cuaron, so there's pedigree and was on Disney+, so there's exposure. "Ivalu" and "Red Suitcase" seem cool and "An Irish Goodbye" is like the inverse Banshees of Inisherin. So lots to go on there, but let's be safe and stupid.

So there you have it! All 23 categories, perfectly predicted, stay tuned for the actual Oscar ceremony which will assuredly happen sometime in the future!