First Impressions: TED 2

Welcome to Norwegian Morning Wood's 666th post! That is a tremendous amount of posts, actually. That's really pretty absurd. I wanted to do some post about Hell, maybe a list of my favourite Satans, or just that the weirdest Will Smith movie role ever and have it at that. After seeing TED 2 (2015) this weekend, though, and owing you all my take on it, I really thought the upside-down stars just lined up perfectly. And it's not like I didn't enjoy TED 2, but it was an unequivocally bad movie, and by its nature, enjoying it certainly condones a trip to the Warm Place. Let's get toasty!

I do like how they brought back this actress (Jessica Barth),
for a major role spun off of a joke in the first film

First of all, anyone going into TED 2 had better know what they're getting into. If a long history of Family Guy and ten-thousand other terrible animated shows haven't demonstrated Seth MacFarlane's crass blend of shock humour, consumer comedy, and esoteric vaudeville yet, then certainly the first TED (2012) should have. TED hit like a lightning bolt, a decidedly un-PC look into typical white male Boston life that's...pretty damn accurate, if not exaggerated to the pleasant point of demonstrating on screen a live action cartoon.

That is one thing that both TED films do pretty well; hold up a nice slick look and solid production value. Both films having a slew of A-list stars, this latter one even more so is a treat. It's almost nice to see Seth MacFarlane getting the chance to do real Family Guy-style reference humour, only with live actors like (SPOILER, I guess), Jay Leno and Liam Neeson showing up as themselves to make the joke instead of an animated caricature spouting Seth's malleable voice.

This is actually where TED 2 works really well, and it's also where years ago I realized Family Guy works well: as a sketch comedy. Many moons ago I found myself in a Family Guy YouTube clickhole slugging clip after clip, because it works so well in short little bursts. Little jokes or scene set-ups are fantastic, some with actual insight into either the hypocrisy or just the pop culture dumbness of the age, but rarely do a string of these form any sort of coherent television show. TED was this in some way, but it mostly had some kind of narrative. TED 2 has an extremely loose plot, even if its Civil Rights angle would seem like an important driving force. Instead, this film relishes in getting side-tracked just following its characters' lives. This isn't always terrible, mind you, and a lot of it remains pretty funny, but there's nothing deeper to gain here, despite what should have been a fairly prescient setting ripe for satire.

Seth MacFarlane's humour has been analyzed and criticised pretty thoroughly, so I won't get into that here. Heavy on pointing out references and providing shock value under the guise of knowing better would be better if they weren't winking at the audience so much or did a better job selling their characters as satire. Peter Griffin isn't Archie Bunker. There's no comeuppance or foil, or even consistent characterization to assuage the rampant intolerance that's spewed on a regular basis, even if they pretend to get the audience on their side. And this works when it's funny. TED 2's terribleness works more often than it should because the jokes land really well. But intelligent satire has stronger staying power when it presents something to reflect on, which this film is more than eager to just brush by the wayside.

I can hardly tell which side of the audience MacFarlane is on. He'll straddle bro culture, making a pot-centric Boston asshole movie, but open with a garish musical number that made me think of The French Mistake, because that's my only reference to this kind of thing. But that was broken up by cowboys, because Mel Brooks favors the silly over just fucking with the audience. MacFarlane just likes fucking with the audience and indulging his own bizarre Old Hollywood sensibilities.

There's a lot more to this movie that just ends up kind of off. Amanda Seyfried is regularly refreshing, but in no world would it make sense for a first-time lawyer to whip out a bong and start smoking in front of her first prospective clients. I'm also glad she's become MacFarlane's go to girl for big eye jokes, after she had a similar jokes at her expense in A Million Ways to Die in the West (2014). The pop culture virgin was a nice touch, especially as a foil to the non-stop reference spouting Ted and Mark Wahlberg.

On the latter of that duo, you've got to give him some credit for really going all out in this movie. Being covered in semen, a revealing porn addiction, getting frightened on his way home, and generally acting like a big softie doofus, Wahlberg's John Bennett character is a fairly epic teardown of one of our cooler actors.

There's lots of other little bits here. The Hasbro plug was kind of weird, because even though they may have enjoyed their blatant product placements it was fairly negative. I mean, yeah, Hasbro had a huge part to play in the story, but they were the damn villains. Giovanni Ribisi's return was almost pleasant, if not just for the chance to see him do his signature dance in a full Raphael get-up. That was also the only part of the film that reaked of the plot of its predeceessor, though, which was simultaneously disappointing and a relief that for the most part, they struck new territory.

Thunder buddies for life

The Comic Con scenes in general laid it on a little thick and seemed to be overtly catering to the nerd culture of the day, although they attempted to contrast this through general apathy through Patrick Warburton and Michael Dorn who gave us a quaint meta moment by dressing them up as characters they've both played before, The Tick and Worf. Their weird apathetic gay love was again kind of a miss, and their blatant bullying seemed in bad taste, only because none of it was really funny. I'm all for gay bully jokes, but they've got to be funny enough to transcend the offense. Like Bob & Cedric. Without some kind of inherent goofiness their jokes came off mean instead of funny, which isn't great.

And this is perhaps the most frustrating thing about MacFarlane - he knows goofiness! He has such a high capacity for irreverence and silly! But he waxes his films in these weird tones that stretch too far into territory that can't balance out his shock humour to make it palatable. Despite some terrible editing, strange tones, and next to no plot, I did enjoy TED 2, because it is pretty funny. Sad suggestions at the improv may be the greatest idea ever, but it's jokes like that that are just uproarious with no bearing on character or plot that ultimately bring the movie down. That's the great irony. TED 2's funniest moments invite its doom.

What did you think? Are you all about this foul-mouthed Bostonian Bear or are you over it? Leave a comment!

Road to a Blockbuster: TED 2 Shits on the World

The clock has once again struck Friday, and considering that weekend real estate is a precious commodity in the Summer months, we've got another big flick premiere on our hands. It's time to assess the critical, commercial, and most importantly, the cultural potential of this weekend's releases. Big budgeted, high profile blockbusters by their nature have a lot more weight to throw around than any other film, and even though we're also seeing Max (2015), which is about some retarded dog or something, if it doesn't have a "Mad" in front of it, I'm not totally interested. So we're talking TED 2 (2015).

Comedic sequels are difficult for every Waynes World 2 (1993) or Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay (2008), there's a Caddyshack II (1988) or Evan Almighty (2007). That's really just the tip of the terrible comedy sequel iceberg. That iceberg goes really, really deep. It destroyed the Titanic! And that's an even more suitable metaphor by the fact that it's not funny at all.

Why do comedy sequels suck so much? It's probably because they lack that critical impulse of surprise that the first one pulls off. The sequels I named above came pretty close to matching their predecessor, mostly from taking their great characters and sticking them in slightly different, but still believable (for the characters...) situations. I still call Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues (2013) one of the rare sequels that actually improved upon its original material, but I'll also recognize that I'm virtually alone in that assertion. On the other end of the long-range sequel is Dumb and Dumber To (2014), which I harshly criticized for doing the exact same shit as the first movie, which spat in the face of how well Anchorman 2 handled itself.

I do love how this joke turned into a
well-balanced, rewarding marriage.

TED 2 is of course an entirely different animal (a bear!) because it's coming out relatively quickly after its predecessor, TED (2012). TED was really notable as Seth MacFarlane's first foray into live action writing and directing after basing the majority of his career making terrible, terrible cartoon shows. TED was also hilarious - in a completely uncompromising, terrible, "Hey Norah Jones, thanks for 9/11" sort of way. It had a confidence and fearlessness that is lacking in plenty of comedy these days that's more comfortable getting a quick laugh from a reference or complacent silliness than anything edgy.

