2022 Oscar Results! And Nothing Crazy Happened!

I'm lying, something really crazy did happen. Power of the Dog (2021) only had one win, for best director! This is surely controversial. Sam Elliot has a lot of sway in Hollywood, I guess. Such a shame that otherwise the ceremony was just trite and boring.

Yeah, okay, we know what happened. Everyone has a take and it's all pretty obvious. To me, I'm glad he got his Oscar because Will's not going to work again. Or he will because Hollywood is crazy, and seems to be mostly on his side for some reason. But this is the kind of thing you remember for a long time, which is bonkers because Will Smith has sooo many things that are worth remembering. So, let's talk much more about this throughout this whole article, but let's get into our all-time stats:

2021: 12/23

2020: 13/24 

2019: 13/24 

2018: 16/24 

2017: 13/24 

2016: 14/24 

2015: 13/24 

2014: 20/24 

2013: 14/24 

2012: 16/24 

2011: 14/24 

2010: 12/24

I'm really so bad at this. Anyway, let's do it.

Best Picture:

I'm realizing I forgot to make a prediction for this. It was DOG in my head. CODA ended up winning. CODA was surging a bit towards the end, but honestly I didn't think it would upset Power of the Dog, which I guess everyone actually just Sam Ellioted, so whatever.

0/1

Best Director:

Prediction: Campion

I got this one!

1/2

Actor:

I said Garfield, Smith was the front-runner but I just didn't trust it. I fumbled perhaps the most obvious category, but if Garfield had one I would have looked like a genius. Now I look like...a dumbass. I just feel like Tom Cruise is going to make a movie where he stars as John McEnroe's dad to get his Oscar, finally. And Will's presence throughout the ceremony and speech were totally normal.

1/3

Actress:

Kirsten Stewart did not win this. I'm happy for Chastain, I didn't pay much attention to her, but looking back, this does feel like an acknowledgment of an impressive body of work, mostly Dark Phoenix (2019). I don't know. The Academy always awards folks like this unless it doesn't.

1/4

 Supporting Actor:

At the time Smit-McPhee, of Dark Phoenix fame seemed like the unstoppable lock. In the past few weeks this turned into all-Kotsur. Clearly, CODA struck the chord I thought Dog would. Fuck this, I'm just making my predictions the week of next year.

1/5

Supporting Actress:

No real question, DeBose got this, well deserved and very exciting.

2/6

Adapted Screenplay:

Just read my words. "This could go to CODA but I think Campion goes all in." Half of that was true. The Academy just clearly ended up loving this movie. Also Will Smith slapped Chris Rock.

2/7

Original Screenplay:

Even leading up to this I thought this would go to Pizza. What's a boy got to do? I have no real interest in Belfast (2021) if Jamie Dornan doesn't sing about how his heart is torn between an Albino and midwesterner played by the same actress while running through the sand and climbing a palm tree like a cat who's decided to climb up a palm tree.

2/8

Animated Film:

I still haven't seen Encanto (2021) but I want to! Does that count? I actually read the wind on this one.

3/9

Animated Short Film:

Always a crap shoot, but I did say Wiper would be in the top three. I mean, whatever. As long as it kept Will Smith's wife's name out of its fucking mouth.

3/10

Costume:

I didn't really buy that this should be Cruella (2021) but all the pundits were unanimous, and imagine that, I listen to people and get a category right.

4/11

Short Film:

Suck it. Got this one. "Long Goodbye"

5/12

Score:

DUNE (2021). Okay, here come all the technical awards that DUNE won, which will generally save me, except for one which I doubted. Well-earned, it was a great score.

6/13

Sound:

I still want two categories. But what I want more is more obvious DUNE wins to salvage my terrible night. Almost as terrible as Chris Rock's left cheek.

7/14

Cinematography:

I deviated from the DUNE and got punished. I was clearly in on Doggy and got bit for it. That bite like the Philadelphia cream cheese running off Chris Rock's face. Oh boy.

7/15

Documentary:

Listen, I didn't actually watch the ceremony. What the hell was ?uestlove's acceptance speech like. Just stunned audience at this point? It's just mind-blowing. What does Ricky Gervais thnk?

8/16

Doc Short Subject:

This went to "Queen of Basketball" which fits in with Kobe Bryant's win a while back instead of Benazir, which sounds probably sad. I mean, alopecia isn't even fatal.

8/17

Editing:

Thanks, DUNE.

9/18

French Film:

This was a pretty clear lock as well. It kind of goes without saying, although Worst Person in the World (2021) could have swept in. I need to watch Drive My Car (2021) on HBOMax and you should, too!

10/19

Makeup and Hairstyling:

WHATEVER. I know. I know. I just couldn't fall in line and go with Tammy Faye. This was just some black hole for me, I knew nothing about it. I blame Hillbilly Elegy (2020) which got me off the "make-up makes the movie a lock" vote. You know who doesn't need hairstyling?

