Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts

Friday, 14 November 2025

Book: Victory to Defeat (Richard Dannatt and Robert Lyman)

We had won, with a magical formula of 1918 combined arms warfare, hard earned through bitter experience of four years of fighting and then we lost or rather forgot it! Such criminal complacency meant that another generation of youth experienced a second World War. The people who "had practical experience of fighting it" drifted away and did other things. The world wanted to be pacifist. The politicians became politicians again and took their eye off the ball, they took the easy option, cutting to the bone military spending. The "war to end all wars" was supposed to be exactly that, although there was a dissenting feeling in Germany that in 1918 they had not been defeated in the field (the very same myth used by National Socialism and the "stabbing in the back" from a caste of politicians). However, in 1918 the Allied armies pummelled the German Imperial Army to its knees in the 100 Day Offensive with "combined arms" and overwhelming industrial power (infused with the additional of the American Expeditionary Force (AEF) - which was not specifically called out in the book). The armistice came, it signalled the end of the war (11/11/1918), then came the Treaty of Versailles with its own cauldron of snakes that poisoned international politics for decades to come. The League of Nations was born and withered on the vine through application of realpolitik between the Great Powers. In Britain there was a spirit of the war is all over now, let's get back to normal (proper) peacetime soldering as we have an empire to run. Contemplation of another war of this magnitude was an anathea. Politicians who thought different were not elected .No peer war was expected within the next ten years, so colonial policing was the order of the day for the British Army. The British Army was shrunk to a rump (prioritising Empire over continental commitments) and certain important or maverick personalities played with their own hobby horses and pet projects within the confines of the Treasury's frugal remit. Britain literally became an island nation behind a sea and air barrier, the Royal Navy in her senior service role and the over promising of the RAF (capable of punishing enemies with the bomber and protecting the homeland with the fighter) gained favour. There was no appetite for a tangible army capacity capable of force projection on the continental mainland to deter the rising power of Nazi Germany. Without such an army, even if scaled back, there was no way of keeping the hard-earned organisational knowledge of "how to do things" at scale. Then the chickens come home to roost through a series of international crisis and the early war defeats of 1939-40 (see below, a tale of the once and future king - the practice of combined arms warfare, found - lost - then painfully recovered from 1942 onwards; although the British 1940 successes of The Western Desert Force against the Italians - Wavell's 10,000 (Beda Fomm), the East African Campaign and reconquest of Ethiopia and Somaliland, again against the Italians, was not called out):


The allegory or case study to modern times (2022+) is called out, how different is the current political situation with Russia and continental Europe? The message is clear. Let us not make the same mistake again. The world of 2025 seems horribly similar to the 1930's and the lead up to the Second World War. This time we also live in a nuclear age where the stakes could not be higher. The general (Dannatt) also seems to indirectly pushing the value of wargaming in military circle - when you do not have the physical items it does not stop you from imaginative thought experiments (with reference back to the Germans formulating the doctrine of mobile warfare in the 1930's without any tanks - they wargamed and conducted imaginative field exercises). If you want peace, then be sure you are prepared for war. A protagonist thinks twice before attacking a prepared potential victim - or rather the "victim" is not viewed as a victim but rather a "respected or feared foe". Deterrence has to be credibly backed up or the paper tiger will be called out.  Knowing what form of armed forces (Army, Navy, Air, Cyber, Space, Civil) you need is the key to knowing what capabilities you have to nurture or retain for future use (and their scalability for wartime needs). That comes from an unending intellectual engagement across the whole spectrum of government. I for one cannot fault the main theme of the message!

David Isby gave an informative and interesting review of the book too:     

https://www.strategypage.com/bookreviews/2537#gsc.tab=0

Saturday, 5 April 2025

A Book of its Time: Them: Adventures with Extremists

In retrospect the world of 2012 seems such a quainter quieter place, where when we worried it was about the possible "what ifs?", that we really did not think would come to pass, despite the history of 9/11 (2001) and "The War on Terror". The world still seemed "bounded and explainable" to all those fortunate not to be in a war zone. Afghanistan was heading down a road "we thought" we [The West] controlled and could and would be put to rights. Afterall there was only one global Superpower in town - the USA and its weight was unstoppable  (see below, Jon Ronson gives an off the wall, humourous assessment of idiosyncratic and peculiar dangers the world was facing. The danger was from within, it seemed adolescent and seemed to be small. You could make jokes about it. a bit like a BBC2 family sit-com):  


It seems that what you are not looking for, like another major war in Europe the like of which has not been seen since the Second World War, a Superpower Trade Wars and the complete failure of Western intervention in non-westernised cultures, these are the things we should have really been worried about!