Of course, there's difference between crass shock humour for the sake of being shocking and something that's actually satirical or says something interesting about its topic. TED is also full of consumer comedy, which often blends in horribly with its shock humour, resulting, for example, in creating a pretty awful Asian stereotype for sake of completing a Flash Gordon (1980) reference. It's an odd film but a pretty successful debut for MacFarlane by all means. It made a ton of money, was liked by critics...as much as they were ever going to, and was pretty damn funny.

In the years since MacFarlane churned out A Million Ways to Die in the West (2014), which was much of the same brand of half-reference/half-shock comedy, wrapped in a Western shell which was all kind of weird, but not nearly as awful as most people thought. In the past year it's been outgrossed by Horrible Bosses 2 (2014), Dumb and Dumber To, The Wedding Ringer (2015), Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 (2015), and even Let's Be Cops (2014), which doubled its domestic gross. And if you're thinking "Damn, I forgot about that movie," or even "I've never heard of that movie!" rest assured, that's the point. A Million Ways came and went with the legit threat to put an end to MacFarlane's career. It'd be different if it were just a terrible movie that bombed, but it was a terribly offensive movie that no one liked. I mean, I don't have a problem with a film being offensive, but there has to be some redeemableness, sympathy, or satire there for the offense to work. A Million Ways just kind of offends and then smiles hoping you'll get it.

This would again be acceptable if it were funny. It's biggest showpieces just don't land with the unprecedented hilarity they need to to keep the film's steam up. Now, I've shit all over this, and I said earlier that it doesn't deserve its reputation, and hopefully this explains a little bit why it gained that awful reputation. I'll just say that it isn't any worse a comedy than Horrible Bosses (2011) or We're the Millers (2013) or any other forgettable comedy that's done well. It just bombed critically and commercially because of little ways it pushed things over the edge.

To be fair, no one is ever doing this with E.J. Manuel.

TED 2 is really MacFarlane's last hope. It's back in his wheelhouse - trusted material he kicked ass with before along with making a ton of money. By all means fucking this up would be a disaster. I don't know why I'm still cheering for him, actually. I hate Family Guy and pretty much everything else he's done. I did love his Oscar hosting, because that room needs its balls busted. And I do love his fearlessness. I guess I just wished he could craft a better joke or outlet that strayed farther from consumer and more into character. I mean, he has good characters! And he crafts good stories! We know you can write, Seth, why do you just go the lazy way out all the time?

Critics have already savaged TED 2, but who cares. Culturally, I can see this adding to the mythos of the first film, but not really branching out on its own, although at first glance it would appear to be striking out on its own rather than re-hashing the same shit. I'm also curious whether or not that hyped up Tom Brady cameo falls on its face in the wake of Deflategate. Nah, to New Englanders it doesn't matter. He still has glowing junk. Commercially it's hard to say. We've been kind of starved for good R-rated comedies this year, and there's nothing really in its way for a while, so it ought do do well. That is, if it can actually escape the rather large shadows of Jurassic World (2015) and Inside Out  (2015), the latter of which has had some of the best word of mouth of the year. You know, those crowds may not be too similar.

What do you think? Seeing TED 2 this weekend? Or time for another crying sesh with Inside Out? Leave one below!

Liam Neeson Plays the Same Character in Every Movie...I Mean this Very Literally

Liam Neeson isn't the only actor who is commonly criticised for playing the same exact character, but he is maybe one of the few in this day and age who makes the same exact movie over and over again. Especially considering the rapid fire succession of A Walk Among the Tombstones (2014), Taken 3 (2015), and now Run All Night (2015) debuting today, it's time to talk about this Liam Neeson problem. Now, I don't really care about the detached criticism of him playing the same character over and over again - I want to make the argument that the reason for this is that we have been lied to. We area actually only seeing bits of one story featuring different parts of one character's life. That character is actually Liam Neeson.

So, partly inspired by this canny observation, here is the REAL history of Liam Neeson's actual life, which is all we have been watching until this point in time. Needless to say, there are so many spoilers for every Liam Neeson movie made in the past thirteen years. So, with a really select version of Neeson's recent action films, let's take a look at the Neeson family, starting from the Old Country:

They made surprisingly good movies in 1846

In the early 19th Century, Liam Neeson's great-great-great grandfather arrived in New York City. Taking the name Vallon, he feuded with locals in the Five Points neighborhood, in particular with a gang leader named Bill "The Butcher" Cutting. The Butcher eventually killed Vallon in combat, but not before Vallon birthed a son, Amsterdam Vallon. Eventually, Amsterdam's son would reject the throngs of the city, mostly because he was a homeless bastard, but found much more at home expressing his family's violent tendencies out west. He turned into one of the most dangerous men in the Arizona Territory and the first and only Irishman in the West. To separate himself from his brutal upbringing, he took the name Clinch Leatherwood.

After Clinch, generations would pass without much disaster. That is of course, until June 7, 1952 when a baby Liam Neeson shot his way out of his mother's whom. He nominally took the role of an actor as a cover for a baffling array of roles in the military and law enforcement, but he would mostly reject this and use his specific set of skills as a private mercenary time and time again. He got his start as a police officer, then detective in New York City, but gave that up when he was involved in a bar fight that resulted in him accidentally shooting a seven-year old girl.

Liam look the name Bill Marks and after drowning his sorrows in alcohol, became an Air Marshall. He was hailed as a national hero after a dangerous, bomb-laced flight from New York to London. His faith in government renewed, he joined the Army, dying his hair and changing his name again in order to mask his well-known identity as both the well-respected actor from Schindler's List (1993) and as the savior of British Aqualantic Flight 10. He decided John Smith would be a perfectly reasonable alias, although his close compatriots nicknamed him "Hannibal."

Hannibal and his cronies, though, were set-up by the CIA and estranged from the government, despite their valiant efforts in securing missing U.S. Treasury plates. Calling themselves "The A-Team," Neeson and his gang worked for those who had no one else to turn to. The life wore on Neeson, however, and he longed to again be at peace with his country. He joined the CIA, but in order to protect the rest of the A-Team he took the name Bryan Mills and died his hair again.

Quick! Guess which movie this still is from!
It's impossible!

It was as Bryan Mills that he took a job to assassinate the Prince of Saudi Arabia under the cover of Dr. Martin Harris. Suffering a car accident immediately prior to the job, though, Neeson unknowingly found himself with amnesia. I don't think this was actually CIA work in Unknown (2011), but it could have been...right? They could have used a cover name. Shut up, it fits this stupid post). This job would alienate Neeson from the Agency, though, and he retired. It was then that he met the love of his life, Lenore.

He would have a daughter named Kim with Lenore, but eventually they divorced. Neeson got a job bodyguarding pop stars, but the life pulled him back in. Kim was taken, so Neeson, using the name Mills still, killed a lot of people. Then his wife was taken, so he killed a lot of people again and got her back. Then his wife was killed, which really devastated Neeson. After investigating and avenging her death and seeing his daughter, Kim, pregnant, Neeson left for a job in Alaska fighting wolves.

He took the name John Ottway to distance himself from his tortured past, but was constantly reminded of images of his dying wife. To cope with her murder, he envisioned her slowly succumbing to a lethal disease. After a plane crash, subsequent survival in the harsh wilderness, and yes, some more wolf fights, Neeson set out across the world; a true attempt to leave the world behind.

In Asia he stumbled upon the League of Shadows, who immediately welcomed him in, particularly enamoured with his specific set of skills. They bestowed upon him the name Ra's al Ghul. In his depression and nihilism, he rose through the ranks of the League of Shadows and trained many warriors, including a young Bruce Wayne. That one would come back to haunt him. Bruce Wayne turned his back on the League of Shadows philosophy of burning the world and starting over. Liam Neeson, after his years of pain, betrayal, and hardships was a strong proponent of this insanity. When Bruce learned of Neeson's plan to destroy Gotham City using a train system that turned all of the city's water into fear gas (boy that sounds stupid when stated succinctly), he foiled the plot and killed Neeson.