10/20

Original Song:

Stan Sitwell. I don't want to talk about losing this category, but I'm glad Billie Eilish is an Oscar Winner.

10/21

Production Design:

Thanks, DUNE

11/22

Visual Effects:

You complete me, DUNE

12/23

Well, I feel like a real Peacock. Same score as last year. Meh, looking back, I probably should have gotten four more right, the obvious locks for Actor, Supporting Actor, Makeup, and Song. I misread the lack of power for Power of the Dog and it bit me, losing a lot to CODA.

Also, we all know that Will Smith is insane, right? Like, just watch After Earth (2013). Or better yet, Winter's Tale (2014). That's right. We remember you in Winter's Tale. First of all, Chris Rock's joke was certainly tasteless. They're allowed to both be wrong. But like, no one would remember that joke tomorrow. Ya'll remembering this on stage assault during one of the most watched live programs we have left. This just feels like the culmination of cancel culture - we need to find the zone between genuinely caring about each other and creating jokes that don't personally offend, but also being able to laugh at ourselves and not freak out over things that we could probably just move on from and aren't a big deal in the long run.

I don't know. I at least like that song by The Anxiety.

Norwegian Morning Wood's Official 2022 Academy Award Predictions

Are you ready for the most solid predictions of all time? To be honest, like most folks I have really lost all interest in the Academy Awards. I mean, if they're not honouring PIG (2021) what is even the point. But as long as this is ostensibly a film website we will cover and care about film sort of! Let's start our predictions!

Best Picture

Belfast

CODA

Don't Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Best Directing

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Prediction: Campion

Licorice Pizza doesn't really have traction, foreign directors can be successful, but only if the film is really in the zeitgeist, Spielberg is a little overhonored and West Side Story underperformed. Branagh is a solid choice, but the momentum is really behind Campion, who is an apparently beloved and underrated director, who also directed the shit out of Dog.

Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick … Boom!

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Prediction: Garfield

Listen, everyone is thinking Will Smith. The Academy has just dicked over handing out the honorary prize lately. They snubbed Keaton, they snubbed Dafoe. They gave it to Gary Oldman over Chalamet, which is analogous here, but Garfield is also just riding really high lately while Will Smith is kind of over. I'm just feeling Garfield, this is probably an easy category that I have messed up but I don't care anymore.

Actress in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Prediction: Stewart

I dunno, this is my troll vote. She's the only interesting option here. I like Cruz, but she has a statue already and hasn't gotten a ton of buzz. This is truly up in the air and Stewart was the last one in, but now that she's in, I think she gets votes. And Spencer just got on Hulu! I think folks will watch it easy and vote it up. Or not, who cares.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Ciarán Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Prediction: Kodi

This is maybe a done deal? I'm not super impressed by anyone else. I'm not totally impressed by Nightcrawler here either, but it'd be shocking if Dog didn't come up with any acting wins.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Judi Dench, Belfast

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Prediction: DeBose

I really like Buckley and Dunst, and I hope that they both return here. Pulling for Dunst in particular, but this seems to be DeBose's category to lose. With my insane picks elsewhere, hopefully this is safer.

Writing, Adapted Screenplay

CODA, Sian Heder

Drive My Car, Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe

Dune, Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve

The Lost Daughter, Maggie Gyllenhaal

The Power of the Dog, Jane Campion

Prediction: Campion

This could go CODA. I think Campion pulls it all in on the big night. It's really the most notable screenplay of the lot and the obvious answer.

Writing, Original Screenplay

Belfast, Kenneth Branagh

Don't Look Up, Adam McKay and David Sirota

Licorice Pizza, Paul Thomas Anderson

King Richard, Zach Baylin

The Worst Person in the World, Joachim Trier

Prediction: PTA

Somehow PTA doesn't have an Oscar. I think that's corrected this year and this is probably gotten the most love without a clear path to any other award. The Academy just loves offbeat movies like this, and Licorice Pizza fits in that zone well. Belfast could sneak up, but this just seems like Pizza.

Animated Feature Film

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Prediction: Encanto

At one point this seemed close but Encanto has emerged as the preeminent animated film of the year. Luca and Raya were fun but neither really took off. Mitchells got a lot of hype, but never hit the big release and got mainstream buzz like Encanto. Recently also helps, it just seems like their year.

Animated Short Film

"Affairs of the Art"

"Bestia"

"Boxballet"

"Robin Robin"

"The Windshield Wiper"

Prediction: "Robin Robin"

Ugh this crap. Apparently this studio has a strong Oscar history, it was on Netflix, and is in the zone of entertainment we all like. I have a soft spot for "Affairs" and "Wiper", but let's go safe here.