Sunday, 16 March 2025

Chessboards that are of a Global Nature: The Important Place of Ukraine has as a Playing Piece

I was fascinated to hear repeated from several sources a comment from a presidential advisor called Zbigniew Brzezinski. He reported to the US President Jimmy Carter in teh 1980's, and stated the importance of Ukraine to Russia. Simply put without Ukraine, Russia cannot call itself an empire, with it, then it can. Ukraine has (or at least had) 40 million people, while Russia 140 million, but Russia desperately wants to claim these 40 million as its own, as well as the strategic importance of the land and sea access (see below, perhaps Brzezinski can shed more light on how Russia and America "really see the rest of the world"): 


I will have to read "The Grand Chessboard" the old fashioned way with the Mark One eyeball!

Footnote: The date of paperback publication I am reading was back in 1997, last century. I feel old saying that!

Wednesday, 23 August 2023

Audible Book Completed: The Art of War by Sun Tzu

Despite this being a quick Audible listen of just one hour and eight minutes, it is as powerful and revolutionary now as when it was first written with teh ink drying on its pages (see below, the old master - I took the opportunity to download it with my Audible subscription as a "Freebie"): 


Compare Sun Tzu's notes on war with the actual way we (modern man) conducts war and politics, even or especially in light of the World Wars of the twentieth century and the disturbing "current" of the twenty first century history, and I challenge you not to feel the cold tinge of fear at the bottom of your spine. Are we bound to repeat teh same mistakes throughout history? Study war to find a way to stop war - or at teh very least, not to lose one!

There definitely is a simple game in there just using his terms to describe the battlefield. 

Monday, 27 February 2023

Abyss by Max Hastings - Cuban Missile Crisis: Audible

On the back of Nuclear Folly I was recommended to go and also read the Max Hasting's account of the Cuban Missile Crisis in his "Abyss", to hear as it were a slightly more westernised version of events, although still with his keen critical, investigative journalistic integrity (see below, a longer listen but it was well worth it): 


Again he took no prisoners and was at pains to be far reaching in research as well as being balanced. Another epic listen broken up over several weeks. Why the thought of Russian nuclear missiles 90 miles from the US shore created the stir it did in the US was a main theme, whereas Europeans were well accustomed to it. This was the basic error of Khrushchev's thinking that lead to him to make such a mad adventurous gamble was explained. The tangled escalation of events, twisted tortuously in an insane manner that no fictional book would think worthy of a plausible plot-line. The cast of war-minded American Generals who felt goaded into action and belittled by not invading Cuba. The minor comical character that took world stage that became the latter villain of the piece to my mind was Castro. Just when a safe passage was in sight, navigated by others he tried to vaingloriously grab the tiller and cast teh ship onto the rocks. After listening to it, I am not sure how we made it here, As Kennedy himself stated, he thought there had been a one in three chance of nuclear war. 

A lighter read needed next! 

Tuesday, 9 November 2021

Book: Upheaval by Jarred Diamond

Finally finished this. It was a good read, not a vivid page turner but it rewarded the persistent reader with a few golden nuggets of information that made you stop and stare, as well as a lot of history I was totally unaware of, Indonesia a being a prime example (see below, a nice bit piece of Japanese artwork associated with Commodore Perry's arrival to Japan in 1853 and a rather rude awakening to Western industrialisation by virtue of being on the receiving end of large caliber high explousive shells):  


The premise of the book is that countries and humans share a certain capacity to survive or be destroyed by unexpected "upheavals" and it is how they (either a country of a person) react to the "unexpected traumatic event" that is the key to their survival or destruction. Though provoking as he lists out his key characteristics ... best read the book for that description ;)

Tuesday, 18 September 2018

Remember: 1973 Was not too good a year either!

I was bemoaning the state of the world: Brexit, Trump, Putin, UK Political Parties (May and Corbyn as well as north of the border) and thinking how messed up everything was. Then a good friend reminded me of how bad it was all in the past and how things at least got better! (Eventually for the people who didn't get killed in the meantime). He wrote in an email:  

1973 wasn't a particularly "good year" - 

August 15 – The U.S. bombing of Cambodia ends, officially halting 12 years of combat activity in Southeast Asia.

Middle East: 

USA
  • January 20 – President Richard Nixon is sworn in for his second term.
June 25 – Watergate scandal: Former White House counsel John Dean begins his testimony before the Senate Watergate Committee.

today is easy peasy ...

Answer: Keep Calm and Wargame It! More details followed ...

Money


Inflation has risen to 8.4%

IRA 

March – Two IRA bombs exploded in London, killing one person and injuring 250 others. Ten people were arrested hours later at Heathrow Airport on suspicion of being involved in the bombings.
War
And so it goes ...