Or so it would seem. Neeson was injured in the crash but crawled his way to a Lazarus Pit and regained his health. These Ra's al Ghul Lazarus Pits were actually the means by which Liam Neeson has stayed so virile all these years and how he has two fully grown daughters. He sired the second one, Talia while in the League of Shadows. She was also taken from him and raised by Bane in a hole. It was rough but she loved him. It is unknown whether or not Talia and Kim ever got together.

Seeing another chance at life, Neeson reformed and became a career military man. He joined the Navy and quickly rose up the ranks until he earned the rank of Admiral, again changing names to hide his past, this time to Terrence Shane. His polished tenure was marred during an alien attack at a RIMPAC that coincided with the much worse offense of one of his subordinates macking on another daughter of his, Samantha. Samantha was notable for being the only Liam Neeson daughter who wasn't taken, but in the aftermath of the alien invasion, his daughter became engaged to the young Alex Hopper.

Yes, even Battleship.

This turn of events again disillusioned the decorated Admiral, and taking the name Matthew Scudder, tried to forget his life and resist a return to alcoholism. He was eventually wrapped up in a convoluted story about a junkie, some drug dealers, and street rats. He again solved his problems by killing a lot of people. Finally, he is called for some of some actions he took while he was a mercenary assassin under the name of Jimmy Conlon, and has to kill Ed Harris' son. Or Ed Harris is killing his son or something. I haven't seen Run All Night.

At the end of all this, though, Zeus wakes up. See, all of Liam Neeson's life has been a dream. When Zeus dreams he pretends he is Liam Neeson, because we all want to be something more powerful than ourselves. Then Zeus died in Wrath of the Titans for some reason, so Liam Neeson's life is finally put to rest. Or...is it?

For your convenience, here are the films we were able to dissect to pull data about Liam Neeson's actual life and how they are possibly connected. Feel free to debate my order:

Gangs of New York (2002) - Priest Vallon's son, Leo ends up birthing:
A Million Ways to Die in the West (2014) - Clinch Leatherwood, dies but his fierce Irish progeny with an appetite for killing everyone would live on.
A Walk Among the Tombstones (2014) - (1991 scene) Matt Scudder kills a kid
Non-Stop (2014) - Bill Marks, former NYC cop, now an alcoholic Air Marshall
The A-Team (2010) - Hannibal Smith, army leader turned mercenary
Unknown (2011) - Amnesiac assassin, Martin Harris at some point cannot maintain a life on the run and buys his way out through working with a shady organization
Taken (2008) - Bryan Mills, former CIA
Taken 2 (2012)
Taken 3 (2015) - Wife dies
The Grey (2012) - Taking the name Jon Ottway, Liam Neeson flees to fight wolves in the wilderness
Batman Begins (2005) - Ra's al Ghul forms the League of Shadows in his depression
Battleship (2012) - After a guise of death, and filled with awesome stories of wolf-fighting and ninja-army leading, it's a lock that he rises to the rank of Admiral Shane

A Walk Among the Tombstones (2014) - Matt Scudder retired alcoholic cop

Run All Night (2015)
Clash of the Titans (2010) - all of the preceding was actually Zeus dreaming that he was Liam Neeson
Wrath of the Titans (2012) - Zeus finally dies.

The Road to a Blockbuster: One Maleficent Way to Die in the West

There are two films hitting the Box Office this weekend with relatively high expectations. One is another in a long line of surprisingly successful live action epic fantasy adaptations, and the other is a dirty comedy western. Unbelievably, this is Summer Fodder. Will either reign supreme as a commercial, critical, or most importantly, a cultural champion? Let's discuss:

Craw! Craw!

The frist, and undoubtedly higher profile release today is Disney's Maleficent (2014), the celebrated retelling of the Sleeping Beauty story (or more specifically, the Disney Sleeping Beauty [1959] story) from the perspective of the chief baddie in that film, Maleficent. Maleficent is a sweet villain as far as classic animated cinematic villains go, and she is usually the one that all the other Disney Villains answer to, after all, she's the Mistress of All Evil. Not only is she totes wicked as a human (is she human? With the green skin and horns?) but she also turns into a giant black dragon at the end and spews hot green fire. As far as Disney Princess movies go, that part always really hit me as a prepubescent boy.

And now we have all this in a big budgeted Disney Summer thrillride. And be sure - this is not the kind of movie you make if you don't have Angelina Jolie in the title role. She looks perfect in every way, from the visual facsimile to the intimidating weight of her stardom. It would appear like a perfect match. My only question is, what the hell is the audience for this thing?

As I mentioned, there has been a glut of these kinds of heady fantasy adaptations lately dating back to Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland (2010), which also took a spin on the specifically Disney-canonized version of the material. That made a ridiculous amount of money, which naturally led to more classic fantasy stories getting the Big Hollywood treatment like Snow White and the Huntsman (2012) and Oz the Great and Powerful (2013). Neither of these really struck what Alice struck, though, which was also one of the first films that started this trend of being completely critically and culturally ignored in the United States, but made crazy crazy money overseas. I mean, we had things like AVABAR (2009), but that was at least lauded for its quality here and also made an insane amount of money domestically. Alice proved that you can pull off completely screwing the American audience in the name of spectacle. Snow White and Oz didn't really pull off that same feat, but it's what everyone major motion picture release has been going for since.

So, there is that audience there. Note that also due to its PG rating, it's neatly positioned itself as the family-friendly blockbuster entertainment of the summer, even though if I was a little kid I may be creeped out by all the witches and Ent monsters running around. I'm also curious if anyone is familiar with the 55-year old source material, but Disney's Princess line, for all their criticism, has done a spectacular job of keeping these ladies and their stories in the public consciousness. But will this family / princess enthusiast crowd be interested in the re-telling from the villain's perspective? Well, I think that's where Angelina fits in, who just owns this part.

So, yes, I think this will make a lot of money. Will anyone care about it come August? I don't think so. It won't make headway in the kinds of fan-crowds that continue propagating a piece of pop culture (nerds) and it doesn't, frankly, look like all that good of a film to sustain interest or positive word-of-mouth. It won't be Lone Ranger (2013)-level of dismissal, but I just can't picture this stealing anyone's hearts. Maybe it wins a Costume Design or Art Direction Oscar like Alice did, but other than that, I don't think this will find any long-term love. But, money - that's important.

Basically, Brian in a Western

The other epic opus we're seeing this week is Seth MacFarlane's One Million Ways to Die in the West (2014), which has had a truly insane amount of advertising this past month. There's hardly a commercial break that goes by where I don't hear Liam Neeson exclaiming that "Some one in this town is going to die." On that part , the cast is largely a dream, with Charlize Theron and Neil Patrick Harris rounding things out. It looks like a delight, but again, there's this big gap concerning who the hell is actually going to see this thing.

Seth MacFarlane's empire and stock is rising, (maybe not, actually, The Cleveland Show was just cancelled, but at least making fun of it was one of the funniest and on-target things Family Guy has done in a while) at least among his fans, after TED (2012) and the Oscars, and that was also a nice way to show what he can do with live action. But as much as his fans turned out for it (And I'm the rare dude who generally has never cared for any of his shows, but I do dig, well, I guess just TED and his go at the Oscars), there is such an equally huge contingent of people who hate MacFarlane, for pretty justifiable reasons.

Also, what's the market for comedy westerns, exactly? What do we even have to go on? Blazing Saddles (1974) is the easy one, of course, and that fits the offensive bill as well, but does MacFarlane really want to go up against the funniest movie of all time? And if we look more recently we have only...jeez...Rango (2011)? Let's take out animation. Wild Wild West (1999)? That could be considered more an adventure film. Back to the Future Part III (1990)? There's not really anything like One Million Ways, which makes it hard to draw comparisons. I have no idea if people will be up for a romp in the West with Seth MacFarlane, and with the very recent success of Neighbors (2014), I'm not sure we're really comedy starved, either. And in two weeks we get 22 Jump Street (2014). He had better be bringing his A-game here, because if not, this movie will get lost forever in a sea of superior Summer 2014 comedies.