Costume Design

Cruella, Jenny Beavan

Cyrano, Massimo Cantini Parrini

Dune, Jacqueline West

Nightmare Alley, Luis Sequeira

West Side Story, Paul Tazewell

Prediction: Cruella

I have a stealth favourite in Dune, if this follows Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) and Black Panther (2018), but movies explicitly about fashion like Phantom Thread (2017) succeed here, too. Beavan has gotten a lot of buzz (she won for Fury Road). This used to be comfortably period, the only real contender there would be Cyrano, but that's really not that big of a film here. Cruella has the pedigree, the history, and the effort to nail this.

Live Action Short Film

"Ala Kachuu - Take and Run"

"The Dress"

The Long Goodbye"

"On My Mind"

"Please Hold"

Prediction: "The Long Goodbye"

"The Long Goodbye" got in my head and it might to the same for voters. Riz Ahmed is in it, which is a nice boost of recognition. You and I both know no one has any idea who is going to win this.

Music, Original Score

Don't Look Up, Nicholas Britell

Dune, Hans Zimmer

Encanto, Germaine Franco

Parallel Mothers, Alberto Iglesias

The Power of the Dog, Jonny Greenwood

Prediction: DUNE

I just remember the Sardukar chant more than anything in Power of the Dog. DUNE ought to win a lot of technical stuff, and while Score isn't really in that zone, it's certainly the most notable here.

Sound

Belfast

Dune

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Prediction: DUNE

See above. This has the best sound. It's a bummer we don't get split categories anymore. Just less to get wrong, baby!

Cinematography

Dune, Greig Fraser

Nightmare Alley, Dan Lausten

The Power of the Dog, Ari Wegner

The Tragedy of Macbeth, Bruno Delbonnel

West Side Story, Janusz Kaminski

Prediction: DOG

For all the hype, Pow of the D might not walk away with too much. It's reliably gorgeous and got enough exposure on the hype train to make it work. DUNE might get it, it's favored, but I'm not convinced it sweeps every technical as it's expected to.

Documentary Feature

Ascension

Attica

Flee

Summer of Soul

Writing With Fire

Prediction: Summer of Soul

This is a big one between this and Flee, but folks like Questlove, it was a big movie when it came out, and is a genuinely interesting, feel good but not that good subject.

Documentary Short Subject

"Audible"

"Lead Me Home"

"The Queen of Basketball"

"Three Songs for Benazir"

"When We Were Bullies"

Prediction: Benazir

That sounds like something important, right? Let's go with that.

Film Editing

Don't Look Up, Hank Corwin

Dune, Joe Walker

King Richard, Pamela Martin

The Power of the Dog, Peter Sciberras

Tick, Tick... Boom!, Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

Prediciton: DUNE

So, music biopics have won with Bohemian Rhapsody (2018). Competitive sports movies have won with Ford v. Ferrari. Westerns haven't ever really been a thing and neither have comedies. Ugh, it does feel like Dune, which again follows the Fury Road model of crushing technical awards. I don't think it's a technical achievement on Fury Road's level, but it's probably good enough to win here.

International Feature Film

Drive My Car, Japan

Flee, Denmark

The Hand of God, Italy

Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, Bhutan

The Worst Person in the World, Norway

Prediction: Drive My Car

It's that thing where isn't the foreign film that gets the BP nod inherently the best International Film? Hopefully this comes deep in the night when my predictions have long since gone to shit.

Makeup and Hairstyling

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Coming 2 America

Cruella

Dune

Prediction: Cruella

Is this Coming 2 America's year?! I'm tempted to go with House of Gucci, but as Hillbilly Elegy (2020) proved last year, the most make-up isn't always the best make-up, which is a mistake I made. Still, this always goes to the move that's all about it's make-up. Everyone is prediction Tammy Faye. I guess it is all about her eyes, but it's certainly a low profile movie to win an award that usually goes to the highest profile film. Ew, I hate to say I think this might go to Cruella.

Music, Original Song

"Be Alive" -- Beyoncé Knowles-Carter and Darius Scott, King Richard

"Dos Oruguitas" -- Lin-Manuel Miranda, Encanto

"Down to Joy" -- Van Morrison, Belfast

"No Time to Die" -- Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell, No Time to Die

"Somehow You Do" -- Diane Warren, Four Good Days

Prediction: "Dos Oruguitas"

Everyone thinks this will go to Bond. Meh, I didn't think that song was that great. Encanto feels more of the moment. I am way too bold this year, folks.

Production Design

Dune, Zsuzsanna Sipos and Patrice Vermette

Nightmare Alley, Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau

The Power of the Dog, Grant Major and Amber Richards

The Tragedy of Macbeth, Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh

West Side Story, Rena DeAngelo and Adam Stockhausen

Prediction: DUNE

Like, how is it not DUNE

Visual Effects

Dune

Free Guy

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

No Time to Die

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Prediction: DUNE

It's such an easy slam dunk to actually honor a film that's good here. Also the sandworm and city effects in DUNE beat all these other movies.

Okay, so that's it! Locked in! Stay tuned for when we find out how I did, sometime in March with possibly a live-blog!