It's really a wildly divergent weekend. Will you go to see the Disney live action fantasy revival? Or the Hard R-Western Comedy? My guess is that your answer is going to say a lot about where you are in your life right now. Or just see Neighbors, Godzilla (2014), or Days of Future Past (2014) again, they're all solid. Maleficent and One Million Ways to Die in the West hit theaters today.

The Oscars! Live Results 2013

Welcome folks to our Third Annual Night of LIVE Oscar Blogging. We'll be running through the results in real time baby, and seeing how many of our predictions we got awfully, awfully wrong. Seth MacFarlane is hosting it up and the overdressed self-obsessed celebs are gathering to their seats. It's time to celebrate the most overblown self-congratulatory night in the nation! Let's get started! We'll place our predictions in bold and the winners in RED.

8:48 PM

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin for Argo
Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained

Holy Shit! Did not see this coming at all! I thought this was a dead heat between Tom and Bobby, but Chris does it again after winning for a very similar role for Inglourious Basterds. I suppose his Golden Globe win was more prophetic than we all thought! This is a big shocker to start the evening - where may we go from here?!

Prediction Accuracy: 0/1

8:58 PM

Best Short Film, Animated

Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Paperman
The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare

Somehow Paul Rudd's presentation here was worse than his Golden Globe presentation. I had officially called Maggie Simpson when I made my initial predictions, but anyone could have seen Paperman coming a mile away. It's really a great short, and quick enough to find and watch on YouTube if you so desire. Still, I'll go by the book on my predictions a month ago and chaulk this up to a winless streak so far. Damn.

Prediction Accuracy: 0/2

9:00 PM

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Brave: Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman
Frankenweenie: Tim Burton
ParaNorman: Sam Fell, Chris Butler
The Pirates! Band of Misfits: Peter Lord
Wreck-It Ralph: Rich Moore

I did not think Pixar was going to pull it off this year at all. Wreck-It Ralph seemed like it had a bit more good favour for it rather than the bizarro Brave story. Still, a Pixar win is never really an upset, is it? I need to start giving updates to predictions a week out, I knew "Paperman" would hit it. I guarantee I flubbed Best Editing and Adapted Screenplay, too.

Prediction Accuracy: 0/3

9:06 PM

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Anna Karenina: Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained: Robert Richardson
Life of Pi: Claudio Miranda
Lincoln: Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall: Roger Deakins

What, No Scarlett to present with the Avengers boys? Rough digs by Downey, Jr at the Academy and a little self-serving, pal. Still, they seemed to move on quickly. This was starting to look like it was going to go in the favor of Janusz or Roger, who will remain tragically ignored by the Academy throughout an incredible career. With the concept that this flick is last year's Hugo (2011), though, this was always Life of Pi's to lose.

Prediction Accuracy: 1/4

9:09 PM

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

The Avengers: Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, Daniel Sudick
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White
Life of Pi: Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott
Prometheus: Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, Martin Hill
Snow White and the Huntsman: Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Phil Brennan, Neil Corbould, Michael Dawson

Somewhat nice banter. Nothing great, though guys. Sam Jackson's red jacket is fantastic, though. So many deserving nominees this year, but again, Life of Pi and the tiger, Richard Parker was an incredible effect. It's the kind of effect that just about single-handedly wins an award like this. Kudos. Wait - is that seriously the wrap-it-up music this year? Kind of clever, but really marginalizing of some emotional speech moments!

Prediction Accuracy: 2/5

9:16 PM

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Anna Karenina: Jacqueline Durran
Les Misérables: Paco Delgado
Lincoln: Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror: Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman: Colleen Atwood

Love when Jennifer Aniston and Channing Tatum are the best presenters of the night so far. Mirror Mirror was robbed! This was somewhat of a no-brainer, but still, there were many period pieces that could have scored here. Jaqueline has a decent nomination history, though, and the exquisiteness of Anna Karenina pushed it over the edge. I always feel like I have a stutter when saying "Karenina."

Prediction Accuracy: 3/6

9:19 PM

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

Hitchcock: Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samuel
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane
Les Misérables: Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell

They are really cranking through these! The speeches have been really short - maybe they are really scared of Jaws coming to munch some heads. This ultimately isn't that surprising. The make-up effects in The Hobbit could be seen as repetitive or derivative of the earlier Lord of the Rings films, and they used more CGI this time around anyway. Still, that didn't take away from Christoph Waltz's win! Good on you, Les Mis

Prediction Accuracy: 3/7

9:23

This Bond tribute was billed as a really big thing. Are they just playing the theme and showing some clips from the crappier movies? Great.

9:26

Shirley Bassey sounded better in 1964.

9:32 PM

Best Short Film, Live Action

Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry

Always a weird category for exactly why Jamie and Kerry just said - in the past it has been a good stepping stone towards A-List directors. Still, who cares for the most part. Nailed the call for Curfew, though, and it's nice to see a Christensen win. This is officially my proudest pick of the night so far, because who knows what the hell these other films are.

Prediction Accuracy: 4/8

9:35 PM

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption

Damn! Well, who knows who will win these things. Now that the more useless categories are out of the way, though, we can attest the rest of our predictions against the big awards.

Prediction Accuracy: 4/9

9:38

Getting kind of random with the groupings of BP noms and their presenters. What does Liam Neeson have to do with any of these films besides almost getting the title role in Lincoln? Also nice to see Argo's Zep "When the Levee Breaks" finding its way here. Did they make sure to point the needle on the right spot in IV?

9:43 PM

Best Documentary, Features

5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

These movies actually look pretty important. Sugar Man really seems like the least important of any of these, but the dudes who did the excellent Man on Wire (2008) must have knocked it out of the park again. I say "must have," because of course I have not seen any of these. I'm just glad I'm back up to .500.

Prediction Accuracy: 5/10

9:50 PM

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Amour (Austria)
War Witch (Canada)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
Kon-Tiki (Norway)

Yawn. Alright. There was never a chance Amour wasn't winning this. Moving on then.

Prediction Accuracy: 6/11

9:55 PM

Catherine Zeta-Jones sounded better in 2002. Wait, how did that happen? I was wondering what the hell Renee Zellweger was doing here during the pre-show...

10:00 PM

You know, sure, we've had like three musicals in the past decade or so that have made some waves at the Oscars. Is that really worth an entire tribute that takes show time away from some of the Best Documentary Short Winners' speeches? I mean, I give the latter a lot of shit, but they ARE talented Oscar winners. This is kind of bullshit.

10:05 PM

Viva la France!

10:12 PM

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

Argo: John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, José Antonio García
Les Misérables: Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes
Life of Pi: Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin
Lincoln: Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Ron Judkins
Skyfall: Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson

The TED 2012 bit was alright. How did this become the Les Mis show in the past ten minutes? This is a very musical-friendly category and this was never really seriously contended. More importantly, I'm back in the black for correct predictions.

Prediction Accuracy: 7/12

10:14 PM

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Argo: Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn
Django Unchained: Wylie Stateman
Life of Pi: Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton
Skyfall: Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker
Zero Dark Thirty: Paul N.J. Ottosson

Jew jokes with Ted, eh? It's nice that Seth can get his really obnoxious jokes out through this and the Kirk bit at the start of the ceremony. Really he only gets away with it through a ton of Self-depredation. Which is appropriate. Listening to Ted say "Zero Dahk Thirty" is crazy.

WAIT WHAT? A TIE?! That's possible? I'm giving myself the Zero Dahk Thirty win. I didn't know Oscars could tie. Well, call me McNabb I suppose. Props to both winners. Does this make each win a bit less significant? Damn. If this was anything but Sound Editing I'm sure it would be way more interesting!

Prediction Accuracy: 8/13

10:20 PM

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams for The Master
Sally Field for Lincoln
Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables
Helen Hunt for The Sessions
Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook

Seth has found a great way to integrate a cutaway gag into a Live Oscar Ceremony and make fun of Christopher Plummer. He's bordering on brilliant, now. I can't wait until Amy picks up her statue, it's really just a matter of time. For now though, it goes to Hathaway. AND EVERY ACTRESS WHO HAS PLAYED CATWOMAN IN THE PAST DECADE HAS AN OSCAR. BOOM. And damn you can tell this was a well-rehearsed speech!

Prediction Accuracy: 9/14

10:32 PM

Best Achievement in Editing

Argo: William Goldenberg
Life of Pi: Tim Squyres
Lincoln: Michael Kahn
Silver Linings Playbook: Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers
Zero Dark Thirty: William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor

OK, this was a tough category to predict. It seemed like Zero Dark Thirty was all set to nail it, but then Argo started coming on real strong in the critical last month or so. But hey - either way it was going to Goldenberg! This is a good indication that Argo will go on to win it all - there was only a slim chance it would do so without picking up this one. This is another prediction I would have liked to change in the last couple weeks, but whatever.

10:36 PM

I like that it's such a guaranteer that Adele wins that they're really only playing her song among all the other Best Original Song nominees tonight.

Prediction Accuracy: 10/15

10:48 PM

Best Achievement in Production Design

Anna Karenina: Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright
Les Misérables: Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson
Life of Pi: David Gropman, Anna Pinnock
Lincoln: Rick Carter, Jim Erickson

So lively, K-Stew is. Anyway, I didn't see this at all. It may indicate that Lincoln has some love yet outside of Daniel Day-Lewis' performance. It will certainly be an interesting night when we get down to it!

Prediction Accuracy: 10/16

11:09 PM

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Anna Karenina: Dario Marianelli
Argo: Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi: Mychael Danna
Lincoln: John Williams
Skyfall: Thomas Newman

It seemed like this night was moving quickly, now it's just dragging terribly. This was another Golden Globe win that I didn't think would take with the Academy. My predictions are slipping a bit again and it's clear that there is some love for Life of Pi and Lincoln's Best Picture chances take another hit.

Prediction Accuracy: 10/17

11:12 PM

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Chasing Ice: J. Ralph ("Before My Time")
Les Misérables: Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer ("Suddenly")
Life of Pi: Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree ("Pi's Lullaby")
Skyfall: Adele, Paul Epworth ("Skyfall")
Ted: Walter Murphy, Seth MacFarlane ("Everybody Needs a Best Friend")

Yeah, that's about right. At least they played a bit more of every song here after they showcased Adele earlier. And good that Seth got his own track in here performed by Ted's sex buddy Norah Jones. Also, yeah, Scarlett Johansson is now an Academy-Award nominated singer. I remember thinking it ridiculous that Ben Affleck and Matt Damon were Academy Award-winning screenwriters, too, but look at Ben now! Probably!

Prediction Accuracy: 11/18

11:23 PM

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Argo: Chris Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild: Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi: David Magee
Lincoln: Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook: David O. Russell

Fearsome category this year. With Argo's surge of late, this could have been better predicted. Nice win, and by now there's no reason why Argo won't win it all. I can also do no better than tie my best set of predictions, and that's only if I win everything from here on out. That's not looking good.

Prediction Accuracy: 11/19

11:26 PM

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Amour: Michael Haneke
Django Unchained: Quentin Tarantino
Flight: John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom: Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty: Mark Boal

Hey! Look at that! QT strikes back against Mark Boal! Why didn't I believe the Golden Globes, more?! Nice win here and apparently Django has gotten a bit more love from the Academy despite its controversies, notably in the script itself. Still, it is a great script and deserving here.

Prediction Accuracy: 11/20

11:33 PM

Best Achievement in Directing

Michael Haneke for Amour
Ang Lee for Life of Pi
David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild

It wasn't Ben or Kathryn, so who cares? Still - quite a surprise here, and it's clear that as it would turn out, no one really gives a shit about Lincoln. This is really pretty crazy - does Life of Pi actually stand a chance at Best Picture now? Ang Lee is certainly deserving - moreso considering how drastially different of a film this is from his previous win for Brokeback Mountain (2005).

Prediction Accuracy: 11/21

11:40 PM

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva for Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts for The Impossible

There we go. This was a tough ride for a while between her and Jessica Chastain, but even with a little trip up the stairs, Jennifer has an Academy Award in addition to being really hot, really beloved, and still the headliner of a soon-to-be billion dollar worldwide franchise. And she's still so likable! We love you, J-Law!

Prediction Accuracy: 12/22

11:46 PM

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Hugh Jackman for Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
Denzel Washington for Flight

This was Daniel Day's award to lose, but this nomination should still help to legitimize the otherwise joke cinematic careers of Hugh and Brad. Joaquin could care less. Denzel is still the best part of Flight that's not the plane crash. But for all intents and purposes, Daniel Day is well on his way to becoming an actual real-life Kirk Lazarus. Congratulations! AND he gets points for what may be the best joke of the night - Daniel's Margaret Thatcher, Meryl's Lincoln, hell yes.

Prediction Accuracy: 13/23

11:52

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Damn - a Jack Nicholson / Michelle Obama / Michelle Obama's bangs triple introduction? Fantastic! Ben nails it and we all need to respect him now, I guess. No more douche posts, I swear. Argo is certainly deserving, as so many films were in this very competitive year.

Well, the long season is finally over. It's time to get some sleep, lick my wounds, and work on my awful predictions for next year.

Goodnight, everybody!

Final Prediction Accuracy Tally: 14/24

Oscar Zone, Vol. IV: Nominations & Predictions

Now that we've settled into a little bit of Oscar Season and the Golden Globes have come and passed, welcome to the Fourth Edition of the Oscar Zone - Norwegian Morning Wood's ultimate source of Oscar Knowledge, Predictions, and Inevitable Failure. It's always a tough spot of the year, dealing with Oscars. On the one hand they're fairly meaningless - a win is much more an indication of which studio was able to lobby politics in its favor the most rather than an accurate judgment of the integrity of the year's best films. Still, it's the most prestigious official award you can get in the film industry, and Oscar certainly has a way of canonizing its recipients as some of the best. It also immortalizes some films in ways nothing else can. Why else would anyone in 2013 care about Crash (2005)? For good or ill, they're a big deal and have a huge impact on the industry, if only for being the sole reason why some films are made.

They're also pretty fun to predict, talk about, and argue over. That and Box Office Predictions are the closest thing nerdy film snobs have to a Fantasy Football Season. Without further adieu then, here are our predictions for all 24 categories. First, though, here is how we've done in years past, and you'll actually note that I've gotten better each year:

2012: 16/24
2011: 14/24
2010: 12/24

Ugh, I'm really bad at this. Let's get to it. Predicted winners in BOLD.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

This is a race essentially coming down to Lincoln, Argo, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook. While Silver Linings is hitting at the right time and is the only film since Warren Beatty's Reds (1981) to score an acting nod in every category, romantic comedies (which is the closest genre you can put this in) very rarely win Best Picture. Likewise, the love of Life of Pi is evident from the ridiculous amount of nominations it received as well as the idea that since the Academy outright snubbed Ang Lee on Brokeback Mountain (2005) they may try to rectify it here.

Ultimately this seemed in the bag for Lincoln - which can also be seen as righting a past wrong (his snub in '99 when Saving Private Ryan lost to Shakespeare in Love and its Weinstein Machine), until Argo kicked ass at the Golden Globes. The American voters in the Academy ought to shine much higher on the American epic, Lincoln, although Hollywood does love depictions of its own, as seen with The Artist (2011) last year. It's ultimately a tough pick, but as Spielberg and Affleck come down to it again, the heady historical drama (see also: The King's Speech [2010]) ought to win the day.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Hugh Jackman for Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
Denzel Washington for Flight

This is essentially coming down to Dan and Hugh, but there isn't really a question that the towering performance of Lewis will leave him with an unprecedented third Best Actor Trophy. As the Golden Globes indicated, everyone is in love with this performance. While it's not as totally in the bag as his turn in There Will Be Blood (2007), if he nails the Screen Actors Guild Awards on January 27th, it's all but assured.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva for Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts for The Impossible

This is shaping up to be the most interesting race of the night. You've got two great young acting talents, J-Chast and J-Law battling it out through two breathtaking, career-defining roles. They both have recent nominations in their history (Jessica for Supporting Actress in The Help [2011], Jennifer for Leading Actress in Winter's Bone [2011]). They also both won their respective Golden Globes in the drama and comedy categories. No matter who wins, it won't be the last time either of them is nominated. Although Zero Dark Thirty was so entirely driven by Jessica's performance, I'm giving the edge to Jennifer. It's very unlikely that anyone else from Silver Linings wins, but it's clear that the Academy was enamoured by the acting. Will her dig at Meryl at the Globes hurt her? This could sure go either way - what will the SAGs think?

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin for Argo
Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained

This is an insane category in that every nominee has already won an award, making it one of the most competitive races ever. Yes, for once, the Supporting Actor Oscar Winner is murky. I landed on Tommy Lee here through eliminating everyone else. Christoph Waltz easily wooed the Hollywood Foreign Press into his Golden Globe win, but he was better, or at least fresher during his last win as Landa in Inglourious Basterds (2009). PSH had a dominating performance, and since it was an especially featured role that could have gone leading, that may be in his favor, although the Academy seems to hate The Master. This could easily go to De Niro as sort of a capstone to his career, like they did with Alan Akrin for Little Miss Sunshine (2006), but this hasn't been the case lately (see: Mickey Rourke losing for The Wrestler [2008] to Sean Penn's Milk [2008]). With Tommy's scowl gone viral, who's doesn't want to see more of him in the spotlight?

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams for The Master
Sally Field for Lincoln
Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables
Helen Hunt for The Sessions
Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook

This was preordained from that first trailer for Les Misérables. The specific moment that Anne won her Oscar - her single take, live on-set rendition of "I Dreamed a Dream" has been the centerpiece of all of Les Mis' marketing for good reason - it's the one guaranteed shot at Oscar that it has. Of course, it will probably walk away with quite a bit more.

Best Achievement in Directing

Michael Haneke for Amour
Ang Lee for Life of Pi
David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild

Kudos to however Spielberg knocked Affleck and Bigelow out of this competition. Maybe he enlisted Bill Clinton to help him. In one of the wackier categories that doesn't line up at all with either the Golden Globes or the DGA Awards, Spielberg and Ang are really the only consistent nominees. Lincoln has far more widespread love than Life of Pi, and the Academy has shown that it loves them directors that can recreate them historicky period times - it's his to lose.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Amour: Michael Haneke
Django Unchained: Quentin Tarantino
Flight: John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom: Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty: Mark Boal

I can see this going to Moonrise, it's the kind of quirky (awfully clichéd word to describe a very nuanced film that's otherwise hard to describe, I know) pic that has soared here in the past (Little Miss Sunshine, Juno [2007]), but it's totally out of momentum by now and the seriously crazy journalistic lengths Mark Boal undertook should be recognized. He did just win this award for The Hurt Locker (2009), and it's fun to see him go against Tarantino again in the same category. QT nabbed the Globe, but he was pretty shocked at it. Will the Academy approve such liberal use of the n-word? I think not.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Argo: Chris Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild: Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi: David Magee
Lincoln: Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook: David O. Russell

The past five awards have all been based on books with similar Best Picture momentum. It also helps that Tony Kushner's adaptation an navigation of complex 19th-Century politics is astoundingly clear, concise, and impactful. Most of these were also nominated for WGA Awards, but we won't find that out until February 17th, a week before the Oscars. We won't need to, Lincoln is all over this.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Brave: Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman
Frankenweenie: Tim Burton
ParaNorman: Sam Fell, Chris Butler
The Pirates! Band of Misfits: Peter Lord
Wreck-It Ralph: Rich Moore

Holy shit - the Best Animated Oscar is actually contested! While I dug Brave, there were many who thought Pixar had slipped a little, and that's reflected in my prediction here. Indeed the flick was kind of out there. The inclusion of The Pirates! Band of Misfits is intriguing and also makes this category full of three claymation pictures. That might indicate that claymation is hot among voters this year, in which case the best of the lot may be Frankenweenie. Wreck-It Ralph, though, had a far more engrossing hook, brand, and box office haul, causing me to lean in its favor.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Amour (Austria)
War Witch (Canada)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
Kon-Tiki (Norway)

Amour was nominated for Best Picture...and is the only Foreign Language Film so nominated. Doesn't that mean it's the best Foreign Language Film? The same thing happened with animated films Up (2009) and Toy Story 3 (2010) - it's kind of a foregone conclusion it'll win here, which is spectacular, because this category is crazy hard to predict some years. The lack of the French film The Intouchables (2012), which for a long time was a foregone conclusion as an Oscar favourite, is a little surprising, but since Mike Haneke already cleaned up among his own Foreign brethren at the Golden Globes, he'll probably go for the kill here.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Anna Karenina: Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained: Robert Richardson
Life of Pi: Claudio Miranda
Lincoln: Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall: Roger Deakins

It's clear that there is some Life of Pi love with its astounding 11 nominations, but it's not really favoured to win that many. That expression of love ought to come through here, although Kaminski is 2/5 at the Oscars and if Lincoln sweeps, it's his. Roger Deakins, however, is 0/9 at the Oscars and really deserves a little Golden Bald Man as sort of a Career Achievement Award. The cinematography of Skyfall was also one of its more notable, if not its best aspect. Still, I don't think the Academy will go for it.

Best Achievement in Editing

Argo: William Goldenberg
Life of Pi: Tim Squyres
Lincoln: Michael Kahn
Silver Linings Playbook: Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers
Zero Dark Thirty: William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor

Editing is another nice way to acknowledge how much the Academy loved a film without really giving it a major award. 0D30 has plenty of love but is a bit to divisive for them to really back in anything major (except maybe Jessica for Best Actress). This could of course mean that Argo leaves empty handed, which seems highly unlikely. If it ends up making a run for Best Picture, this ought to fall its way.

Best Achievement in Production Design

Anna Karenina: Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright
Les Misérables: Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson
Life of Pi: David Gropman, Anna Pinnock
Lincoln: Rick Carter, Jim Erickson

The production design of The Hobbit was exceptional and deserving, but Les Mis is hitting a bit harder right now. Return of the King wowed in 2003, but that was riding a ton of Lord of the Rings buzz that hasn't followed the more middling Hobbit. Experts at Gold Derby have pointed out that this category has not gone to a film set in contemporary times in twenty years, and many of its experts have sided with Anna Karenina, Les Misérables, or Lincoln. Looking at the last few winners though, Hugo (2011), Alice in Wonderland (2010), and AVABAR (2009), it seems like by far this category fancies fantasy rather than period productions. That splits this category between The Hobbit and Life of Pi, and with its 11 nominations, the latter has the advantage.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Anna Karenina: Jacqueline Durran
Les Misérables: Paco Delgado
Lincoln: Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror: Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman: Colleen Atwood

Dueling Snow White tales aside, at first this may seem like the perfect category for Anna Karenina. It's a dopey period movie that no one really saw, and follows a long line of recent winners such as Marie Antoinette (2006), Elizabeth: The Golden Age (2007), The Duchess (2008), and The Young Victoria (2009). It's predicted to win by a wide margin, and I wouldn't be surprised if it did. However, in all these years, no film has contested here that has had as much support as Lincoln. Both The Return of the King and The Artist won here when they were nominated with plenty of additional Best Picture support. However, however, this year is looking to be much more like 2010, where The King's Speech won Best Picture, but many other awards were split - it was nominated here and lost. I think that will hold true for Lincoln and we'll see another crappy period flick nab the honor.

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

Hitchcock: Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samuel
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane
Les Misérables: Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell

This award has actually quite often gone to the bigger blockbuster films such as Star Trek (2009), The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe (2005), Return of the King and The Fellowship of the Ring (2001). If The Hobbit wins anything, it's this one, but with films such as La Vie en Rose (2007) and The Iron Lady (2011) also pulling this award out, it's really fair game. I give an edge to Peter.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Anna Karenina: Dario Marianelli
Argo: Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi: Mychael Danna
Lincoln: John Williams
Skyfall: Thomas Newman

No one is really running away with this so far this year, I'm leaning towards Lincoln based on its strong support elsewhere, but like cinematography, Life of Pi could very well pull away with this one. In years prior this has gone to sweeps (The Artist, Slumdog Millionaire [2008], Return of the King), near-sweeps (The Social Network, Brokeback Mountain) and totally random picures (Up, Atonement [2007]). Betting on John Williams and Lincoln is fairly safe, although this by far his best score. Life of Pi did conquer at the Globes, and the score is damn good, so a win there would not be surprising.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Chasing Ice: J. Ralph ("Before My Time")
Les Misérables: Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer ("Suddenly")
Life of Pi: Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree ("Pi's Lullaby")
Skyfall: Adele, Paul Epworth ("Skyfall")
Ted: Walter Murphy, Seth MacFarlane ("Everybody Needs a Best Friend")

To be honest, I'm just glad we have a good field of nominees here instead of the two we had last year, even though that gave The Muppets (2011) a nice easy win. Incredibly, no James Bond theme has ever won an Academy Award - that will end in 2013. Everyone loves Adele, and she might as well add an Oscar to her ridiculously long list of Awards. "Skyfall" is a spectacular track, both for the movie it's featured in and for everyday casual listening - this really can only be rarely said for movie songs (but often for Oscar-winning movie songs - I love me some Three 6). Les Mis had a bit of a cheap shot here and has been criticized for creating the original song "Suddenly" purely to get some Oscar recognition. It's one of the weaker songs in the film for good reason, being shoved in there arbitrarily. And would I like to see Seth MacFarlane go home with an Oscar in addition to his hosting duties? Hell yeah.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

Argo: John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, José Antonio García
Les Misérables: Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes
Life of Pi: Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin
Lincoln: Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Ron Judkins
Skyfall: Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson

When musicals or movies with heavy music influences are nominated here, they tend to win (Dreamgirls [2006], Ray [2004], Chicago [2002]). Les Mis fits the bill pretty solidly for the production of its sound content, which is vital for this film. Still, it has also gone to bigger flicks like Inception (2010), The Bourne Ultimatum (2007), and King Kong (2005), a testament to how vital sound is to the creation of these big fantasy and action worlds - in which case, Life of Pi or Skyfall may seem destined to pull out the win. There's also of course sweepers like The Hurt Locker and Slumdog Millionaire, and if Lincoln sweeps, this is Andy, Gary, and Ron's to lose. So, that basically leaves Argo with no chance, but I'm not convinced that the musical can't win here.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Argo: Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn
Django Unchained: Wylie Stateman
Life of Pi: Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton
Skyfall: Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker
Zero Dark Thirty: Paul N.J. Ottosson

War movies rule this category - dating back to U-571 (2000). Since then it's gone to Pearl Harbor (2001), Letters from Iwo Jima (2006), and The Hurt Locker. The only recent loss that's worrisome is last year's War Horse (2011), but let's face it, that movie sucked anyway. Even though there's actually little war in Zero Dark Thirty, the sound editing is precise, adds great tension to the narrative, and is integral to the viewing experience of that final raid of bin Laden's pad in Abbottabad. There's not a great chance this goes to anyone else.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

The Avengers: Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, Daniel Sudick
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White
Life of Pi: Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott
Prometheus: Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, Martin Hill
Snow White and the Huntsman: Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Phil Brennan, Neil Corbould, Michael Dawson

This is a raucous category this year. The Avengers surely deserves to win for this. The Hobbit certainly deserves to win for this. This category, though, does heavily favor nominees also nominated for best picture (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [2008], AVABAR, Inception [2010], Hugo). The only flick here that really fits that bill is Life of Pi, and that film has been widely praised for only its visuals anyway. And to be fair, Richard Parker is worth that Avengers single take or the crazy double-sets of The Hobbit anyway.

Best Documentary, Features

5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

So we at last move on the crappy categories that are really up for grabs. No one really knows how these will turn out. There's usually only one or two big docs a year and those get the Oscar nods obvi. There isn't anything totally apparent this year, but Searching for Sugar Man supposedly has some buzz, and yeah I've kind of heard about it before, though it's a little foggy. That's good enough for my prognostication here.

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption

If there's anything worse than Feature Docs it's Short Subject Docs. What an awful, awful category. We might as well get the dartboard out. Open Heart would mean that both docs would feature stories from Africa. It's getting the best odds, though, so sure, I don't care.

Best Short Film, Animated

Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Paperman
The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare

This is the only really juicy category in this section of the Oscars because we actually get to see half of these before other animated films like Ice Age: Inconsequential Drift (2012) and Brave (2012). To that, we'll go with Maggie Simpson's Oscar Debut here, because Dave Silverman and the rest of The Simpsons lore deserve an Oscar. It's not actually favoured, but with my rule about kind of knowing about something and letting the most popular nominee win - The Longest Daycare is all over this.

Best Short Film, Live Action

Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry

So we're finally on our last category here. It's fitting that I get exhausted and don't care by this point, because really, these categories are impossible to predict. I actually did try to watch some of these this year, and then found myself doing ANYTHING ELSE with my time. Siding with Derby again, Curfew it is.

So folks, that's it. How will these predictions fare? My lifetime correct pick rate is 58%, which is pretty awful. Let's boost that over 60 this year. Over the weeks to come we'll also be taking a closer look at the acting, writing, directing, and Best Picture races. Those are really the only ones that matter. The ceremony comes on February 24th, hosted by Seth MacFarlane.

2012: The Last Year in Review: Movies!

Alright folks, we've come to the last day of the Year of Our Lord 2012. What is there left to talk about? Well, we made it for one thing - those Mayans were full of shit, though there's certainly been plenty of terrible crap happening all over the world lately. This is what the movies are there for, though - to give us a break from the horrible onslaught of awful things that happen to everyone every day, or at least give us some insight into the human condition so that we may try to become better people. So, like every movie review site ever out there, here is our list of the best, brightest, and greatest moments in film during 2012. Let's start with our own Top Ten list.

I guarantee you're not going to find another list like this around the Internet. Moreso than any other year I think this really reflects what I was looking for in a movie this year - I can apparently sum up my taste in small, classy, concentrated action films, subversive comedies, and other movies that really change the game. I'm interested in cultural reverb more than anything - which films are the center of diffusing new innovations and which ones am I not going to be able to turn off when they appear on TNT in two years? That's the basis of my list more than anything else.

#10: Haywire

You remember this one from all the way back in January? Gina Carano has a bit more to come along as an actor, but Soderbergh directs the hell out of this in a distinctive narrative style he developed during the Ocean's films and Contagion (2011). Gina also kicks the ass of Magneto, Obi-Wan Kenobi, G.I. Joe, and Zorro throughout the course of the film. I'll take it.

#9: Silver Linings Playbook

It's always nice to see Bradley Cooper actually acting, because he's not all that shabby at it. David O. Russell throws De Niro the best role he's had in ten years and Chris Tucker of all people into the mix along with material to properly show off Jennifer Lawrence as her generation's best actress in this romantic comedy refresher.

#8: The Grey

Liam Neeson spends two hours fighting wolves, deals with his own mortality, and of course he survives to go on to train Batman. In the process he's become an icon of badass masculinity in the vein of Arnold or Sly of yesteryear. How is that possible? I'm not sure, but he ought to be recruited for The Expendables 3: Wolf Wars (2014), naturally.


#7: Argo

The Best Bad Idea Ben Affleck had has put him on the map of go-to directors in a way his acting career never has. Really, he hasn't had stock this high since "writing" Good Will Hunting (1997). When he started acting outside of his Boston comfort zone he really failed (not necessarily). It's good to see that he is able to stretch outside of his Southie wheelhouse for this great flick, in both acting and directing.

#6: Looper

Clearly the best original sci-fi film of the year, even if it mershed elements of many tropes together, this still took an investible high concept, big-name actors and ran with it in new and exciting ways that ought to really launch a few careers (JGL for sure) and make a significant mark on the cultural landscape. I'm only looking for Rian Johnson to be a bit busier than our last sci-fi directing new genius, Neill Blomkamp, who hasn't done a thing before next year's release of Elysium (2013).

#5: Lincoln

Probably the most prestigious film on this list, Lincoln is everyone at their best, and that's a lot of people who have done pretty damn good things. Spielberg immerses us in a few overlooked days in the life of our 16th President, and Daniel Day-Lewis takes us into his flesh and mind like we've never seen before. The only real shame is that this thing won't give a soul any other chance in the acting fields in what was really a very solid year for many other men.

#4: 21 Jump Street

Absolutely the funniest film of the year, so of course I have this ranked extremely high. It's the kind of balls-out film that absolutely kills every line and every moment, made all the better by appearing out of no where with little hype at all. Who knew Channing Tatum could be so hilarious? "FUCK YOU SCIENCE."

#3: The Cabin in the Woods

It's rare that you see a film that subverts an entire genre like this one. It makes watching any other horror film seem even more cookie-cutter than they already are, while this uses a Thor-led team of pothead, slut, jock, and virgin against vengeful gods, a shady corporation, and every monster in the book. It's something that really needs to be experienced with a bunch of friends, copious amounts of alcohol, and a dark room - at least that was how I first saw it - it's a trip in itself, and that's the whole point of the medium.

#2: Django Unchained

It may just be due to recent memory, but I was very close to naming this sucker #1. A Southern Slavery Epic that we desperately needed, this film does more for race relations than Spike Lee will ever care to realize, and it pushes its themes and narratives hard enough to give Black People the Epic Hero they've always deserved. All praise to QT for even getting this thing made in the first place.

#1: The Master

Joaquin proves that yes, he is one of the greatest actors of all time, and if not for the difficult subject matter and immense love of Lincoln this year, ought to have locked up momentum for Best Actor a long time ago. The Master is the kind of film ripe to be ignored, but really deserves to be considered one of the best of all time, though possibly not for a casual night on AMC (yeah, going against my own criteria here, but this was too good to pass up). It's full of compelling scenes, but the driving question of who the Master is and what that means is what causes this film to linger in my mind months after watching it.

Honourable mentions: Bond returns to form in Skyfall, West Anderson returns to form in Moonrise Kingdom, Will Ferrell's feature-length meta-joke in Casa de mi Padre, Soderbergh's male stripper opus Magic Mike, Rob and Dave's ethereal Cosmopolis, the immense crazy fun of Seven Psychopaths, the Rabbits of Rhosgobel leading wackiness in The Hobbit, and we got him in Zero Dark Thirty.

Best Scenes of the Year:

#10: Say what you will about Battleship, but one of the more surprisingly moments was how organic they worked the grid battle into the film, as well as how that ended up being its coolest scene. Oh Taylor Kitsch, what an awful year you had.
#9: I've never seen a film that spirals into awfulness so quickly, but the opening crash scene in Flight was mind-blowing.
#8: I wish I had a higher quality clip, but Mark Wahlberg, his Teddy Bear, and Flash Gordon hanging out, doing coke, punching through walls, and fighting ducks really encapsulated how fun TED really was.
prometheus self-abortion
#7: Django Unchained really has too many good scenes to count, but to pick one I'd take his final ride as John Legend plays in the background - nothing has gotten me more pumped for the entire year.
#6: The Campaign was an underrated comedy this year, buried under attention to the Summer Olympics and well, our own actual Presidential Campaign. The baby-punching scene is nevertheless legendary, though, especially because it's awfully Romney-like.
#5: In another film that's tough to pick one scene, Batman's return in the Bat is really one of the few uplifting moments in the whole movie, made more significant from the two hours of depressing oppression and darkness before it. This is where Batman rises, and even though we don't even see the actual man, he's done what he set out to do in Batman Begins (2005) - he's a symbol of righteousness that here not only strikes fear into his enemies, but courage in his friends.
#4: This scene magnificently took up an entire early trailer, but as Princess Merida shoots for her own hand in Brave the entire film's central conflict and characters are established in an incredible two minutes of writing and beautiful animation before the film gets real weird.
#3: It's almost as if everything in The Avengers led up to and was encapsulated by a simple command voiced by Captain America: "Hulk - Smash." A big green smile sums up the funnest movie of the year.
#2: SPOILER if you haven't seen it, and I'd recommend slogging through the entire film beforehand, but the sheer hell unleashed at the end of The Cabin in the Woods is a riotous moment, one of the more memorable bits put on film in the past decade.
#1: And now for the most intense, grotesque scene ever, the self-Cesarian from Prometheus was disturbing and crazy. That clip is the best I could find, but it's even better with the Noomi's screams and desperate actions getting that machine to work before her widdle iddle squid son bursts through her tummy. It's certainly one of the more distinctive scenes in the past year, and one that sticks with you (whether you want it to or not) for some time to come.

Actors of the Year:

For the men, though Taylor Kitsch had a fantastic year of flops with John Carter, Battleship, and Savages, certifiably dooming his career, we ought to go a bit more positive, and looking upwards, no one's doing better than Joseph Gordon-Levitt. JGL featured significantly in the second-biggest blockbuster of the year, The Dark Knight Rises (c'mon, that role should have gone to Shia...), and a little less so in the most prestigious film of the year, Spielberg's Lincoln. On his own, he also popped two headlining films, one pretty shitty bikour film (Premium Rush) and one excellent time travel film (Looper). JGL can do just about anything he wants right now, with indie cred, blockbuster cred, and Oscar cred. He's really the 2012 version of Fassbender, but with a relatively thin upcoming schedule we'll see where he can go from here.

As the ladies go, this year was all about Jennifer Lawrence. She had two tiny shitty horror films (Devil You Know and House at the End of the Street), but we care less about that and are instead looking to The Hunger Games, which Jen has totally made her own on its way to becoming the next big teen book-to-movie franchise adaptation to make a buttload of cheddar at the box office. Like JGL, she both established butt-kicking cred and cred towards actual acting talent. She was really the best part of a very good Silver Linings Playbook and we'll see if Oscar also takes notice. It was an incredible year for her, and with plenty more franchise films from both the X-Men: First Class series and the rest of the Hunger Games, she's not going away anytime soon. I just hope she can also keep pulling off those smaller, high quality films as well.

Well, that's it, folks. We've got a little less than 9 hours to go now before the end of the year. What will 2013 turn out? Stay tuned as we look forward to next year's awesome line-up of crap. What were your favourite movies, scenes, and actors of 2012?